However there were still reports of a few hundred tickets available for both Scotland Vs Haiti and Scotland Vs Morocco. These sold out within a couple of hours, by the lucky few that weren’t directed to the wrong queue by FIFA!

Yes, FIFA kindly emailed people to inform them of yesterday’s sale, but included a link that defaulted to the PMA (participating members association) sales queue. Similarly, if you loaded the FIFA tickets website, lots of people were automatically forced into a queue, which was again for the PMA tickets; but the user wasn’t to know this. After hours of waiting, fans were then asked for their PMA code, which would be for the fans of those teams that qualified this week (Bosnia, Czechia, Sweden and Turkey). The Scottish PMA sale was conducted through the SSC some months ago, with 3,889 tickets for the games in Boston, and 3,736 tickets for the game in Miami Vs Brazil. There were nearly 10,000 SSC applications for each game and so thousands are left trying to obtain tickets through other means.

Those that were lucky enough to get tickets yesterday, seem to be anyone that was able to login and specifically choose the “last-minute sales” queue, while being patient enough to wait for up to three hours to get access to the website.

FIFA also introduced “dynamic pricing” at this stage, because of course they did. Despite the widespread criticism they’ve faced worldwide on pricing already, they still increased the face value of sought after matches by over 10%. This included Scotland games, and so the $600 tickets were now $665. Shameless.

As FIFA finalises hospitality sales, final stadium configuration and segregation, there may be further ad-hoc tickets released and added to the website between now and the day of the game. There is no way to set an alert for this, and so anyone who is able to buy face-value tickets from FIFA between now and the tournament will do so by pure chance.

The resale portal also re-opens today, as it has been shut since February. This is where you can buy tickets from other fans, who are looking to sell unwanted tickets, through FIFA’s official site, with an unlimited price ceiling. They can charge anything they want, with 15% going to FIFA. A further 15% is then taken from the buyer, too.

As it’s been shut for a couple months, lots more tickets might enter the resale portal today and over the coming months, which through supply and demand may bring the prices back down towards face value, the closer we get to the tournament. However, due to the 30% FIFA levy, even if the prices drop, obtaining a ticket through the resale portal at face value will still be difficult - as that would mean the seller will be making a loss.

Lastly, those with existing tickets are now able to login to their FIFA ticketing account and see their exact seat numbers. Roshan, one of the subscribers on this website, has used the group chat to provide links for you to access an interactive view from your seat. The links are include below, alongside the stadium layout where I’ve highlighted the official Scotland SSC sections with a salmon pink coloured circle. The article ends with a clip of me on BBC radio this morning chatting to Phil Goodlad who is now a good friend of mine due to how often we have spoke over the last few years!

If you are not already in the group chat, you can join it via this link. It’s only for paying subscribers, and there’s already been some face value ticket sales between members in there. Members are also quick to help each other by posting links when tickets become available or when the price drops on the resale portal. Any paying subscriber can create a thread, and can reply to existing threads. The substack layout can be confusing, so just check you have hit reply within the existing thread, otherwise your reply will start a whole new thread, within the overall group chat, and won’t be seen by the person you’re replying to.

BOSTON

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With the Stats Packs, I’ll aim to cover all four SPFL divisions, all Scotland national team matches, and all Scottish teams in European football. There will be at least 3-5 stats per match.

The first Stats Pack will be an extended one, for tonight’s Scotland match against Ivory Coast. This one is free for all subscribers, but going forward the stats packs will join everything else on the website, in being only for paying subscribers. Thank you

IVORY COAST VS SCOTLAND: Hill Dickinson Stadium - Tuesday 7:30pm, live on BBC Scotland

THE VENUE - LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND

• Scotland are playing in Liverpool for the first time since a 2-0 World Cup qualifying win over Wales in October 1977 at Anfield. Their only other men’s internationals in the city were against England in 1895 and 1911.

• This will be Scotland’s first men’s match in England since the 0-0 Euro 2021 draw with England at Wembley on 18th June 2021.

• Scotland have won only 2 of their last 10 matches in England; and none this century. We beat Switzerland 1-0 at Villa Park in Euro ‘96 and England 1-0 at the Old Wembley in the Euro 2000 playoff in November 1999.

SCOTLAND

• This is Scotland’s first senior men’s match against Ivory Coast. “The Elephants” will be the 85th different national team Scotland have faced and the sixth from Africa.

• Scotland’s overall record against African nations is W2 D1 L4, with seven goals scored and 12 conceded. Their last such match was a 2-2 friendly draw with Nigeria in London in May 2014.

• Scotland are facing back-to-back non-European opponents for the first time since friendly losses against Peru (0-2) and Mexico (0-1) in May and June 2018.

• Charlie Mulgrew is the last Scotland player to score against African opposition, netting after 10 minutes against Nigeria in 2014 (our 2nd goal was an own goal).

• Scotland’s last winning goal against African opposition was Kris Boyd’s 71st-minute strike against South Africa in August 2007.

• Scotland have won only 2 of their last 12 friendlies overall, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their only victories in that run were against Gibraltar and Liechtenstein.

• Che Adams is Scotland’s most recent friendly scorer, having hit a hat-trick against Liechtenstein in June 2025.

THE OPPOSITION

• Ivory Coast qualified for the 2026 World Cup by going unbeaten through all 10 qualifiers, conceding zero goals.

• They were knocked out of AFCON 2025 in the Quarter-Final by Egypt (3-2), with Mo Salah scoring the winner.

• Ivory Coast have only lost 2 of their last 13 matches. They kept nine clean sheets in those 13 games, winning 8 of them.

• Key players include Amad Diallo (Man United), Franck Kessié (Al-Ahli) Ibrahim Sangaré (Nottingham Forest), Simon Adingra (Monaco), and Evann Guessand (Crystal Palace).

IF THIS HAPPENS, THEN…

• If Ivory Coast score, it will be the 100th goal conceded under Steve Clarke’s Scotland (scored 108).

• If Scotland do not score, it will be the first time they have failed to score in consecutive matches since March 2024, when they lost 0-4 to the Netherlands and 0-1 to Northern Ireland.

• If captain Andy Robertson plays, he would win his 92nd cap for Scotland, moving him into outright second for the most in men’s national team’s history (overtaking Jim Leighton on 91). Only Kenny Dalglish (102) has played more often.

• Read more about the records available to Robertson in the below article:

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Further reading on caps, win records and 20-year old jerseys:

Robertson currently sits joint second, tied on 91 caps with Scotland’s oldest ever player at a World Cup - Jim Leighton. As an aside, I still like to think of myself as being somewhat ‘young’. I was ten years old at France ‘98, asking my dad “what’s on the Scotland goalies forehead?”, referring to Jim Leighton’s Vaseline smeared brow. However, I was made to feel old at my work this week, when browsing ’s World Cup souvenir magazine. While reading through Daniel Gray’s brilliant depiction of a documentary from France ‘98, I remarked to colleagues that I can’t believe Jim Leighton wore the same under top to games for over 20 years! A much younger colleague replied, “who is Jim Leighton?.”

Naturally, to fully encapsulate Jim Leighton at a World Cup, I had to google ‘Jim Leighton vaseline eyes’, and the results made my younger colleague’s head explode, as he asked me “what’s that on his forehead?!”

Anyway, Robbo has just turned 32 and so probably still has a few more years left in a Scotland jersey. Although maybe not as many years as Leighton’s bogging under-jersey lasted. In the next year, Andy Robertson should become Scotland’s most capped male player ever, and is likely to be the first of a few players to break King Kenny Dalglish’s 102 cap record in the coming years. For example, John McGinn, who is six months younger than Robbo, is on 84 and should pass Kenny by Euro 2028.

If Robertson appears in every Scotland match this year, he will become Scotland’s most capped male player by the end of 2026 - even if we are eliminated in the World Cup group stages.

Including tomorrow’s match against Ivory Coast, there are at least 12 Scotland matches remaining this year; a further two pre-World Cup friendlies, at least 3 matches at the tournament, and then six fixtures in the Nations League in autumn.

Robertson’s record breaking appearance could come in the final UEFA Nations League match away to Switzerland in November. If we progress at the World Cup and play four or five matches, then he’d receive the honour in front of a sold-out Hampden park against either Slovenia or North Macedonia. Barring injury, McGinn will go 3rd in the list ahead of Leighton this year, too

THE RECORD AVAILABLE IN JUNE

As well as standing alone as the second most capped man in the national team’s history, Robertson could claim another record this summer

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Our last friendly was a successful 4-0 drubbing of Liechtenstein last June, in which Che Adams scored the first hat-trick by a Scotland player in a friendly for the men’s national team in nearly 60 years.

It was the 10th Scotland men’s hat-trick in all competitions in just over ten years; after we had gone 46 years without one! You can revisit an article from last year to read more detail about hat-tricks involving the Scotland national team, including the eight men to have scored three in a match against Scotland.

Fuck you, Robert Earnshaw.

Today’s article will instead look at Scotland’s friendly record, as Steve Clarke’s men look to end a 10-year winless streak in home friendlies.

OVERALL FRIENDLY RECORD

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To the general public, they release the data of the one most valuable player at every club across 70 leagues. Some estimations in Scotland almost certainly appear to require revaluation - Kabore being Hearts’ most valuable asset with a fair price of under 2m euros for starters.

However given the credibility of their research, it seems reasonable to suggest that most of the time their valuations won’t be too far off the money. For example, when we looked back at their valuations from October 2024, they correctly predicted Hamza Igamane would go for €11m (despite not yet starting for Rangers, never mind scoring a goal) and that Arne Engels would be worth up to €20m - despite many Celtic fans offering to drive him to the airport for half of that. Lennon Miller was the most valuable player at Motherwell, although slightly understated at a top price of €3m. They had Kieran Bowie down as Hibs’ most valuable asset, despite him being out with a hamstring injury and having playing just 60 minutes of football at Easter Road.

The Nutmeg World Cup special offers an unparalleled 196-page blend of quality writing, fine design and wonderful photography. Offering nostalgic tales from new angles and unique insight on modern times it is the perfect escape from the everyday before the tournament gives us many more.

Click here to buy your copy.

Although their work is not gospel, with that evidence I am inclined to trust their judgement overall. I was therefore eager to find out the value they placed on the rest of the players in Scottish football - not just the single most valuable player at each club.

Their data and research is respected across football, and they offer access to their model and valuations on a subscription basis for football clubs and agencies across the globe. Unfortunately, “Gavin at ScottishFootball.info” did not quite meet that eligibility criteria and so they wouldn’t even reveal their pricing to me. Fair enough. However they threw me a sympathy bone, and kindly provided me their data for the top 10 most valuable players in the Premiership.

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After finishing sixth in 2023 - their best top flight finish since 1985 - they went one better in 2024 when they reached fifth; qualifying for Europe for the first time since 1988. Last season’s sixth place finish was then secured ahead of Hearts and Motherwell, meaning St. Mirren became the only team outwith Rangers and Celtic to finish in the top six in each of the past three seasons.

It’s a remarkable performance on the park, but it’s clear even from the layout of the annual report that this isn’t the only focus of the club. Have no doubt, St. Mirren are serious about helping their community.

Most Chairman’s Statements begin with a review of the results on the pitch, or highlight any financial success stories off the park. Instead, St. Mirren’s John Needham starts by reiterating their desire to become “the best community centred development football club in Scotland”. St Mirren’s strategy has three pillars; Paisley, People and Performance; with performance mentioned last.

Financially, the Buddies are a well run club that lives within their means. and this analysis will now examine the accounts in more detail including:

• Revenue: SPFL, cups, UEFA & the fans

• Expenses: rising but under control

• Player Trading: consistent but not transformative

• Profits: record profit, unlikely to be repeated

• Robinson’s parting gift: A trophy & Aberdeen compensation

The Nutmeg World Cup special offers an unparalleled 196-page blend of quality writing, fine design and wonderful photography. Offering nostalgic tales from new angles and unique insight on modern times, it is the perfect escape from the everyday before the tournament gives us many more.

Click here to buy your copy.

If you are not yet a member here, please consider taking out a 7-day free trial to read this and 300+ other articles & videos before deciding if you think £25 per year is fair value for money.

REVENUE

St. Mirren have posted record revenues for the fourth straight year now - a welcome trend in Scottish football that several clubs are achieving post-pandemic. The turnover of £8.6m was a massive 34% increase from the £6.4m recorded the year before.

While very impressive turnover figures for a club of St. Mirren’s size, it’s a number unlikely to be repeated in the short term. As I’ll show in this article, much of the increase was driven by UEFA payments that will be significantly reduced in the next set of accounts.

However, even with turnover which was inflated above what St. Mirren can expect in a ‘normal’ season, finishing in 6th ahead of Hearts (who had triple the turnover) was still a fantastic achievement.

SPFL prize money increases by league position and so St. Mirren achieving a third straight top six finish was hugely beneficial financially. The SPFL have continued to grow the overall pot year-on-year and so St. Mirren’s 6th place finish was worth £2.19m - only a slight decrease on the £2.27m received for the fifth place finish in 2023/24, thanks to the growth in the SPFL pot.

Although St. Mirren’s league campaign yet again delivered more than expected SPFL prizemoney, the domestic cup earnings were disappointing. In the League Cup, St. Mirren were paid just £60k; less than The Spartans, St. Johnstone, Queen’s Park and Airdrieonians. This was because the Buddies had the double whammy of being knocked out in the first hurdle at Tannadice in the last 16, but also the fact that it was a non-televised match.

St. Mirren also fell at the last 16 in the Scottish Cup, losing at home on penalties in a televised match against Hearts. Their last 16 elimination payment from the SFA was £52,000, while they received a further £24,000 TV facilitation payment; meaning total domestic cup revenue of £136,00.

Of course the main driver of a record year of turnover in Paisley was European football. Despite ultimately falling 4-2 on aggregate to an impressive Brann side from Norway, the enjoyable 4-1 victory over Icelandic side Valur earned St. Mirren over £800,000.

This was a drop in the ocean compared to the gigantic sums Celtic (£40m) and Rangers (£17m) earned from European football, but it shows how even featuring in the qualifiers is huge for a club like St. Mirren.

Although failing to reach the group stages was disappointing, it meant that St. Mirren were also eligible to receive UEFA’s solidarity payments. These are distributed via the SFA to all Scottish Premiership clubs that don’t play in group stage football. Last year I told that there would be record solidarity payments for Scottish clubs, as part of UEFA’s reformatting of European competition, resulting in two separate payments. This will have boosted St. Mirren’s revenue significantly as the solidarity payments were worth around ~£1m.

The risk to St. Mirren is that the UEFA cheques will definitely be reduced in the next set of accounts in a years time, for three reasons. Firstly, St. Mirren didn’t play any European football this season and so that €900,000 Conference League elimination fee won’t be repeated.

Additionally, the solidarity payments rise with a nation’s coefficient ranking and increase further if one of its clubs reaches the Champions League phase. Scotland has been ranked as high as 9th recently, and such a high coefficient meant the Champions were guaranteed direct entry into the Champions League for three straight years.

Unfortunately though, Scotland’s coefficient has since fallen and both Rangers and Celtic were eliminated in Champions league qualifiers this season. This means solidarity payments to Scottish clubs will be reduced this season by around a third, because of our lower ranking and no club in the UCL.

Reviewing all of the above shows that over £5.5m of St. Mirren’s income can therefore be traced to prizemoney for their performance on the field and the revenue from UEFA. However with total income at nearly £8.6m, the importance of the club reaching and connecting with it’s loyal fanbase cannot be understated. The fans are - and will always be - the single most important revenue stream to the club; regardless of on field performance.

THE FANS

At the start of the current season, the cheapest price for an adult renewal at The SMiSA Stadium was £360, which was the 4th cheapest in the division, beaten only by the two promoted clubs and Hearts. Under 12s could get a season book for thirty quid, which is an essential strategy to ‘future proof; the club. The low price was even despite the 7.46% increase from 2024/25, and it’s that season which falls into the financial accounts under review.

With a core season ticket base of around 4,500, St. Mirren’s attendances have been impressive for several years now; in 23/24 they had the least empty seats in the division, as a % of the capacity. This is despite the club restricting away fans to one stand, a move which the Black and White Army showed actually increased home support by 53%.

Regularly recording attendances of 7,000, coupled with the two home European games resulted in 24/25 matchday revenue of £1.64m - a club record.

The recent UEFA landscape report stated that the Scottish Premiership’s percentage of income that comes from ticket money (36%) is by far the highest in Europe, considerably more than the likes of England (14%), Germany (14%), Portugal (13%) and Denmark (11%).

With the fourth lowest season ticket base in the division, St. Mirren’s ticket sales will contribute slightly less to their total income than the 36% national average. However, when St. Mirren’s money generated from commercial revenue (£665,000) and sponsorship (£464,000) is well below many teams in the league, the value of the fans is huge.

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EXPENSES

What St. Mirren have done better than many clubs in Scotland is effective cost control. Their revenue has risen steadily since returning to the top flight in 2018, but the expenses never ballooned out of control. In 21/22 when the gap between revenue (£4.3m) and expenses (£6.3m) was too big, adjustments were made to bring the costs down for the next year.

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This article was written for Scottishfootball.info by Josh Duncan, an aspiring sports writer, who has his own Substack account that you can follow. Please follow him there and on X.com - where you can find more of his threads in the coming months.

His previous writing for the website includes a well-received tactical analysis of Falkirk F.C this season. Josh’s latest article will be the first in a series of ‘squad building’ exercises, looking specifically at Rangers F.C.

After the climax of this crazy Scottish Premiership season, Rangers will be faced with an all too familiar situation in the summer. After sacking the sporting director and CEO in November 2025, the new ownership seemingly admitted that most of the decisions made at the club last year - especially in recruitment - were a mistake. It’s therefore reasonable to conclude that the club are likely in for yet another summer rebuild.

Regardless of the quality of the squad, it is clear that changes will need to be made to prepare for a full season under Danny Röhl. Much of the current squad was recruited for Russell Martin and that will need to be rectified. There are also a considerable amount of loan players in the squad, who will need to be replaced in some way.

This summer will be the first major test of the clubs new committee style transfer strategy. This is how the club restructured its recruitment process after the sacking of Kevin Thelwell, operating in this way during the January window. This time however, they will have had more time to better prepare for the summer window.

I thought it would be an interesting exercise to explain how I would go about transitioning this squad. Explaining how I would build through each position group and giving transfer targets; talking through the process for each one. One of the biggest clubs in Scotland have struggled to build a sustainable core of players for several years now - but I’m sure that I can fix everything in a few articles!

The opening article of this series will focus on explaining my overall thoughts on building the squad. As well as an explanation of the scouting process and how I will use data to inform those decisions. I will conclude by giving my goalkeeping targets.

Squad Building

The first step in building the squad is obviously looking at what you already have. For the purpose of this series, there will have to be some assumptions here, and I will discuss these for each position in turn. I will be trying to explain what I think Rangers should do with the squad, while keeping things as realistic as I can.

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The above is the Rangers squad for the title run-in. The 27-man squad includes six loan players who will need replacing, especially given four of the nine defenders are loanees (Meghoma, Cornelius, Djiga and Aarons). Additionally, there are a few contracts about to expire for which decisions will need to be made. Then we have loan players returning from other clubs - although a few of them I expect will be candidates for sale.

We will be building for Danny Röhl’s style of play, which focuses on counter pressing and direct attacks. So as much as we want to find good players, they must also be a fit for the style or at least have potential to develop the necessary skills.

The goal will be to have a squad that has quality over quantity, targeting specific profiles for each position. This may mean a thinner squad but this will afford opportunities for academy players to form the depth. The use of utility players like Dujon Sterling will supplement the squad as well. Adding a bit of experience will be needed as well, given the average age of the squad.

This is the foundation I will be working from to begin with. There are definitely a few areas that may be confusing at first viewing. The squad having 3 players who are due to be out of contract is one of them, while there are several players I believe should be sold.

As we go through each position group, I will explain my thought process behind which players should stay and which should leave.

Some of the players that I advocate for being sold are interchangeable. What’s more important is freeing up the spaces at each position. We want to build a new core that fits Röhl’s system. Plus it would be no fun doing this and only changing 3 or 4 players!

Scouting and Data Usage

When you see scouting online, it is generally very data focused. The use of data is a massive part of modern football but relying on it entirely to make decisions would be a mistake. Often you see a lot of conclusions made about players purely from data or specific stats; this is something we want to avoid.

For each different position, we want to define a profile that encompasses everything a player needs to have for that specific role. This means figuring out technical qualities required to perform these roles, as well as looking at age and physical traits.

Once we have each profile, this is when the data becomes useful. We can set data parameters to identify players who have the traits we need. Once these players have been identified, we can learn as much as possible about them and decide who is the best option.

The way we gain information is by watching as many games as possible from each player. This gives us an understanding of their qualities in many different settings. You can also learn a lot of things that won’t show in the data, as well as gaining context on the data itself.

After all of this, I will present a couple of targets at each position, with an explanation of the data and some video analysis as well. Multiple targets at each position gives us options in terms of building the squad. Each group will end with my conclusion on which target is best and a discussion about how they fit into the overall squad.

Now that we have in idea of how everything will work, we can see it in action by looking at the first position in the team; the goalkeepers.

Goalkeeping Situation

The Rangers goalkeeping situation is a bit awkward heading into this summer. Jack Butland is entering the final year of his contract, while Liam Kelly and Kieran Wright both have their contracts ending this year.

Butland has been very hit and miss throughout his time at the club. At his best he can make some great saves but his worst has seen some costly howlers. His handling and positioning have both been suspect and his ability with the ball at his feet can be poor for a modern keeper.

With one year left on his deal, trying to move him on would be best for the club, in my opinion. He will be 34 by the end of his current contract and while it would be easier than finding a replacement, committing more years to him as the number one is risky.

Liam Kelly has been a serviceable backup, as well as contributing to the homegrown rules in UEFA competition. Extending his contract to keep some continuity in the goalkeeper group feels like a smart move. He is perfectly good enough for the cup games and giving the no.1 a rest.

Finally, the third spot has been occupied by 26-year old Kieran Wright for a while now. I think it’s time to give this position to academy talent. Bringing through young goalkeepers for some first team training experience and maybe some cup minutes could be beneficial for the club long-term.

Goalkeeper Profile

So, if we’re replacing the number one goalkeeper, what are we looking for in that replacement?

The first thing we want is reliability. The inconsistency in form for Jack Butland is something we want to avoid. You may get less incredible saves but a goalkeeper who stops all the ‘shots he should save’ is the baseline. Goalkeepers are the most difficult position to measure statistically, but we will still use data to help us find candidates.

To help here we will be using the Goals Prevented statistic, which is based on xGOT (Expected Goals On Target). This measures how well goalkeepers are handling shots based on the chance quality and execution. Like with xG, the higher the number the better.

I looked at goalkeepers who had a goals prevented measured at more than 0, both accumulated and per 90 minutes. This allows us to see some options who are performing at least as well as expected.

For the rest of the profile, things are a bit more simple. We want a keeper young enough to develop, but with decent first team experience. So I looked at options aged 26 and under, who have at least two seasons with over 1,000 minutes played.

Next we want our goalkeeper to be strong in the air; having someone who can claim balls into the box and end the threat is key. So we’re looking at keepers who are 6’2 or taller and who have above average aerial duels p90. This won’t tell us how good their decisions are in the air but it gives us a starting point to find an aggressive keeper.

Finally, we want someone who is more confident with the ball at their feet. We aren’t looking for a Manuel Neuer regen here but we do want someone who can play from the back with comfort, while being able to pick out teammates with longer passes. I looked at goalkeepers with over 30 passes p90 and with an 85% or higher accuracy on those passes.

The Targets

After using the profile to narrow down potential targets, I ended up looking further into about 14 different goalkeepers. I watched a few full matches from each of them and decided on two potential targets that I thought would fit well.

Nikolas Polster

Nikolas Polster is a 23 year old Austrian goalkeeper, playing for Wolfsberger AC in the Austrian Bundesliga. Standing at 6’2, he is a decent size for a goalkeeper while still having agility and speed of foot.

After a mixed bag to start out his time at Wolfsberger, this season he has settled into solid form. Accumulating over 2 prevented goals so far this season, according to Wyscout. Now entering the final year of his contract, I believe has has a lot of the skills necessary to be Rangers next goalkeeper. With rumoured interest from Brighton and Rapid Wien in January, there might be some competition for his services.

Polster is a solid shot stopper, there are some areas he excels in and a couple parts of his game that he can develop. These strengths and weaknesses are revealed in the clips above.

In close angled shots his positioning is excellent, he covers the near post while staying ready to get down quickly. His decision making when deciding between saving with his hands or feet is very good.

He is quick and decisive when coming off his line and understands his angles. Because of this he is strong in 1v1 situations. He is also very solid with ranged attempts and will generally save everything you’d expect him to.

His biggest weakness comes from parrying. He will generally deal with first attempt but when saving with his hands, Polster often parries the ball back into danger. In fairness, he rarely seems to get help from his defence in these situations - but it is a weakness. In the set of clips, I have included a couple of the goals conceded from this issue.

The only other consistent issue is his reaction to back post crosses. Sometimes Polster gets really tight to the near post side when defending a cross; when he has to shift across his goal, he arrives too late for a back post shot.

Polster’s best attributes are his handling and aerial ability. He makes quick decisions on balls in the air and is great when he gets there. Polster shows great strength when contesting for catches in the air and almost never drops them, even when fouled.

His instincts when choosing between catching and punching are really good as well. The number of times he alleviates pressure for his team in this way is fantastic. You can see some of these moments in the clips above.

His distribution is another strength, he is comfortable with both feet and varies his passing choices a lot. He has the confidence to put his foot on the ball and bait a press, then has the skill to play passes into it. His long passing is solid on both feet as well; he rarely launches the ball aimlessly, preferring to try and pick someone out.

Jari De Busser

Jari De Busser is a 26 year old Belgian goalkeeper who plays for Go Ahead Eagles in the Eredivisie. He is slightly taller than Polster at 6’3 and is extremely strong, he is also particularly agile for his size.

Like Polster, there is only one year left on De Busser’s contract. This makes him a prime candidate to move club this summer, with links to Feyenoord and Lorient of late.

The Belgian is a genuinely fantastic shot stopper. His performance in the final of last years KNVB Beker final carried GAE to their first trophy since 1933. This performance included some remarkable saves as well as saving 3 penalties. The selection of clips above are some of his best stops in a GAE jersey.

You can see in these clips how he stays low in his stance. Allowing him to react quickly and get down to shots in time. From this position he also generates good power in his legs to spring up to higher shots.

De Busser shows strong awareness of his positioning and understands his angles well. He also makes himself really big when closing down 1v1s, and his strong body control allows him to make saves with his legs as well.

His handling and Aerial skills are a bit more of a mixed bag. With his strength and size there is clear upside in this area but his decision making can be lacking. This inconsistency is outlined in the clips above.

When he goes for contested catches he generally wins them but too often he backs out and decides to punch. This leads to a lack of conviction and poor punches which gives the opponent chances to score.

If he can gain more confidence to use his physicality and claim the ball more often, this will improve his game considerably. Goalkeepers have a different ageing curve to the rest of football which leaves ample time for him to develop.

His distribution is also a bit inconsistent and much more one footed than Polster. Firstly, De Busser is really good when playing the ball on the ground and so his play out from the back is solid. He can play through pressure and is happy to take the ball in dangerous positions.

His long passing is slack however. Too often his passes sail way over the intended target. He does clear the ball with intention to find teammates though. In a team like Rangers who want to be direct, he may improve this skill.

Conclusion

There isn’t a lot that separates the two keepers. Polster is three years younger but the age difference isn’t as much of a factor at this position and they both make up for their deficiencies in different ways.

If we were going for system fit then I would say Polster is the better option. His skills with direct passing would benefit Danny Röhl’s style of play. His aerial ability is also a bonus in a physical league.

However, the goalkeeper is the position which I would assign the least value for system fit. Even in the modern game, the first job of a goalkeeper is to stop goals. Prioritising the player with the higher floor seems best to me here.

This is why I would choose Jari De Busser as Rangers number 1 goalie next season.

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In the top six, only Falkirk (12) have lost more games than Celtic (8).

In fact, after Dundee United beat Celtic twice in a row at Tannadice for the first time since 1991, Celtic have now suffered the most league defeats since the 1999/00 season under John Barnes (9 defeats).

If Celtic go on to win the title now with at least eight defeats, it will be the most defeats by a champion in a ≤ 38 match season since Celtic in 1978/79 (9 losses).

By contrast, despite having their worst start to a league campaign since 1978, Rangers have lost the fewest matches of all teams in UK league football (two defeats, both to Hearts). It’s Hearts that still lead the way, though - as they have done for six months.

EUROPEAN ENTRY POINTS

As in previous seasons, I will frequently track and update on how the current league table translates to European qualification spots at the end of this season. I’ll also include “example opponents” - this is who each team would face in qualifiers, based on current coefficient rankings and current league tables around Europe.

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THIS SEASON

As will be discussed in the “next season” section - this season’s European entry points are as good as it gets for Scottish football - and for quite some time. The falling coefficient means that if Hearts were to win the title in the coming years - this is the year to do it!

There are two distinct paths for our European entrants, and it depends on who wins the Scottish Cup. This is now a lot clearer after we are down to the final four; St Mirren Vs Celtic and Dunfermline Vs Falkirk.

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1.) ASSUMING CELTIC WIN THE SCOTTISH CUP

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They have done this by combining four ‘indicators’ to assign a squad management score to every club:

1. number of players used in the league over last three years

2. average stay of current players (in years)

3. average age at the time of signing (in years)

4. average remaining contract length (in years)

The theory makes sense; a club that has signed younger players, on longer contracts, is deemed to be one that is focused on the longer term - compared to a club that has signed older players on short term contracts. Similarly, if a club utilises less players, and those players stay at the club for longer, then that is also deemed to be a strong indicator of long term squad management.

Each club is then given a ‘long-term index’ score by CIES, taking into account all four indicators. For the methodology, players from the youth academy were excluded from the ‘players used’ and ‘age of signing’ metrics, and they were also excluded from ‘average stay’ if they were under 22-years old.

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THE FINDINGS

Real Madrid had a long-term index of 100, the best in the world, while Paraguayan side Club Rubio Ñu had the worst long-term index of just 8.4! Madrid used just 32 non-academy players in the league over the past three years, while Club Rubio Ñu used the most players in world football - 117! Real Madrid had the second longest average stay of current players (3.15 years), beaten only by Seattle Sounders in the MLS with 3.28 years.

Brentford were second with an index of 96.7, despite using more players (46) than anyone else in the top six. Their overall index score was improved significantly due to their average contract length (3.77 years), which was beaten only by Chelsea (4.37 years).

The ranking for the top 20 clubs is up first:

It’s worth noting that Chelsea - who are ranked 9th - were taken over by Todd Boehly’s consortium in 2022 and proceeded to spend over £1 billion on players, handing many of the new signings unusually long contracts. This was to allow them to comply with UEFA’s financial regulations, by spreading the transfer fee over 8 or 10 years rather than the standard 3-5 years. UEFA promptly closed this ‘loophole’, capping the amortisation of signings over five years. As a result, Chelsea have the highest average contract length in world football (4.37 years) which contributes to their high ranking in this study, despite using 55 players over the last three years.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

In the recent UEFA landscape report, UEFA’s data revealed that our top tier had the highest percentage of out of contract players (10%) of all the top 10 nations, and a further 21% with a contract expiring within the next 12 months.

The CIES observatory’s squad management exercise mirror UEFA’s analysis, as the findings for the Scottish top flight demonstrate that on average our clubs are ‘less focused’ on the longer-term:

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Four of the five that didn’t win the league finished in second place. Only one team finished outside the top two after making such a strong start - Aberdeen, last season. The Dons finished fifth, such was the remarkable drop off in form after their electric winning run under Jimmy Thelin.

The early charge to the top of the table this season saw Hearts pull eight points ahead, giving them a sizeable buffer in case they hit a drop in form. Having lost their last three away games, that buffer has been reduced - they are now just two points ahead of Celtic.

With eight matches left to go, just three points separate the top three - the first time this has been the case since 1998. It was the same three teams battling for the title back then, except Celtic were the team at the top back then. The Celts would go on to win the league ahead of Rangers, to claim their first title in ten years.

As it is the Jambos that occupy top spot this time around, Hearts fans and many neutrals alike are hoping to see the team at the top hold on to win the league again this time! With the ‘maximum points achievable’ for each side dropping on a weekly basis, it’s likely going to require one of the lowest points totals this century to take the trophy.

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REMAINING FIXTURES

This next graphic shows the remaining fixtures for each team using my predicted post-split fixtures from last month, and an example of what the running order might look like:

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This article was written for Scottishfootball.info by Data Bhoys, a Celtic fan with a keen interest in data analysis. They have started their own Substack account you can follow, as well as the Data Bhoys account on X.com.

This article is a breakdown of the ‘expected points’ so far this season and ‘projected points’ for how the final table might look.

By now, I think most people are familiar with Expected Goals, or xG. Some people love it, some people hate it. The discourse around whether it is a useful metric or whether it’s a pile of pish usually stems from a misunderstanding of what it is actually trying to measure.

If a team has an xG of 2 in a particular match, that doesn’t necessarily mean they “should” have scored two goals. It means that the shots they took in that particular match had a high probability of yielding at least two goals. It is essentially a measure on chance quality. But understanding the context behind this is crucial.

I’ll use some shots from the recent league derby at Ibrox to try and illustrate this. In the 55^th minute, Reo Hatate had a shot from close to thirty yards out that was saved by Jack Butland. The xG on this shot was 0.04, so in other terms the average footballer would have a 4% chance of scoring by shooting from this location.

If a team took thirty shots from this location in a match, the total xG would be 1.2. But that doesn’t change the fact that each of these shots only had a 4% chance of scoring. Looking purely at the xG, it could be assumed that this team created enough chances to merit scoring at least one goal – but with the context provided, it tells you that the chance creation was actually very poor.

High xG numbers can also be a red herring for a different reason. Reo Hatate’s penalty in the 91^st minute had an xG of 0.79 (standard for penalties), this was saved and he had another shot with an xG value of 0.65, then this was saved and he had another shot right on the line with an xG value of 0.99. In total, these three shots generated 2.35 xG in the space of a few seconds despite the fact it would be physically impossible to score two goals from this situation.

Some xG models adjust so that only one shot in an attacking phase contributes to the total xG value, but some don’t. Wyscout for example has the xG for that game as 4.26 (Celtic) to 1.68 (Rangers). Without the context of how and why that was generated, it could lead you to believe that Celtic absolutely battered Rangers and that it should have been a hammering. Those of us who watched that game understand that is not what happened.

It is not perfect. But on balance, it is a better proxy for chance creation than simply shots taken or shots on target, because taking a lot of shots from thirty-five yards out does not mean you have created a lot of chances.

Why am I going on about this? Well, it is important to understand exactly what xG is because it is highly relevant when we are talking about Expected Points.

Expected Points is what we can calculate based on probabilities determined by xG for and xG against.

In as simple terms as I can, the hypothesis is “based on the quality of chances created by each team, what is the probability of a win, loss, or draw?”.

In Scottish Football, some may be familiar with this concept from the Twitter/X account TheGersReport who has published Projected Points tables for the past few seasons.

I personally remember it during the 2021/22 season, where their model predicted Celtic to win the title at a stage where Rangers were six points clear.

It has been sorely missed during this turbulent season, and many have turned to resources like the xG table on Fotmob for insights like this.

Here’s the thing.

I’m unfamiliar with how TheGersReport model worked, but it is my understanding that Fotmob’s table incorporates all xG in the mix - penalties is what I’m talking about here.

Whenever I am doing player profiles, especially for strikers, I do not include goals or xG from penalties because it doesn’t have much bearing on overall performance. Penalties are random, noisy events that skew data. It isn’t really reflective of how a team has played in terms of chance creation.

By that principle, my theory was that while including penalty xG may be accurate in determining where the points should have gone in a particular game, non-penalty xG is a better reflection of general performance - and if we want to make a projection going forth as to where teams may finish, it would be misleading to include penalty xG because this is an uncontrollable variable.

So here is what I’ve done.

I have designed a framework for Expected Points, using statistical principles of probability based on non-penalty xG to try and estimate:

A) What the league table should look like based on chance creation for and against

B) What the league table may look like after 38 games taking into account points that have already been won

I won’t profess to fully understand the mathematical principles, after all I am not a professional statistician or analyst (I am just incredibly specky and incredibly determined) – but I do believe this has some value, it correlates to what my expectations were and matches up well to similar exercises.

So, after 30 league games, here is what this model thinks the league table “should” look like.

And for clarity, the over/underperformance of each team’s actual points to their expected points.

I feel this only furthers the narrative that this has been quite a mad season in Scottish football. Celtic have managed to balance out to just as many points as the model expects them to have, but a massive overperformance from Hearts sees the Jambos sitting top.

Credit must be given to Danny Rohl as I doubt this model would have predicted Rangers to be 2^nd before his arrival, but they have benefited from a bit of positive variance on the whole.

There is perhaps a bit of hope for Hibs fans, it feels like a bit of an underwhelming season for them but they can count themselves a little unlucky as their league performances merit 3^rd place according to this model.

Motherwell have done fantastically and are a joy to watch, but from this model I would conclude that they have benefited from some variance that sees them with around seven more points than expected.

Falkirk are the only top six side whose actual position reflects their expected position.

Looking at the bottom six, the biggest losers are undoubtedly St. Mirren. Around twelve points less than expected sees them in danger of being dragged into a relegation dogfight.

Livingston are bottom of both the actual and expected tables, but can count themselves a little unlucky as the model has only a four-point gap between them and the side in 11^th.

Steven Pressley’s Dundee are the side benefiting most from the underperformance of St.Mirren and Aberdeen, and Dundee United are – well, they are Dundee United I suppose.

With all this, we can now make a projection for how many points each team might finish on, incorporating the findings of this model with the points already on the board.

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This weekend was a big swing. When I originally calculated these numbers, it was after matchday 29 and Hearts were projected to finish on top – the weekends action now means that Celtic are projected to win the league on around 77 points. This would be the lowest ever points tally for a champion in the modern era.

It’s not quite as simple as that though. Hearts are projected to be on around 75 points, and Rangers around 74 points. That is less than a three-point gap between the top three sides, meaning this title race would be decided on the last game of the season.

The projection for the rest of the league is to stay as it is now – but I think that battle to avoid the relegation playoff place will be very interesting. The model projects only a one-point gap between St.Mirren and Kilmarnock, and this could swing either way.

Now a reminder that this isn’t a prediction or a guess, it is a statistical projection based on underlying performance data. Things can affect games massively that this model cannot account for: penalties, red cards, keepers passing the ball directly into the path of a striker. I have checked this model against both Opta’s and Wyscout’s Expected Points tables, and it is congruent with both - with slight differences due to the inclusion of penalty xG. I am just trying to be a little different here, experimenting, and we will see how this ages very soon!

One thing that I am currently looking into is the possibility of re-jigging this model once we get into the split. For example, if we are trying to project how many points each side in the top six may end up with, might it be sounder basing this projection only on underlying performance vs other top six sides? And vice versa for the bottom six.

It is something I will look into, but until then we still have three massive matchdays to go in this weird and wonderful season of Scottish football. I will try to keep this table updated after every weekend, so if you are interested in seeing how this progresses please feel free to follow me on twitter/X on databhoys.

Thank you for reading and I hope you enjoyed!

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Hearts lost at Rugby Park on Saturday evening, in what was their third consecutive away loss (Kilmarnock 1-0, Rangers 4-2, St. Mirren 1-0). To put that in perspective, the Jambos have only lost 2 of the other 27 league matches this season! Losing three in a row away from home at such a crucial time has severely dented their title hopes.

But they’re still top. And the title is still in their own hands.

In fact, after Celtic came from behind to beat Motherwell, and Rangers struggled past St. Mirren in Paisley - for the first time in several months, each of the top three can say that the title is mathematically ‘in their own hands’.

If any of the top three sides win their remaining eight matches then they will be crowned Scottish Premiership Champions*, in what is officially the closest three horse title race for nearly 30 years. (*technically Rangers could still lose the title on goal difference with 8/8 wins, if Hearts won 7/8 with a better GD).

Three points separate the top three teams after 30 matches for the first time since 1998.

In season 1997/98, Rangers were aiming to make it ten-in-a-row, but after 30 matches found themselves trailing a resurgent Celtic under Wim Jansen AND Jim Jeffries’ Hearts - who themselves lead the way for much of the season.

With six matches left in what was a 36 match 10-team league format, leaders Celtic dropped points at Ibrox (lost 2-0), East End Park (drew 1-1) and Celtic Park (drew 0-0 with Hibs). However, the Hoops’ form was still enough to take the title, ultimately finishing two points ahead of Rangers and seven clear of a Hearts side that only won 1 of the last six matches.

Rangers won more of the remaining games than both Celtic and Hearts (won 4/6), but saw damaging defeats at Pittodrie and Rugby Park cost Walter Smith the title in the final season of his first spell. Incredibly, Celtic only won four of their last nine matches that season yet still took the title on the final day of the season, beating St. Johnstone 2-0 at Celtic Park.

Back to the present day, and although there will likely still be many twists and turns this season, you would suspect whoever wins the league won’t get away with winning only four of the last nine matches this time.

Whatever happens, it looks like being an unmissable end to the season. Celtic are probably favourites now, grinding out results while Hearts continue to slip up. Despite many Rangers fans ruling themselves out after failing to beat Celtic, the Gers are now unbeaten in 13 league games, their longest unbeaten league run for three years.

Unfortunately it looks like it won’t be Motherwell, after they lost 3-1 at Celtic on Saturday despite taking the lead through the brilliant Elijah Just. Celtic have lost only 1 of 32 home matches against Motherwell (last was December 2015), and so this was thee season for Motherwell to end that run. Despite playing well in both matches at Parkhead, the Well suffered two defeats and conceded six goals. It’s matches like this - against fellow top six sides - that will cost Motherwell a chance at achieving the unthinkable. They’ve only won two of 12 matches against top six sides, taking 18 fewer points than Hearts have in such matches.

Of course, the Steelmen have played the least number of matches against top six teams, and so all of their remaining fixtures will be against fellow top six sides. But even if they beat Hibs, Falkirk and Hearts before the split, they’ll still have taken nine points less than Hearts have against top six sides. A lot of these matches have been decided by fine margins, but in a low scoring sport like football, the fine margins need to go your way to keep you in a title race over 38 matches. Especially when the league table is at it’s tightest since 1998!

If you missed it last month, you can read about the expected post-split fixtures for all twelve Premiership clubs:

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In my analysis of Hibs’ annual report this time last year, which covered the previous season in which they finished 8th, I described a club with their highest ever revenue (£15.87m) but also their highest ever wagebill (£12.7m) and highest ever operating loss (£9.2m). Then Chief Executive Ben Kensell had previously predicted that those results would be “healthy”. He left the club three weeks before they were released.

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In last year’s analysis I anticipated that the next set of Hibs accounts for season 2024/25 (released on Tuesday this week) would also be a season in which financial losses were endured. The wage bill last season was too high relative to the revenue - and Hibs had not qualified for any European football. Even playing in two or three qualifying rounds before elimination adds another £1m to the revenue column, such is the size of the UEFA money pot.

This year, the prediction has borne true, with Hibs again making a heavy loss - although this has reduced from the previous year. Despite the losses, there are still many positives for Hibs fans to take and this analysis will now examine the accounts in detail, covering the good and the bad, including:

• Revenue: SPFL, cups, UEFA & the fans

• Expenses: consistently rising, but wages curbed

• Player Trading: Sales were declining - up until January 2026!

• Losses: heavy but reducing; and covered by the Gordons

• Future Outlook: Bowie sale, hunt for Europe, stadium investment

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REVENUE

Hibs have posted record revenues for the fourth straight year now - a welcome trend in Scottish football that several clubs are achieving. The turnover of £16.8m was a 6% increase from the £15.9m recorded the year before.

While Hibs have consistently grown their revenue since the covid-19 pandemic, they are yet to break through the £20m barrier - something which both Hearts and Aberdeen have done in recent seasons. Hibs will rightly point out that those two clubs have shared the guaranteed European group stage football prize over the past four years, which massively grows turnover.

However Aberdeen still reached £21.7m in turnover last year - even without any European football. It’s worth pointing out too that Hibs have only now recorded turnover of £15m+ within the last two seasons, something Aberdeen achieved over 10 years ago in 2015, and so the Hibees have been playing catch up for several years, partly due to the years spent in the Championship. Still, a turnover of £20m should be an achievable target for Hibs in the next 3-5 years; with the SPFL’s renegotiation of the TV deal in 2029 likely to be key.

SPFL prize money increases by league position and so Hibs’ revenue growth was boosted by a third place finish, a massive improvement on the previous season’s eighth place. The SPFL have continued to grow the overall pot year-on-year and so Hibs’ 3rd place finish was worth £2.89m - a full £1m more than the £1.85m they received for finishing 8th in 2023/24

Similarly, Hibs were drawn to face Celtic at Parkhead in both cups. Such a draw is a double edged sword as it provides a significant financial boost, but an obvious sporting disadvantage - Hibs lost both games by 2 goals. However due to the revenue sharing agreements for cup matches, these two ties will have increased Hibs’ revenue by over £500,000 - double the combined prizemoney Hibs received from both cups! Including fees for having their matches televised, Hibs earned £108,000 for elimination in the last 16 of the Scottish League Cup and £158,000 for losing in the Quarters of the Scottish Cup.

Last year I told of record solidarity payments to be paid to Scottish clubs by UEFA as part of their reformatting of European competition. This will have boosted Hibs’ revenue significantly in the absence of European football, however that ~£1m solidarity figure will be reduced in Hibs’ next set of accounts in a years time. Solidarity payments rise with a nation’s coefficient ranking and increase further if one of its clubs reaches the Champions League phase. Unfortunately though, Scotland’s coefficient has fallen and both Rangers and Celtic were eliminated in Champions league qualifiers this season, meaning payments will be reduced this season by around a third.

Around £5m of Hibernian’s income can therefore be traced to Hibs’ performance on the field and the prizemoney described above. However with total income of more than treble that figure at nearly £17m, the importance of the loyal fans cannot be understated as the single most important revenue stream to the club; regardless of on field performance.

THE FANS

More than a third of Hibs’ revenue will come directly from their fans, through tickets, hospitality and shirt sales. The recent UEFA landscape report showed that the Scottish Premiership’s percentage of income that comes from ticket money (36%) is by far the highest in Europe, considerably more than the likes of England (14%), Germany (14%), Portugal (13%) and Denmark (11%).

Such was the feel-good factor around Easter Road in the current season - in what is their 150th anniversary - Hibs were able to sell a record number of season tickets (over 13,500); as they set a modern-day record home attendance in August 2025. “The season ticket league table” has Hibs in fourth place:

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UEFA’s European Club Finance and Investment Landscape report is published annually, with a detailed analysis of the money involved in European football, covering 700+ clubs. The main takeaway from this year’s 112 page report will be of no surprise; revenues are at record levels - but so are costs.

Even though the clubs are generating more money than ever before, nearly half are unprofitable. A point underscored by the fact that Celtic are once again one of the most profitable clubs in Europe, despite playing in one of the smaller European leagues.

Andrea Traverso, UEFA Director Financial Sustainability & Research:
“Improvements in wage control and record transfer profits mean that more than half of Europe’s top-division clubs reported a profit before tax in 2024, the first time since before the pandemic. The combined top-division losses before tax decreased to €1.1bn in 2024, with a similar level projected in 2025.
Regrettably, the lack of consistent domestic-level financial regulations will likely prevent European football reaching pre-pandemic levels of profitability”

This analysis will review the report in detail from a Scottish point of view, similar to my review last year, while also comparing the figures to the top 20 leagues across Europe. You can also find an in depth look at several Scottish clubs in the financial reports section, with more to be added in the coming weeks.

In UEFA’s report, there may be some accounting period and currency discrepancies, as all of UEFA’s figures are presented in Euros whereas our clubs obviously all report in GBP. As with most financial analysis, the figures are largely already out of date (2023/24), however 144 clubs in 37 countries clubs do provide UEFA with “early 2025 financial data” used by UEFA in formulating this report. Some of the figures are therefore from 2024, while other figures will come from 2025, for the early reporting clubs. It’s also worth remembering that for the Scottish aggregate figure in each category, a large chunk will always be generated by Rangers and Celtic.

In Scotland, five clubs provided early data to UEFA in preparation of this report; Aberdeen, Celtic, Dundee United, Hibernian and Rangers. There were nine English clubs which did so, and it was reported last week that some were unhappy that their ‘early data’ provided to UEFA was released to the public without warning. For example, Chelsea’s record loss of £355m had not yet been released by the club themselves as they hadn’t yet published their 2024/25 annual report!

This article is very detailed, probably best read over a number of visits. It’s broken down into five main areas:

• REVENUE

  • Ticket money

  • UEFA prize money

  • TV deal & Scotland’s imbalanced distribution model

  • Commercial income including shirt sponsors

• EXPENSES

  • Wages & Operating Expenses

• PLAYER TRADING

• PROFIT

• INVESTMENT

  • Multi club investment and American ownership

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REVENUE

UEFA breaks down the revenue for each country into gate receipts (matchday tickets and hospitality), domestic TV revenue, UEFA prize money and commercial revenue (sponsorship, merchandising and other commercial activities). At an aggregate league level, Scotland’s Premiership clubs generated €378m total revenue in 2024, an increase of 6%, which ranked 11th out of 55 UEFA member associations for total revenue.

What sets Scotland apart from most other leagues is where that money comes from. As a league we are very much ‘attendance-dependent’ with any major total growth normally attributed to an increase in UEFA prizemoney. Whereas the English Premier League for example would be much more ‘TV dependent’; a drop in attendances or UEFA prize money wouldn’t be felt at the aggregate level as much as it would in Scotland.

GATE RECEIPTS

Across Europe, total gate receipts reached a record €4.4bn, a 16% rise from last year - thanks in part to a 22% growth in hospitality sales. Ticket sales is Scotland’s most impressive metric, where we are ranked 8th in Europe. The Scottish Premiership brought in a total of €137m through ticket sales, which is 36% of our total revenue figure of €378m.

This once again demonstrates how dependent our clubs are on the match-going fans. Scotland’s percentage of income that comes from ticket money (36%) is by far the highest in Europe, considerably more than England (14%), Germany (14%), Portugal (13%) and Denmark (11%). In fact no other nation is above 30%, and only seven are over 20%. The combined €137m our clubs earned from ticket sales dwarves the likes of Norway (€24m), Denmark (€25m), Poland (€39m), Austria (€66m) and even Portugal (€78m) and Belgium (€107m).

With this in mind, while most supporters likely back the idea and the theory behind a price cap on tickets - this is much harder to implement in a league that is so dependent on ticket money. The German Bundesliga is always regarded as the gold standard for ticket pricing with clubs financially looking after their fans. But when only 14% of your revenue comes from ticket sales, and 29% comes from the TV deal - as it does in Germany, this is much easier to achieve. A price cap in Scotland would not dramatically increase attendances - we are the best supported league in Europe per capita, but it would decrease the clubs revenue.

CELTIC AND RANGERS - GATE REVENUE

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For Rangers, they’ve now lost four of their past five penalty shootouts (Celtic, Celtic, Eintracht Frankfurt & St. Johnstone) without saving a single penalty in any of the losing shootouts. As a result, Jack Butland is now 0/9 in penalty shootouts against Celtic - although he’s saved from Reo Hatate and Matt O’Riley in his run of saving 8 from 9 excluding shootouts. Rangers’ sole victory in their last five penalty shootouts came in last season’s Europa League last 16 match at Ibrox, where Butland saved two of four kicks, with a third Fenerbahçe kick sailing over the bar.

Celtic’s full shootout record complete with some related stats and trivia now follow. If you are not yet a member please consider taking out a 7-day free trial to read on, before deciding if you think the annual subscription is fair value.

Penalty shootouts were formally introduced at IFAB's annual general meeting on 27th June 1970, as it was agreed that the drawing of lots or coin tosses were not a fair way to decide who should progress in the event of a tie. Celtic were one of the last beneficiaries of this coin toss method; progressing against Benfica in the second round of the 1969/70 European Cup, after the tie ended 3-3.

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Celtic have been champions in 13 of the past 14 seasons, yet currently sit in second place - five points behind Hearts. Rangers are in third, one point behind Celtic and so there are only six points separating the top three. Motherwell are now ten points off top spot after losing 2-1 away to Dundee and so their already slender odds have lengthened again.

It’s arguably the ‘best’ title race since 1998, when there was just five points between the top three after 29 matches played. Celtic ultimately prevailed that season, beating St. Johnstone at Celtic Park on the final day of the season to finish two points ahead of Rangers; ending the Gers’ bid for ten-in-a-row.

As in previous seasons, I’ll be tracking how the current league table translates to European qualification spots at the end of this season. I’ll also include “example opponents” - this is who each team would face in qualifiers, based on current coefficient rankings and current league tables around Europe.

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THIS SEASON

As will be discussed in the “next season” section - this season’s European entry points are as good as it gets for Scottish football - and for quite some time. The falling coefficient means that if Hearts were to win the title in the coming years - this is the year to do it!

There are two distinct paths for our European entrants, and it depends on who wins the Scottish Cup. This is now a lot clearer after the weekend’s matches narrowed the tournament down to a final four (St Mirren Vs Celtic and Dunfermline Vs Falkirk). From this I’ll be able to show why it may be better for Rangers if Celtic win the Scottish Cup and how it will definitely be better for Hibs!

1.) ASSUMING CELTIC WIN THE SCOTTISH CUP & FINISH IN THE TOP TWO

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This season, Rangers have a GD of +26 after 29 matches, four better than Celtic but still seven down on their own total at this stage last year - in what was an awful season where Philippe Clement was sacked.

These are both historical low goal difference tallies for the big two at this stage, which will be demonstrated next. However, what’s most remarkable this season is that not just one, but TWO sides currently have a better goal difference than both Old Firm sides! (Hearts +28 & Motherwell +29; Motherwell only played 28 matches). This is very rare indeed, as I’ll now show.

Take out a 7-day free trial to read on to see when this last happened, as well as the goal difference of both Rangers and Celtic at this stage over the past 40 years! You can view any of the existing 300+ articles and videos before deciding if it’s worth an annual subscription - which works out at 50p per week.

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HEARTS GO EIGHT POINTS AHEAD OF THE REIGNING CHAMPIONS!

When Hearts beat Celtic 3-1 at Tynecastle earlier in the season, the then Celtic manager Brendan Rodgers was keen to point out after the game that there were still 29 matches left. Fast forward nearly six months and Hearts have pulled eight points ahead of Celtic again, albeit the Hoops still have a game in hand. Hearts points tally of 63 points after 29 matches is the biggest total ever recorded by a non-Old Firm side. Rangers are now six points behind Hearts, and Motherwell are two points behind Celtic. Game on.

Hearts did have 53 points after 29 games in 1958, which is 78 pts if converted to 3 pts for a win. That campaign was one of their 4 titles (1895, 1897, 1958, 1960). Ominously though, none of the other four sides in the above table went on to win the league - Derek McIness will be hoping to change that this season, especially given he was the manager of Aberdeen in both of the two previous seasons listed!

DUNDEE 3-3 HIBERNIAN - Sat 3pm: Dens Park

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