Towards the end of last season, Hearts and Celtic were building towards one of the most exciting conclusions the league had ever seen. At the same time, those of us who support Rangers were wondering if Danny Rohl would survive the season.

Under the belief that Rohl wouldn’t last much longer, I began preparing a shortlist article, to discuss who could take his place. I watched a lot of teams in a lot of different countries and one of the coaches that my search led me to, was Wouter Vrancken.

The 47 year old Belgian coach led his Sint-Truidense side to third place in the Belgian Pro League last season. This was another moment in a managerial career filled with overachievement. Vrancken being just the second manager to win the Belgian cup with a side outside the top division, with KV Mechelen in 18/19.

The main thing that caught my eye when watching his Sint-Truidense side was their marrying of both positional and relational ideas in their play. The fluidity and rotations that the attacked with and their positioning in the build up had me intrigued.

While my overall list became redundant even with Danny Rohl leaving his post as Rangers manager, at least this research ended up being useful. Wouter Vrancken has joined Hearts after Derek McInnes left for Rangers.

In this piece, I hope to give some insight into Vrancken and how his coaching and ideas will translate to Hearts.

Out of Possession

Despite lining up in a 4-2-3-1 on paper, STVV defend and press out of a few different 4-4-2/4-2-4 orientations. They alter the specifics depending on the opposition formation but what remains throughout is their intensity.

The goal is to force opponents away from the middle of the pitch and squeeze their play. Vrancken wants to protect against teams playing through and force them around the block.

Sint-Truidense worked extremely hard to prevent opposing midfielders from getting involved in the build up. The STVV midfield was tasked with intensely following their opponent all across the pitch, even if that meant ending up in the opposition box.

This intense level of pressing forces perfection from the opponent if they want to play out from the back. Most teams decide to be more direct to bypass the press instead.

Vrancken wants his team pressing all the way to the goalkeeper and they do this in a full man to man press. This means leaving the centre backs 1 v 1 if the opponent is playing two strikers.

This requires very athletic players throughout the team and defenders capable of covering large spaces. Being left in isolated duels throughout the pitch means that losing one can lead to a dangerous attack very quickly.

Build Up Play

When building up, Vrancken had his Sint-Truidense team setup to be dynamic and have multiple ways of breaking opponents down. They were built to have multiple options at all times, trying to play out through the defence while also having attackers stretching the opponent.

The above clip starts with STVV’s midfield dropping to receive and attempt to play through, they are consistently on the move and trying to give the ball carrier multiple options.

The midfielder then tries to hit a potential 2v1 on the far side, with the full back and winger advancing together. They are then forced to recycle the ball after it is well defended.

Once they are back into the build up, STVV try and bait the press forward as their attacking line try to exploit the overloaded defensive line. The ball forward ends in a good chance but a poor decision from the striker stops it in its tracks.

Sint-Truidense are also comfortable building through the middle to break free of opposition presses. The way Vrancken does this requires a forward that is adept at link up play to drop in and combine with others. You can see this in the clip above.

The striker, Keisuke Goto, drops in and positions himself diagonally to receive from the ball carrier. This puts him in position to combine and then use the space created by the combination to play a pass out of the press.

The next element is using diagonals to create deception and movement. The clip above shows Goto again dropping deeper, again positioning diagonally from the receiver.

This puts him in a position that’s extremely difficult to defend and gives him multiple options. There is another player diagonally behind Goto which allows him to dummy the ball and get straight on the move, he could take a touch and turn or release the winger into space.

These diagonal angles are so difficult to account for as most defences are setup vertically and defenders trained to press at certain angles, not designed to stop diagonal play.

The end of all this is organised chaos, runs from all over flooding the box. The final product is built on proximity and connections allowing attacks to be overwhelming for opponents to deal with.

The clip above all comes from those deep combinations I mentioned earlier. Once they are out from the press, it is immediately about pressing the advantage that has just been created.

This clip shows another combination in the middle leading to space out wide. As the ball swings out to the right wing, the goal is made through those diagonal orientations and deception in their movements.

Two players positioned diagonally from the ball carrier, one fakes a movement to receive and then spins in behind. The pass then goes to the second diagonal option, who has the perfect angle to find the original run in behind.

Of course this style of play comes with some drawbacks. It takes time and patience to instil all of these tactical ideas. It also requires high risk and the quality to stop that risk from becoming collapse.

Watch in the clip below how one slightly heavy pass leads so quickly to a goal. Difficult bouncing pass from the goalkeeper leads to a poor touch and then a turnover close to goal. Defenders are going the wrong way and can’t re-organise in time to stop the chance.

Conclusion

I think Wouter Vrancken and the Jamestown way of doing things are a strong match. Malachi Fagan-Walcott and Tom Renaud already look like the type of player extremely suited to how Vrancken wants to play.

Walcott is a talented athlete who makes unorthodox runs and movements for a centre back, willing to play forward at all times. Renaud a talented midfielder who thrives in chaotic situations.

It will likely require patience from the Hearts support to make such a drastic change in style successful but this feels like a good step into making Hearts a consistent force rather than a one off challenge.

Vrancken approaches the game in an extremely progressive way and if given the right talent, he can take Hearts up a level. The dynamism of his attack once built will give Tynecastle some serious entertainment. Hopefully it can allow them to make the step into Europe as well.

There are a lot of intricacies in Vranckens setup that I didn’t go into in this article, player profiling, pressing triggers and a couple others as I didn’t want the article to become overwhelming. However I hope this has given a solid insight into what Vrancken can bring to Tynecastle in the upcoming season.

My discussion on BBC Scotland’s Reporting Scotland at 7pm tonight.

Scotland’s World Cup campaign was finally ended on the final night of the group stage, after the last unlikely set of results didn’t come in. It was death by a thousand cuts, as we went from needing any four of ten results to go our way to needing four outcomes from the last four groups to see us through to the last 32.

In the end, only one of 10 results went our way, as Spain beat Uruguay, meaning Scotland were ranked 11th of the 12 third-placed teams. Incidentally, both Scotland’s and Uruguay’s managers left their posts after their group-stage eliminations.

The reality is that Scotland were already out long before the final night, with the pendulum swinging dramatically from “should go through” to “probably out” after Scotland lost to Brazil and South Africa beat South Korea within a few hours of each other.

The threshold to be in the top eight rose on a daily basis, and in the end, for Scotland to go through with three points, they would have required a 5-0 victory against Haiti and two 1-0 losses against the top two seeds..

That is a better goal difference than the pre-tournament simulation models predicted, with most, including Opta Stats, expecting that three goals and even a slender negative goal difference would likely be good enough to progress in most scenarios.

New Format Issues

Part of the problem with the pre-tournament simulations was the change in format for this World Cup. The two main issues were firstly FIFA’s decision to tie-break the groups on head-to-head rather than goal difference for the first time, resulting in several final games where teams had nothing to play for.

For example, one of the results Scotland needed was Germany avoiding defeat to Ecuador, which would have resulted in one more team finishing below us in the third-placed rankings. However, the Germans were already assured of top spot with nothing to play for, courtesy of their head-to-head record against Ivory Coast. Ecuador, on the other hand, needed a victory or they’d face elimination, and so played like a team with everything to play for.

If we are honest, Scotland progressing at the expense of someone like Ecuador would have been a crime against football. The South Americans played like a team that needed a result against one of the top teams in the world, and truly believed they could get it. As a result, it is Ecuador, the team that lost the fewest World Cup qualifying matches in South America (2), that will have their last-32 showdown with hosts Mexico in Mexico City, while Scotland watch on from home, as usual.

The second issue with the new format was the timing of the last matches. FIFA have regularly scheduled the final match within each group to kick off at the exact same time, to reduce the chance of collusion within the group where two teams could play out a required result at the expense of another team in the group.

They continued with that this time, but importantly, all the groups still kicked off at different times and on different days. The outcome in many groups was already decided before the final game, and it was the ranking of third-placed teams that became more important, with the later groups knowing exactly what result was required to reach the last 32. This was a big disadvantage to Scotland, as we were the second group to finish and had no idea what the threshold was to progress. For this to be truly fair for all teams, all 24 final group-stage matches would have to kick off at the same time and on the same day, as happens in UEFA club competition.

The Group Was Difficult

Those defending Scotland’s tournament will ask: “What did you expect the team to do?” Many will state that beating the Pot 4 team before losing to Morocco and Brazil is probably about par for a country like Scotland. Furthermore, of all 12 groups, Group C was a very difficult group to progress from, as it was the only one to contain two teams within the top 10 of the FIFA rankings at the start of the tournament.

While that may be true, Scotland categorically did not have the “hardest” set of opponents. In fact, 23 teams had fixtures with a higher average FIFA ranking than Scotland’s.

Those of us who think the fixtures were tougher than average would point to the fact the above “hardest fixtures” graphic is skewed by the average of our opponents being dragged down by Haiti, the second-lowest-ranked team in the tournament (83), behind only New Zealand (85).

Incidentally, both Haiti (2) and New Zealand (3) scored more goals than Scotland, with Panama (0) the only team in the tournament to score less than us. Elijah Just scored all three goals for New Zealand, making him one of the joint-top World Cup scorers among players based at Scottish clubs.

The average ranking of the three opponents doesn’t accurately reflect the fact that, in the end, only one third-placed team progressed with three points. Therefore, beating the Pot 4 team was not going to be enough for most sides. A further point was needed against one of the top two sides in the group.

This is where the difficulty of Scotland’s group is laid bare. When we remove the weakest opponent from each group, and look only at the top 2 sides faced, Scotland had the highest ranking average of top two opponents of any side in the tournament. Had Scotland’s top two sides been Belgium and Iran instead of Brazil and Morocco, then we might have stood more of a chance.

The Hosts Were In Pot 1

The last bowl of sour grapes I will serve you before moving on to Steve Clarke is the draw itself back in December. It is understandable that FIFA want the hosts to stay in the tournament as long as possible, and so putting them in Pot 1 probably makes sense.

However, the fact there were three hosts meant that placing them all in Pot 1 led to a great imbalance in some groups. There were 12 teams per pot and all three of the USA, Canada and Mexico were placed in Pot 1, despite none of them being an actual Pot 1 team based on FIFA ranking.

What this meant is that three teams that “should” have been Pot 1 (Croatia, Morocco and Colombia) were pushed into Pot 2. Any team in Pot 3 could then get fortunate and draw one of the hosts as their Pot 1 team, such as Canada, or get really unlucky and draw one of these “true” Pot 1 teams as their Pot 2 team, such as Morocco.

For instance, Switzerland topped a group including Canada, Bosnia & Herzegovina and Qatar. By contrast, Scotland were eliminated at the hands of Brazil and Morocco, when based on FIFA rankings we should only have faced one of these sides.

As an aside, UEFA doesn’t automatically assign the hosts to Pot 1, and so although Scotland’s 2028 matches will be at Hampden Park, we won’t automatically be a Pot 1 side. If FIFA did this too, and all teams were placed based on FIFA World Ranking, then the pots would look like this instead:

Scotland drew the 8th side in Pot 1, which was Brazil. If the hosts had entered Pot 2, as per their FIFA ranking at the time of the draw, the 8th Pot 1 side would have been Belgium. Similarly, Scotland drew the 2nd side in Pot 2, which was unlucky in itself, but this was Morocco, truly a Pot 1 team. Based on FIFA ranking, this would have instead been Mexico.

Of course, having the hosts in Pot 2 would not have guaranteed Scotland a draw against Belgium and Mexico, as there were many specific restrictions on which teams from which confederation could go in which groups. Scotland may have lost both of these games too, but the exercise shows that Scotland were disadvantaged by FIFA’s decision to push Morocco into Pot 2 to ensure the hosts were in Pot 1.

Was it an Under Performance?

In isolation, beating Haiti, losing to Morocco and Brazil, and missing out on goal difference feels about par.

The difficulty comes when viewed with the context that this is the third consecutive tournament where Scotland players have scored only one goal. At Euro 2024, Scotland scored twice, but one of those was an own goal, and in three of our last six tournament matches we had zero shots on target.

Cape Verde, with a population smaller than Glasgow’s, have progressed after going undefeated through a group that included both Spain and Uruguay. They scored more goals than Scotland and were more deserving of a place in the knockout rounds.

All nations in the top 10 of the FIFA rankings progressed, so we will look at the teams from 11th down, as that’s who we really want to measure ourselves against. This graphic shows the FIFA world ranking, progression status, goals scored and average opponent FIFA ranking.

The likes of DR Congo, South Africa, Bosnia, Cape Verde and Ghana all showed that a team’s FIFA ranking didn’t have to determine its showing, as they all progressed to the next round and all scored at least one more goal than Scotland.

Steve Clarke

Now a look at Steve Clarke’s tenure, covering the records he’s broken, the players he’s used and the guys that have scored for him. You can read more about previous Scotland managers in an article on Clarke from last year.

Record Holder

Steve Clarke is Scotland’s most successful manager ever. Regardless of your opinions on the man, the manager, or our performances at the major tournaments, the man is a record holder.

He’s managed his country for more games than anyone in history, recorded more wins than anyone in history and led the men’s team to more tournaments than any manager in history. I suspect history will be kinder on Steve Clarke than perhaps the emotional rawness of another failed campaign is right now, but what’s for sure is he has raised the bar for the next man coming in.

In 2018, Scotland had four games at Hampden in the autumn where attendances ranged between 17,000 and 21,000. When Clarke joined in 2019, expectations were low, given our major tournament drought. Apathy had set in amongst the Scotland support. The SFA have openly admitted the remit for Clarke was simply to qualify for a major tournament, by whichever means necessary.

He did that at the first attempt, reaching the delayed Euro 2020 through the “back-door” play-off earned by previous manager Alex McLeish in the Nations League. He then qualified in style for Euro 2024 by winning the opening five matches of that campaign. Clarke then did the truly unexpected by returning us to the World Cup after a long 28-year absence, while giving us probably the most memorable night in the history of Hampden Park with the last-gasp 4-2 win over the Danes.

The remit for the next manager will be to reach these tournaments regularly, then go one step further and progress beyond the group stages. Be it Postecoglou, Moyes, Hjulmand, McCann, Naismith, Fletcher or A.N. Other, Clarke has left big shoes to fill.

Loyalty

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This article will be updated daily until Scotland are eliminated from the 2026 World Cup.

As if Scotland’s performance was not hard enough to take, the results since then have all but eliminated us. According to simulation models such as Opta’s, in less than 48 hours Scotland have fallen from an 85% chance of progression to 40%, then 25%, then 14%, and now to around just 7%.

The three-goal defeat to Brazil started the drop. Since then, South Africa have beaten Korea Republic, Ecuador have beaten Germany, and Australia and Paraguay played out a predictable 0-0 draw that sent both teams through.

Scotland’s Tournament History

Scotland ended the group stage, and now almost certainly their World Cup, with only one goal scored. That is their second-lowest goal tally at a World Cup, level with 1986 and ahead only of 1954, when they failed to score in either match.

When our four European Championships are included, Scotland have won only seven major tournament matches in 38 games. We have also never won more than once at a single tournament.

The last time Scotland scored more than once in a major tournament match was in 1992, against the Commonwealth of Independent States. The CIS team was created after the Soviet Union had qualified for Euro 1992, allowing a combined post-Soviet side to take up the place already earned in qualifying.

The Current Third-Place Rankings

Scotland now sit 8th in the third-place rankings, but could still finish as high as 6th if results go our way. That is, of course, very unlikely given the results still required.

What Do Scotland Need To Progress?

If third-placed teams in nine or more groups finish on three points or more, the eight best sides will be ranked by points, goal difference, goals scored, team conduct and then FIFA ranking.

Scotland need four other third-placed teams to finish below them, either on points or on goal difference. The graphic below shows the specific results now required in the remaining groups - we need any combination of four groups to go our way. Unfortunately, we’ve gone from needing four from ten, to four of six.

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This article will be updated daily until Scotland are eliminated from the 2026 World Cup.

A 3-0 defeat to Brazil, the most successful nation in World Cup history, has left Scotland’s chances of progression hanging by a thread. Results later in the night were equally damaging, if not more so.

If Scotland are eliminated, it would likely be on goal difference, or even goals scored. That would be the fourth time in nine World Cup appearances that Scotland have been eliminated on a tiebreaker - more than any other country in history.

Scotland’s Tournament History

Scotland ended the group stage, and potentially their World Cup, with only one goal scored. That is their second-lowest goal tally at a World Cup, level with 1986 and ahead only of 1954, when they failed to score in either match.

When our four European Championships are included, Scotland have won only seven major tournament matches in 38 games. We have also never won more than once at a single tournament.

The last time Scotland scored more than once in a major tournament match was in 1992, against the Commonwealth of Independent States. The CIS team was created after the Soviet Union had qualified for Euro 1992, allowing a combined post-Soviet side to take up the place already earned in qualifying.

The Current Third-Place Rankings

Scotland’s defeat dropped them from second to seventh in the third-place rankings. It is still not over, but the overnight Group A results were a major blow.

Scotland needed Mexico and South Korea to avoid defeat. Mexico did their part, beating Czechia 3-0, but South Africa’s 1-0 win over South Korea means Korea Republic finished third in Group A with three points, a goal difference of -1 and two goals scored. That puts them above Scotland, and reduces Scotland’s probability of progression to around 40%.

What Do Scotland Need To Progress?

If third-placed teams in nine or more groups finish on three points or more, the eight best sides will be ranked by points, goal difference, goals scored, team conduct and then FIFA ranking.

Scotland need four other third-placed teams to finish below them, either on points or on goal difference. The graphic below shows the specific results now required in the remaining groups - we need any combination of four groups to go our way:

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This article will be updated daily until Scotland are eliminated from the 2026 World Cup.

Tonight is the night Scotland’s group stage campaign comes to an end, in Miami against the most successful nation in World Cup history: Brazil. Before that, an update on how things stand after the most recent matches.

With eight of the 12 groups sending their third-placed team to the last 32, it would take either a heavy defeat tonight or a serious dose of bad luck for Scotland to be eliminated in the group stage. Even a heavy defeat may still be enough, and this article will show how the picture stands.

1. A win tonight: Scotland through automatically

   1. Scotland would finish second behind Morocco, or first if the African Champions* fail to beat Haiti at the same time.

2. A draw tonight: Scotland through in 3rd place (not officially confirmed)

   1. Scotland cannot finish in the top two with a draw, as Morocco would stay ahead of us on head-to-head, even if they lose to Haiti.

3. A loss tonight: Waiting for the remaining groups to finish to see whether three points is enough to progress as one of the best third-placed teams:

   1. On goal difference: if 8 or more 3rd placed teams finish on 3pts or more.

   2. On points: if 4 or more of the 3rd placed teams finish on fewer than 3pts.

If Scotland do go out, it would likely be on goal difference, or even goals scored. That would be the fourth time in nine World Cup appearances that Scotland have been eliminated on a tiebreaker.

The Current Third-Place Rankings

The third-place table is now starting to take shape, as all teams have played 2 of their 3 games. From this point on, the final two fixtures within each group kick off at the same time, in an attempt to protect sporting integrity and prevent teams from being able to play for a mutually beneficial result.

Of course, with third-placed teams now going through, that risk does not disappear. In some groups, a draw in the final match could suit both sides. Algeria Vs Austria, Egypt Vs Iran and Paraguay Vs Australia are all examples where a draw sends both sides through to the knockouts.

The staggered finish to the group stage makes that even more complicated. Later groups will know exactly what is required before they kick off, while earlier groups - like Scotland’s - do not know for definite.

Algeria Vs Austria is the final group-stage match, so both teams may know not only whether a draw is enough, but also the exact margin of defeat they can afford and still progress.

That would usually be less of an issue. No team should want to lose a World Cup match. But the complication here is the bracket, and which teams await in the next round. The winner of Algeria Vs Austria finishes second and is will, almost certainly, face Spain. The team finishing third would avoid Spain and, as things stand, could land a more favourable round-of-32 tie instead, against Canada or Egypt. The exact opponents waiting will be known before the match starts, and so if the loser will play Canada instead of Spain then this match could be a wild watch.

Could All Teams on 3 points Progress?

The results shown are the ones required to guarantee that a group’s third-placed team finishes on two points or fewer. If that happens in four of the 12 groups, every third-placed team on three points would progress, regardless of goal difference.

So far, five of the 12 groups already have three teams on three points or more. That includes Scotland’s group, Group C. Groups D, F, L and J are also marked as “already 3+” because their third-placed teams can no longer finish on two points or fewer. That’s not to say we have no interest in these groups; Scotland could still progress at the expense of the third-placed teams in Groups D or F on goal difference, if we finish level on points….

What If It Goes To Goal Difference?

If third-placed teams in nine or more groups finish on three points or more, the eight best sides will be ranked by points, goal difference, goals scored, team conduct and then FIFA ranking.

This graphic is less definitive before tonight’s match because we do not yet know Scotland’s final goal difference. I am including it now due to the number of requests for me to do it. If Scotland lose to Brazil, I will update it at full-time with the specific results required in each group, down to the goal.

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This article will be a daily summary of how things stand for Scotland until they are eliminated from the 2026 World Cup.

After a disappointing result at the impressive Boston Stadium in Foxborough, Scotland’s World Cup campaign surely has at least two more games still to run.

With eight of the 12 groups sending their third-placed team to the last 32, it would take either a total collapse against Brazil on Wednesday night in Miami or a serious dose of bad luck for Scotland to be eliminated in the group stage. Spoiler alert - even a total collapse may still see us through.

A win against Brazil would send Scotland through automatically in one of the top two positions. We would finish second behind Morocco, unless the African Champions* fail to beat Haiti at the same time, in which case Scotland would top the group.

A draw in Miami would also send Scotland through, but as one of the best third-placed teams. A defeat would leave us waiting for the remaining groups to finish to see if we’ve done enough, although Scotland could still progress even after a heavy loss to Brazil, as this article will show.

Scotland cannot finish in the top two with a draw. Even if Morocco lost to Haiti, they would finish above us on head-to-head after beating us in Boston.

If Scotland do go out, it would likely be on goal difference. That would be the fourth time in nine World Cup appearances that Scotland have been eliminated on a tiebreaker.

As an aside, three points for a win was not introduced at the World Cup until USA 1994. Scotland’s Italia ’90 elimination, as one of the lower-ranked third-placed teams, would also have come down to goal difference under the modern system. Our one win would have put us level with the Netherlands’ three draws, so we would have gone out on goal difference again, rather than by a point under the old two-points-for-a-win system.

The Current Third-Place Rankings

The third-place table is starting to take shape, with eight of the 12 groups having now played two matches. Over the next two days, every team will move to within one match of completing the group stage, so we will have a much clearer idea of where Scotland stand going into Wednesday night’s game against Brazil. But for now, it looks good.

Will 3 points be Enough?

I will update this permutations graphic daily, showing which results Scotland want elsewhere. After the Scotland Vs Brazil, I will also include goal-difference scenarios for the third-placed teams, if Scotland finish third.

For now, the results shown are the ones required to guarantee that a group’s third-placed team finishes on two points or fewer. If that happens in four of the 12 groups, every third-placed team on three points would progress.

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Defeats to Morocco and Brazil would leave us on three points and, at best, a -1 goal difference. We’d then face a nervous few days before finding out whether that would be enough to progress. Scotland’s group campaign finishes on Wednesday 24 June in Miami against Brazil, with the final group not ending until Saturday 27 June.

If Scotland can avoid defeat against either Morocco or Brazil, it will almost certainly be enough to reach the knockouts for the first time in our history. It would be 13th time lucky, after 12 previous group stage campaigns without progression - the most of any European nation by far.

Across those 12 previous campaigns, we’ve never managed more than one win at a tournament. The victory over Haiti ended our longest winless run in major tournament history: nine matches.

I am here in Boston and can’t wait for the Morocco game tomorrow night, and am on my knees for Scotland to remain unbeaten come full time.

However.

If we lose both remaining games and go out on goal difference, it would remarkably be the fourth time this has happened to Scotland in nine World Cup campaigns. That would extend our unwanted record as the nation eliminated on a tiebreaker more than any other; only Scotland and South Africa have suffered such a fate more than once:

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A Scottish top-flight player scoring at a World Cup is actually a pretty rare achievement, and Eli Just has already become the joint-second-highest scoring World Cup player based in Scotland.

He is only the second player to score a World Cup double while playing for a Scottish club, after Celtic’s Henrik Larsson scored twice against Nigeria in Sweden’s 2-1 win in 2002. Larsson also scored against Senegal in a last-16 defeat at the same tournament, making Henrik the highest-scoring Scottish-based World Cup player ever.

With two goals, Just is now level with Brian Laudrup, who scored against both Nigeria and Brazil at France 1998, in the final few weeks of his Rangers contract before joining Chelsea on 1st July that year.

The list of all 13 Scottish-based World Cup goalscorers:

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That is broadly in line with football overall, where around 1 in 4 matches are drawn. In the Scottish top flight, there have been 7,316 draws since league football was established in 1890, accounting for 22% of matches. This century, since 2000/01, that has increased only marginally to 23.7%, with 1,395 draws.

At the time of writing, each of the last four World Cup matches has been drawn, equalling the longest such run in group-stage history. After Scotland lost 2-1 to Brazil in the opening match of France ’98 on 10 June, the next four matches were all drawn: Morocco 2-2 Norway, Italy 2-2 Chile, Cameroon 1-1 Austria and Paraguay 0-0 Bulgaria.

The 50% rate is well above the 24% average for total group-stage draws, shown in the left-hand column in the image below. The 2026 World Cup group stage is still less than a quarter of the way through, so we can expect this percentage to regress towards the average over the next two weeks

However, it is already clear that we are seeing more draws in the opening round of matches than at an average World Cup. There will be 24 opening matches by the time we get through all 12 groups, with 16 of them played so far.

Even if none of the next eight matches is drawn, 2026 will still have produced the largest actual number of draws ever in the opening round of World Cup matches. That is clearly partly because this is the largest World Cup ever, but the percentage tells a similar story, in the right-hand column of the below image.

Even if there are no more draws in the opening round, 2026 will have had 8 of its 24 opening matches drawn, or 33.3%. That would be the second-highest percentage since 1982, behind only South Africa 2010, when 37.5% of opening-round matches were drawn.

Three draws from the next eight matches would mean 46% of opening matches were drawn at the 2026 World Cup, the highest percentage in World Cup history.

Is This Good News?

For a nation probably looking to progress as one of the eight best third-placed teams, is this run of draws good for Scotland?

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On Sunday morning, Scotland played their first World Cup game in 28 years. They recorded their first World Cup victory in 36 years, their first clean sheet in 40 years, their first win to nil in 52 years, and now sit top of a World Cup group for just the third time in history.

John McGinn scored the only goal, taking his Scotland tally to 21 goals, all of which have come since Steve Clarke took over in 2019. Excluding the ‘selection committee’ - which was how the national team was picked before the appointment of our first manager Andy Beattie in 1954, no player in the history of the Scotland men’s national team has scored more goals for a single manager than McGinn has for Clarke. He’s tied with Denis Law who scored 21 of his 30 goals under manager Ian McColl.

Given the longevity of Scotland’s longest-serving manager, several of Clarke’s regulars feature in the top 10 of such a ranking, with McTominay third, Adams fifth and Lyndon Dykes completing the top ten.

John McGinn is Scotland’s fifth top goalscorer ever and his winner moved him one closer to Lawrie Reilly in the actual all-time goalscorers chart. McGinn is now four goals short of claiming the outright third top goalscorer in Scotland’s history, a mark he will hope to reach in the next few years. Scott McTominay has also moved into the all-time top ten after scoring his 15th goal for Scotland in the warm-up friendly against Bolivia last week. McSauce needs three goals to catch Kenny Miller and four would draw him level with Ally McCoist - which would be a phenomenal achievement for a man who is not a striker and who played centre back for many of his early caps with the national team.

A missed opportunity?

Leaving Foxborough with three points was obviously the most important aspect of matchday 1, however there is a fair argument that it was also a missed opportunity. Given the eight best third-placed teams will be decided on goal difference, beating the pot 4 side by just a solitary goal leaves us vulnerable.

It means that if we lose both remaining games then the best case scenario becomes three points and a goal difference of -1. If either, or both, of the top-10 ranked sides in our group put more than one past us then we are in danger of going out on goal difference for the fourth time in nine World Cups.

Only four of the 12 third-placed teams will be eliminated, and so the target is to be in the top 66% of third-placed teams. Since France ‘98, when a 32 team format was introduced, there have been eight groups at each World Cup. A rough equivalent would be finishing as the fifth-best third-placed team across the eight groups at each tournament.

The comparison is flawed of course, as this was when there were only eight groups - but also none of the third-placed teams progressed. There would have been some meaningless games at the end of the group stages where the teams playing knew they couldn’t catch the top two and so their record in third place was irrelevant.

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This article was written for Scottishfootball.info by Josh Duncan, an aspiring sports writer, who has his own Substack account.
Please follow him there and on X.com.

Josh’s latest article will be the first in his series of deep-dives into Premiership transfers this summer. This won’t be a focus on Rangers, as Josh does this on his own page, and instead will cover signings and rumours across all Premiership clubs.
This edition features Hearts, Dundee United, Kilmarnock and Aberdeen.

With World Cup fever gripping the country, it might be easy to forget that the transfer window opens today. Some teams will be starting fresh and building for the future, while others will be reinforcing an already established core.

Teams have already begun making their moves throughout the Scottish Premiership, deals done ready to be sealed when the window opens. Some clubs have already announced their first incomings of the summer, getting business done early to avoid the World Cup whirlwind.

Scottish clubs, especially outside the Old Firm, are often underrepresented when it comes to detailed analysis of new signings. So for ScottishFootball.info this summer, I am going to try and give insights on some of the most interesting signings and rumours throughout the Scottish Premiership.

I will pick a few each week to watch and share my views on their playstyles and quality. My biggest focus will be to give coverage to all of the teams in the league, except for Rangers as I cover all the Rangers signings on my own substack.

So with the main ideas of this series outlined, let’s get underway. I have four early signings/rumours that I’d like to cover this time.

Amadou Ba-Sy

In typical Jamestown fashion, Hearts have headed to the French 3rd division (Championnat National) and signed FC Rouen forward Amadou Ba-Sy. The 25 year old stands at 6’4 and registered 6 goals and 4 assists in the league last season.

Ba-Sy is a huge physical presence, his size and strength stand out massively in his league. He faces almost no defenders that can match him up man for man. You add to this that his long strides give him great pace, then you have a difficult day for any defence.

He understands how to use his body to gain advantages and get himself chances. His strength allows him to hold off most defenders using just one arm, allowing him to roll away into the channel. This gives his opponent the choice of fouling or letting him run straight towards goal.

Ba-Sy gets these chances often but is inconsistent in taking them, his touches often put him in awkward shooting positions. This means that he either needs another touch or has to shoot off balance, both choices usually mean squandering the chance.

His best technical attributes actually show up when he drifts out wide. Despite his unorthodox movements, something you see a lot with very tall players, he actually dribbles past opponents often. His dribbling is deceptive and defenders find him hard to read.

This is really sound technique, gets the ball onto his right to size up the defender. The sort of micro touch into the step-over allows him to push off of his right leg to immediately go left. He gets a bit of a lucky bounce but the decision to go straight back against the second defender’s momentum is also a good one.

Ba-Sy’s link and hold up play is quite a mixed bag overall. If you can play the ball into his feet, his technique is sound. He will control it quickly and move the ball on at the first opportunity.

When he has to deal with the ball in the air though, he struggles. Aerial duels often see Ba-Sy mistime his jumps, missing the ball entirely due to a poor read.

His technique when controlling in tight spaces is poor as well, he will take multiple touches to bring the ball under control. If he tries to turn then the touch is often heavy, losing possession for his team:

What it looks like Hearts are getting is the typical modern striker that data loves. A player that gets lots of chances but doesn’t score many. His physical quality will translate to Scotland pretty easily, which is how he gets his chances for the most part. Hearts will bank on him being able to take enough of those chances to offset the issues within his game.

I actually think, due to his attributes, Hearts may get more from him out on the wing than as a proper striker.

Hugo Ahl

Dundee United have been linked with a couple of wingers early on that have piqued my interest. Hungarian winger Bence Babos and Swedish winger Hugo Ahl have both been linked with moves to the Tannadice side.

Ahl is 24 years old and stands at around 6’2, he mostly plays on the right wing for Zemplín Michalovce in the Slovakian top flight. He managed 10 goals and 4 assists in just over 2000 league minutes last season.

Ahl is a very front footed winger, wanting to attack the spaces around the back post or cut inside onto his weaker left to get shots off. He reacts very well to loose balls in the box and is comfortable shooting on either side.

When Ahl receives the ball here, he brings it under his spell quickly. He then brings the ball into close control, this forces the full back to be concerned about Ahl taking him on. Ahl is aware of the defensive help on its way and turns in quickly against the second defenders’ momentum. This creates the separation he needs for the shot.

He usually prefers to curl these shots with his left foot, when he tries to hit with the laces it takes him more time to prepare the shot. This time he has plenty of space but there are times where he squanders opportunities by failing to shoot quickly enough.

This second clip shows a couple of things, first, the ability to attack the back post and react in the box that I mentioned. As the ball progresses towards the box, notice how Ahl hangs back, in line with the ball carrier. He waits for the play to develop and his marker loses him completely when trying to cover someone else. He gets to the ball first and the left foot finish is assured.

The second thing it shows is one of my issues with Ahl’s game. Ahl is fast for his size, covering ground well with his long strides. He can get up to speed decently well, it’s the slowing down that’s the problem.

Notice as the ball comes in how Ahl has to stop and react to the ball behind him, it takes him a few steps to stop and even longer to change his momentum the other way. Luckily he has plenty of time in this instance but in tighter attacking situations, this could be the difference between a goal or a blocked shot.

Ahl is more of a scorer than a creator but he does have parts of his game that aid creativity. Despite how often he gets on his left, Ahl is more right footed and he uses this to drive down the outside and find teammates in the box.

He uses his movement before the pass to create separation, rather than carrying the ball. Ahl isn’t an incredible ball carrier over distance, so he uses intelligent movement and his strong first touch to create advantages.

With just a year left on his deal, I think there’s an opportunity for Dundee United to get a great deal here. Players who can stretch defences, move intelligently and score in multiple ways aren’t easy to come by for smaller teams. I hope that they continue this kind of talent identification throughout the window.

Ieuan Owen

Kilmarnock announced the signing of Barry Town United striker, Ieuan Owen. The 5’7 Welshman bagged 11 goals and an assist this season in the Cymru Premier.

When you see a smaller player achieve success, especially at just 20 years old, they usually have something about them that offsets the disadvantage. That’s what made me interested in watching Owen.

The main thing that stands out when watching Owen is his industry. He runs non stop to put pressure on opposing defences and creates chances this way often. Owen is aware of what he covers when pressing and that makes him more effective.

Owen is good at causing chaos but a lot of his best work comes from receiving around the edge of the box and getting quick shots away. His technique on the right foot gets consistent power, allowing him to pull off some great finishes.

His creativity is generally lacking for me, he doesn’t get involved much through the middle and gets physically outmatched by most opponents. He does show a bit more creative ability drifting out wide and taking on players 1v1.

In general play Owen struggles a lot to get involved, he floats about all over the pitch but doesn’t really have the ability to take the ball without a lot of space. If a pass is played to him under pressure, he is very easily bullied by opponents.

Kilmarnock are going to have to get players around him that can find him with passes in space. His out of possession work will be big for them and will probably get him some goals. I think this is a smart signing from Kilmarnock overall but there are big concerns about whether Owen will handle the physical intensity of Scottish football.

Alexander Briedl

Alexander Briedl is one of a few signings already announced by Aberdeen before the beginning of the window, as they look to return to the top half of the table.

The defensive midfielder moves on a free transfer after his contract ended at Austrian side BW Linz. I had already watched Briedl earlier in the year and some of his play caught my eye, which is why I chose him over the other Aberdeen incomings.

On the ball, I like Briedl’s mentality of moving the ball quickly while also looking for progressive options. He isn’t going to take progressive risks under pressure but during settled progression he looks to carve through the midfield.

There are a few little decisions in this clip that make a big difference. First Briedl waits on the defender to engage him before releasing the first pass, giving his winger more time.

Then he receives the ball in space and looks forward, strong pass on his weak foot into the half space and moves to receive again straight away. This opens up his ability to find a teammate on the weaker side of the play, who has the space for a shot.

Another part of Briedl’s game I like is his ability to recover at pace and then settle things back down. He has strong recovery pace and the willingness to get back.

Briedl is actually the one who takes the corner before this counter. He comes flying back to stop that counter, putting in a great challenge before his teammate mops up. He gets back up into the disorganised defensive shape and moves the ball through the pressure so his team can settle.

In terms of weaknesses, Briedl is not a real factor in the final third. His game is more about feeding the more attacking players than getting involved in the attack itself. Just 1 goal and 1 assist last season for Briedl encapsulates that pretty well. His one goal is a nice strike though:

Defensively I find that he is drawn to the ball a lot in situations that it’s not necessary, leaving gaps behind him. Despite his speed, Briedl is not particularly agile and if he’s taken out of the play his change of direction to recover isn’t great.

In the clip above, Briedl has a player in between himself and a teammate. Briedl wants to engage the player in possession but is too far away. He steps up anyway, right as the pass is played to the player next to him. This allows his opponent to receive against Briedl’s momentum and the player who passed the ball originally can run off Briedl’s blindside and into the box.

What Aberdeen have found for themselves is a solid all round midfielder who can handle the physicality in Scotland. Add to that his work ethic and ball progression skills, the Dons might have the foundational piece for their midfield. What’s most important now is to get the recruitment right for the players in front of him.

So in this first one, I’ve highlighted four players in the early summer that I think will have an impact on their teams next season. Hopefully these early profiles give supporters a better idea of what their new, or potential new, signings could bring.

Some weeks there will probably be more players looked at, but I wanted to start slowly with the transfer window not officially under way.

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The 207 days since that euphoric night at Hampden Park, when Scotland defeated Denmark 4-2 to secure automatic qualification, have flown by. FIFA have done their level best to ruin it, of course. From ticket allocations to drink prices, transport arrangements and allowing the reselling of disabled tickets at an unlimited price, so long as they receive 30%, FIFA have made the choice that maximises profit at the expense of the match-going fan at every juncture.

They embody everything wrong with modern football, and the treatment by the host nation of some visiting referees, teams and fans should be enough to see president Gianni Infantino resign, given all the promises and guarantees he has made regarding this tournament.

But FIFA cannot ruin it, no matter how hard they apparently are trying to. Scotland are back on the big stage and, with the expansion of the tournament, we are rightly odds-on with the bookies to make history and finally play a knockout match at a major tournament.

Scotland’s World Cup History

This will be Scotland's ninth World Cup after a truly torturous 28-year absence. It felt like we would never qualify again, with the younger generation living off tales of the glory days, when we were one of only five teams to qualify for every World Cup from 1974 to 1990, alongside Argentina, Brazil, Italy and West Germany. Our full record across the previous eight tournaments ultimately all show the same outcome - eliminated in the group stages. However, that doesn’t tell the full story.

When analysing some of our previous failed finals, Scotland managed a tally of at least three points in four of eight tournaments, when adjusting for three points for a win. In the current format in 2026, three points will be enough for several teams to progress in third place, even with a negative goal difference.

In 1974, Scotland became the first team to be eliminated in the group stages despite not losing a game, a cruel fate suffered by only three other nations since: Cameroon in 1982, Belgium in 1998 and New Zealand in 2010. One win and two draws in a group containing Brazil was a fantastic achievement and, in the modern format, would result in qualification with a game to spare, rather than the goal difference elimination it resulted in back then.

Similarly, the four points earned in 1978 and 1982 would be enough to progress in 2026 in near enough 100% of simulations, but it meant elimination on goal difference, again, back then. So, although our World Cup record is poor, with no team having played in more competitions without ever progressing, the context is that we have been unlucky.

Also, given we are now at 48 teams in a World Cup tournament, Scotland would have to win two knockout ties to technically go further than ever before. Given we have qualified for 16-team World Cups, "the last 16" is strictly speaking our best-ever showing, something we have managed four times.

If we progress with a win against Haiti while losing to Morocco and Brazil, but are then eliminated in the last 32, can we truly say it was a better effort than Willie Ormond's men in 1974, who were undefeated in the group stage, including against the 1970 world champions Brazil?

Do not get me wrong, I fly to Boston on Wednesday hoping to witness history next Friday night as a Scotland team progresses to the knockout stage of a major tournament for the first time. And I would probably be in tears, not just because of the price of beer in the stadium.

But realistically, I think it is fair to say that for it to truly be Scotland's most successful World Cup ever, we need to not only reach the last 32, but win a knockout tie to reach the last 16 too. That is not too much to ask, surely?

What Is Needed to Progress?

So, without getting ahead of myself (spoiler: this whole article is me getting ahead of myself), it is obvious that we must beat Haiti. As an aside, if Hearts striker Lawrence Shankland scores against Haiti, it will be the 23rd time a Scotsman has scored in three consecutive matches, and just the fifth time this century:

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The draws begin next week, with the QR1 draw on Tuesday 16 June and the QR2 draw the following day, on Wednesday 17 June.

Both Motherwell and Hibs will be in Wednesday’s draw, but on opposite sides of the QR2 seeding line. This is based on club coefficient, not on where they finished in the Scottish Premiership last season.

Motherwell’s five-year club coefficient is 1.500, which is lower than 20% of Scotland’s association coefficient (6.41). That means Motherwell use the higher figure, 6.41, for seeding purposes. Hibernian’s own five-year club coefficient is 7.0, which is higher than 20% of Scotland’s coefficient, so Hibs use their own coefficient.

Being seeded in QR2 is an obvious advantage for Hibs, as it should give them a more favourable tie than Motherwell. The trade off is that Hibs would be guaranteed to be unseeded in QR3 if they progress, whereas Motherwell could be seeded.

Motherwell’s position is slightly more complicated. They will definitely be unseeded in QR2, but could end up on the seeded side of the QR3 draw depending on who they eliminate. That is explained in more detail in the QR3 section below.

Qualifying Round Two (QR2)

The graphics below show the potential QR2 opponents for both Scottish clubs, as well as the prize money at stake for progression or elimination.

Teams listed without a letter after their name enter the competition in QR2, so they are confirmed as potential opponents.

Where a team has a W or L after their name, it means they enter in an earlier round in either the Europa League or the Conference League. For example, the QR2 draw may contain “winner of RFS v team X” rather than simply RFS - because RFS have a Conference QR1 tie to win first.

Similarly the “loser of the tie involving Vojvodina” assumes that Vojvodina lose their Europa League QR1 tie, but they could win this and so it would be the team that they beat that features as a Conference League QR2 opponent for Hibs instead. The missing potential opponent in those cases will be known after the QR1 draw, which takes place next Tuesday, the day before the QR2 draw

Motherwell - QR2

Unseeded Motherwell’s list of potential seeded opponents, that will be narrowed down to five teams next Wednesday. For each tie, the first team drawn is at home in the first leg - seeding doesn’t matter.

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Every year, a new edition of the Laws of the Game are published, and a document describing any changes is released. The next edition takes effect from 1 July 2026, but competitions that begin before that date can either implement the changes early or delay them until the start of their next competition.

The 2026 World Cup starts tomorrow, a few weeks before this date, and FIFA have confirmed they will implement the changes, and so we will see these new laws in effect at this tournament.

Annual changes to the laws can sometimes be confusing for fans as the changes are often not well communicated. Those watching a match might expect a certain outcome from the referee, based on what they remember seeing in previous seasons. But actually a change in the law has occurred meaning a new outcome would be expected.

An example of this from last season would be that previously it was an automatic red card for denying a goal with a handball offence. An example of this law being followed was in May 2024, as Kilmarnock’s Joe Wright was shown a straight red card for a handball on the goal line - preventing a goal, as seen in the Sky Sports Video:

To most that watch football, this punishment seems harsh, as although he has stopped a goal, it was completely accidental. The lawmakers agreed, and so for season 2024/25 the laws were changed and an offence like Joe Wright’s (a non-deliberate handball, denying a goal) was no longer a sending off.

Therefore those that were calling for Dujon Sterling to receive a red card for denying a goal with a non-deliberate handball against Celtic in March, were likely unaware of the law change at the beginning of last season. A penalty award then was correct, but a sending off would have been incorrect - even though it would have been correct less than 12 months prior.

This is where fans, or even pundits, can sometimes fail to get their point across properly regarding refereeing decisions. There is a difference between “that should not be a red card, because the referee has misinterpreted the law” and “that should not be a red card, because I personally believe the law is too harsh, and would like to see it changed so it isn’t a red card in future”.

Who Implements Change?

The International Football Association Board (IFAB) is the organisation that writes and updates the Laws of the Game, essentially the official rulebook for football worldwide. IFAB was founded in 1886 by the four British football associations, The FA (England), The SFA (Scotland), the FAW (Wales) and the IFA (was Ireland, now Northern Ireland).

As a matter of principle, the Laws are global - the same Laws apply everywhere, and they must not be altered except where The IFAB permits modifications (for example, certain “organisational” changes at youth, disability, veterans, and grassroots level). However it is of course possible to see variations in how the laws are applied from country to country, for subjective decisions like a penalty for a handball or for forceful tackles - “you just don’t get away with those in Europe”.

Actual changes to the Laws can only be introduced during the AGM. Any football association or football body can propose a law change, but for a proposal to get to the stage where a law is presented at an AGM it must be assessed and approved by the The Board of Directors (BoD). The BoD includes the CEOs of the four FA’s plus FIFA’s secretary general.

As the yellow graphic at the start shows, The BoD are supported by the Technical Subcommittee (TSC), which includes “former renowned international referees”, including Pierluigi Collina, Mike Riley, Howard Webb and Willie Collum.

The TSC assesses and analyses potential Law changes and interpretations proposed, as well as overseeing experiments and trials approved by the Board of Directors (BoD).

Lastly, there are external advisory panels, the The Football and Technical Advisory Panels (FAP and TAP), which bring together experts from across the world of football. The FAP consists of former football players as well as former and current coaches. Their purpose is to bring expertise and knowledge to the discussions of footballing issues and the sporting aspects of potential Law changes.

That’s why we hear of “Wenger’s offside law” in the media, as he is in a position where he is able to recommend law changes - however any change would still need to be approved by the BoD.

Next Season’s Law Changes

These are the key changes that have been approved and published and will take effect next season. As fans we will first see them implemented at the World Cup, starting on Thursday!

Change 1.)
MATCH TEMPO

The IFAB approved a set of measures which build on last season’s visible countdown to enforce the goalkeeper 8-second restriction for holding on to the ball for too long, which would result in a corner to the opposition.

This will now be extended to include throw-ins and goal-kicks

THROW-INS

If the referee judges a team is unfairly delaying a throw-in, they whistle, signal the restart, then run a five second visual countdown (raised hand). If the throw-in is not taken by the end of the countdown, the throw-in is awarded to the opponents.

The referee does not need to wait for the player to have the ball before starting the countdown - it can begin if the team is delaying by, for example, slowly retrieving the ball or taking an incorrect position. If the player is already in the act of throwing as the countdown ends, the protocol says they should not be penalised.

GOAL KICKS

The goal kick version is the same mechanism: whistle, signal, then a five second visual countdown. If the kick is not taken in time, the punishment is more severe - the opponents receive a corner kick.

The feedback from 400+ trial matches before the implementation of the goalkeeper countdown last season said that there very few offences but the game was faster and that the countdown was helpful. So although we may not see many throw-ins or corners awarded to the opposition team, this is because the countdown itself has been shown to reduce time wasting.

Change 2.)

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There are 338 Scottish players that have never lost a Scotland match in which they scored. Impressive, but 185 of them only scored once for Scotland, so we’ll ignore them. Sorry, lads.

That leaves 153 players who scored at least two goals for Scotland and avoided defeat every time they did so. Still too many.

Only 46 men have scored five or more goals for Scotland without losing any of those games. Now we’re getting somewhere.

Six Is The Magic Number

Exactly 25 players have scored six or more goals for Scotland without ever losing a match in which they scored.

So apologies to Charlie Nicholas, Darren Fletcher, Gary McAllister, Stuart Armstrong, Sir Alex Ferguson, Darren Jackson, Leigh Griffiths, Scott Brown and hundreds of others, but your unbeaten scoring run for Scotland isn’t making the cut.

The good news is that three of the 25 are in the Scotland World Cup squad, including numbers one and two on the all-time list.

The 25 Scotland men who have scored at least six times for Scotland, and never lost a match in which they scored, are:

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For generations of football fans, the Panini album has been the unofficial start of the tournament. The crinkle of a foil packet before you tear it open, revealing either the unbridled joy of getting a ‘shiny’, or the frustration of finding the same South American full back - who you assume to be shite - for the fourth time. It is football reduced to its simplest playground thrill: got, got, got, need!

Panini’s story began in Modena, Italy, where Giuseppe and Benito Panini turned a newspaper distribution business into a sticker empire in 1961, later joined by brothers Franco and Umberto. They produced the first World Cup sticker album for Mexico 1970. Since then, the 'Panini’ album has become part of the tournament’s furniture, passed from one generation to the next. The children who once begged for another packet at RS McColl’s are now the adults, buying the overpriced stickers for their own children. The adults of course find themselves just as invested in completing the album as the kids - if not more invested. “Get to school and don’t come back without a Haaland shiny, wee man.”

Over time, the size of the books has naturally increased with the size of the tournament, and the 2026 World Cup collection reflects the largest ever 48-team format, with 980 stickers to collect, including 68 special stickers. That’s a 263% increase in number of stickers from the 270 stickers in the first edition.

What was once a modest childhood habit has become a global collecting phenomenon, with adult collectors, online trading groups and completed vintage albums now commanding serious money. It’s estimated it could cost up to £1,300 to complete this years book, as buying the seven-sticker packs at £1.25 would mean at least 140 packets are needed, but the likelihood of duplicates increases the minimum cost dramatically. That’s why swaps wth other collectors are so important, meaning you could complete the book for ‘only’ a couple of hundred quid.

The collection in its current guise will end soon though, as this World Cup tradition approaches the end of an era. FIFA has agreed a long-term exclusive collectibles deal with ‘Fanatics’, with products to be produced under the ‘Topps’ brand from 2031. That means Panini’s official World Cup sticker run will finish after the 2030 tournament, bringing down the curtain on a 60-year partnership that began in 1970.

By then, Panini will have covered 16 men’s World Cups across seven decades, with Scotland featuring in seven of those albums so far, and hopefully eight by the time 2030 comes around. A 50% participation rate in the Panini era feels almost hard to believe, given our near 30-year drought means you’d need to be in at least your mid 40s to have been able to legally buy alcohol at the last one!

Thanks to a colleague of mine, a Panini-head from Switzerland called Izzie, I can bring you to the main point of this article, involving numbers and pictures. Izzie has her own personal collection of every Panini book in existence, completed and in its original beauty. She has very kindly sent me pictures of the Scotland squads from her collection, to share with you all, and from that I of course had to analyse Panini’s success rate when it comes to the Scotland players they have chosen for each album over time. Enjoy.

Mexico ‘70 - Did not Qualify

Germany ‘74

In 1974, Panini had 79% accuracy in their sticker selection, with three of their 14 chosen players not making the final squad. Alistair Hunter and Derek Parlane were chosen by Panini but not by manager Willie Ormond, while George Connelly missed the World Cup through injury, suffered during Celtic’s European Cup tie against Basel.

Argentina ‘78

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This article has the answers to a quiz question I posted on social media earlier today. I was writing an article on the clubs that have only ever provided one player to the Scotland national team, and decided to pose the question online first. Perfect quiz question material, or so I thought.

Perfect quiz question material - or so I thought.

Most of the wrong answers were probably my fault, as the wording in my post admittedly wasn’t clear. The question I meant to ask was:

there are nearly 70 clubs that have only ever provided one player to the national team; name the 29 clubs to join that list since France ‘98.

I ended up trying and failing to explain, on four different social media platforms, why Che Adams at Torino doesn’t count as an answer, because Denis Law played for Torino in 1961.

Anyway. The answers are here, along with the number of players every club has provided to the national team, and the total number of caps awarded to players of each club.

One Scotland Player Clubs

If you ask it correctly, this could be a good question to pass the time when travelling to America. Take turns naming clubs that have provided players to the Scotland national team. Amazingly, there are 174 correct answers.

Of those 174 clubs, 69 have provided exactly one player, while the other 105 have provided two or more. Guessing the 69 clubs that have only ever provided one player becomes very difficult, very quickly.

Only 105 of those have provided more than 2 players, so guessing these 69 clubs that have only ever provided one player starts to become very difficult, very quickly.

The quiz question answers for the one-club-players since 1998 are the first 29 clubs in this graphic down until O’Neill with Wolfsburg 1998.

Scotland Players By Club

Across those 174 clubs, there are 1,710 club/player combinations, involving the 1,244 men that have played for Scotland. The 69 clubs above have provided exactly one player, with the remaining 105 clubs providing two or more.

This next list shows the 41 clubs to provide 12 or more players, purely because the graphic would get too big if I went down to the next 64 clubs, who have provided 11 or fewer.

The top three English clubs may surprise you!

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This article was written for Scottishfootball.info by Josh Duncan, an aspiring sports writer, who has his own Substack account. Please follow him there and on X.com.

Josh’s latest article will be the fourth in a series of ‘squad building’ exercises, looking specifically at Rangers, having already covered their centre backs, full backs and goalkeepers.

Josh will be writing regularly for the website covering signings/rumours at all Scottish clubs, keeping his Rangers specific analysis on his own page. Please leave comments for any players you would like to see featured.

We are closing in on the beginning of the summer window now and as I’ve outlined in this series, Rangers have a lot to do. They have started out with the acquisition of Hearts captain Lawrence Shankland.

Ball Hawk

Lawrence Shankland

Lawrence Shankland is finally a Rangers player. The club announced his signing last week after years of being linked to the club. He is the first signing in what must be a busy window for the club, coming in for free due to a contract clause…

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a month ago · 11 likes · 2 comments · Josh Duncan

Andrew Cavenagh and his team will be aware that the squad needs some serious turnover once again and look to be prepared to do some early business.

No area is in more need of quality improvement than the Rangers midfield in my opinion. This season showing the latest in a series of Rangers teams unable to consistently control games or create chances.

When I began the research for this one, around a month ago now, I didn’t expect to struggle so much to find specific players to show in the article. I learned throughout the process that most midfielders that are good enough for Rangers are already out of the clubs reach.

This article ended up as an explanation of ways Rangers can mitigate this issue as much as one about scouting/profiling their midfield.

The Midfield

Tochi Chukwuani has struggled to start his Rangers career but given the outlay and the lack of time I wouldn’t expect to see him going anywhere this summer.

That leaves Nicolas Raskin, Mohammed Diomande and Connor Barron of the midfield starters. I think Rangers will be selling at least two of this group. The most likely for me would be Raskin and Diomande given that they will have the most suitors and Barron fills a home grown spot.

Although if Rangers can replace Connor Barron with more quality depth, it would improve the squad on a base level.

Rangers have reportedly opened talks over a new contract with Bailey Rice, I’d like to see him stay and be given an opportunity. I believe there is still potential there for him to become an important part of the squad. If he were to leave this summer, this spot could go to another youth option or a loan for depth.

Danny Rohl has switched between a midfield 2 and 3 a lot so far in his time so I will be looking to find players who can accommodate both setups. This means we are going to look for one backup and two starters.

We’re going to look for a starting number 6 and then a more creative/goal scoring midfielder for the starting positions. This is because more than anything, the Rangers midfield has lacked creativity in recent years.

That ability to consistently create is as important for controlling and dominating games as winning battles off the ball. It is a lot easier to keep opponents penned back if you can consistently break them down and create.

The Backup

Rangers have already been linked to a player I would deem a decent backup in Elliot Watt. However, I have already written a more detailed report on Elliot Watt and you can read the full thing here.

Ball Hawk

Elliot Watt

It was another predictable season end for Rangers in this campaign, watching the team fail to show its quality when it really matters. We now get a small respite from Rangers as we all get prepared to see Scotland in a World Cup for the first time this century…

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a month ago · 14 likes · 5 comments · Josh Duncan

What I believe Rangers really need from a backup midfielder is a creative/goal scoring threat. The club has suffered from a lack of attacking contribution from the midfield for years now and that’s something I’d like to address throughout the midfield in this article.

The profile for this player was as simple as they get. I wanted to add a bit more physical presence to the midfield so I looked for players in the 8/10 positions that were over 180cm.

I wanted the potential for this player to develop into something more than just the backup as well so I looked at options aged 25 and under.

Then I added in players that had at least 10 goal contributions in the last season. To look more specifically, I looked for players above average in shots p90 and shot assists p90, to find someone that was consistently finding shooting opportunities for themselves and team mates. This led me to a few players to watch more in depth.

Svit Seslar

Svit Seslar is a 24 year old Slovenian midfielder playing for NK Celje. Seslar has had an unusual couple of seasons after being signed by Turkish side Eyupspor in 23/24.

He has spent time on loan at current club NK Celje before returning to his Turkish parent side for the first half of this season. He was then permanently signed to Celje in January.

Despite this turmoil, Seslar has kept contributing. With 24 goals and 27 assists in the last two seasons. This is the sort of attacking option we want to bring to the squad.

Seslar has a fantastic left foot, able to generate great power on shots from all angles and techniques. He is incredibly willing to get shots off from range and can be relied upon in the box as well.

He definitely has some struggles in his overall game, that’s why he’s the backup. His speed is an issue and his ability to control the ball on his weaker right foot sometimes lacks. However, when Seslar gets around the box these issues seem to go out the window.

When Seslar gets into positions in which he can combine around the box, his best play comes out. He moves the ball really quickly, playing on instinct to create chances. Moving the ball at speed is one of the best ways to break down stubborn defences.

Seslar also provides an option at set pieces. His left footed delivery is great for in swinging corners and free kicks. He gets great shape on his free kick deliveries especially, creating serious indecision from defenders and goalkeepers.

Seslar isn’t a perfect player but he provides something that Rangers don’t currently have in terms of squad options. He can play multiple positions and be an attacking threat late in games when Rangers are looking for winners or insurance goals.

Number 6 Profile

For a team like Rangers, my opinion is that the number 6 and the wingers are the most important positions. The number 6 has to be able to handle defensive work, control the build up and pick out those final passes or shots when teams are defending deep.

Finding players capable of all this is difficult, as the club have continually showed. I think what the club need to learn is that this position requires extra resources to recruit properly. The club will have to be prepared to spend more and compete for better talent in this area of the pitch.

The profile I went for started with number 6’s that have over 1500 minutes played this season. The height wasn’t as much of a concern as other positions so I didn’t set a parameter here.

For passing, I set out pretty high standards. I wanted a player who was 80th percentile or above for progressive passes and key passes in their leagues. I wanted to find a player who could not only get the ball moving but also be a creative influence as well.

I then wanted to make sure that the player could also carry the ball out as well as pass it. I looked for players that were above average for dribbles per 90 and progressive runs per 90. These are runs which carry the ball closer to the opponents goal by a certain distance, the distance required to count as a progressive run extends the further the player is from goal.

Finally I wanted someone who won over 60% of their defensive duels and was above average in interceptions per 90. The goal here is to find an intelligent defender, who positions well and makes strong decisions.

This gave me the names to watch in depth and come up with a target.

Yassine Titraoui

Yassine Titraoui is a 22 year old Algerian midfielder playing for Charleroi in the Belgian Pro League. Titraoui is the first player that I have suggested that Rangers would not be the top dogs when trying to sign them. Titraoui has tentative links to Premier League teams although reportedly no bids have been made.

I don’t think Titraoui is ready to start at that level yet so Rangers would be able to offer him a starting role in a European side to tempt him over other options. The likely cost of around £7 million, is now comfortably within the realm of possibility. It is the ability to tempt him to the club that will be more difficult.

The main reason I chose him though, was to illustrate the level of player I think the club needs to start at number 6.

One of the things I really enjoy about Titraoui is his pace of play. Far too often you see Rangers midfielders hold on to the ball instead of keeping things moving, making it very easy for opponents to stay organised.

Titraoui like to move the ball quickly, passing and then moving to receive again constantly. If he wins a loose ball he looks for an option straight away, which helps his team out of pressure.

The only time he slows down in the build up phase is when he sees the space to find a more progressive pass. He can hit these incisive out to in passes really well on either foot, breaking through the lines.

Titraoui’s dribbling is another top attribute. He accelerates really well and doesn’t lose speed with the ball at his feet. He will carry into space whenever he sees the opportunity and will bypass opponents while carrying at speed.

He is great at creating opportunities this way, driving forward and getting shots off himself or setting up a teammate. He does sometimes get caught trying to draw fouls, turning the ball over.

His best attribute is his creativity, he gets involved in the attack in multiple ways. Titraoui loves to move around the edges of the box and find crosses or cutbacks to create opportunities.

He will also look for quick combinations around the box in order to create opportunities. His acceleration really helps here, he’s hard to track in tight spaces and gets himself into good positions consistently.

Titraoui is also very skilled at shooting from range, an attribute that would be very useful playing against the types of defences Rangers face. He consistently arrives at the edge of the box getting quick shots away with great accuracy and power. Below are some clips of his goals this season.

Titraoui’s propensity for shooting comes with a drawback though. He will often fire off shots from range when it opens up regardless of the other options around him. This leads to wasted opportunities to setup teammates.

Off the ball, Titraoui has great awareness, he stays well positioned and understands the play developing around him. These defensive qualities make him great at covering a back four in settled defensive situations.

He rarely fails to track a runner, understanding what danger each player around him poses. His quick acceleration allows him to cover lots of possibilities.

In the clip above you can see Titraoui drop into the box to help his centre back with a runner. Once that danger is covered, the centre back steps out and Titraoui recognises the space left behind. This means that he’s in position to stop the cross at the front post.

Titraoui’s biggest deficiency is his physicality, as you would expect given his size. He’s still decently strong but bigger players do give him trouble on the defensive end.

He tries to make up for this with aggressiveness, which works okay generally but sometimes sees Titraoui caught out and bypassed very easily.

Given the all around quality that Titraoui possesses, it is no wonder why top teams would be interested in his services. I hope that this outlines the level of quality that Rangers should be striving for in their number 6.

It will be difficult to compete for these players but Rangers are in a position to do it. Players that are only good at some parts of the role, especially ones who aren’t great on the ball, will continue to fail at the club.

Nathan Saliba and Mory Gbane were two players I also liked the look of who are a bit more realistic, although not at the same level of quality of course. This is the trade off if you aren’t trying to compete in higher markets.

8/10 Profile

To round out the midfield group and facilitate the options for a 3 man midfield, I looked for an '“advanced 8” or number 10 type of player. Someone who can move between the lines and get involved in the attack.

This position is particularly difficult to play for Rangers given the way they are defended domestically. Space is at a premium and it takes a very good player to find it.

Players who show this level of ability are usually snapped up by top teams quickly. So for Rangers it is just as important to begin identifying these talents early as it is to be competing in bigger markets.

Our profile here is all about creativity. The usual filtering of players under 25 with at least 1000 minutes played last season will apply. To give us a player with time to develop in the Rangers midfield.

Then to find someone consistently moving the ball into dangerous positions, I looked for someone above average in their leagues and position for passes into the final third p90 and passes into the box p90.

Then I added in touches in the box p90 as well, to find a player that was getting into the box themselves as well as finding teammates there. Finally, I added a requirement of at least 5 goal contributions. The last bit is a bit less scientific but it is good to see some tangible output.

This was the position that has taken me the most time. I think I’ve watched around 30 players for at least 90 minutes while looking for a target to showcase. In the end I went for attacking potential over anything else, leading me to another quite ambitious target.

Valdemar Byskov

Valdemar Byskov is a 21 year old Danish midfielder playing for Midtjylland. Byskov has enjoyed a bit of a breakout season in the Superliga, with 7 goals and 3 assists in just over 1000 league minutes.

His smaller build affords him strong agility and acceleration, he glides with the ball at his feet and is difficult to dispossess. This is clear when driving towards the box and his technical qualities on both feet allow him to finish from all angles.

I did feel while watching him play that he lacked composure in moments where he was running onto shots in and around the box. Chances would fall to him and he would rush the shot too much, leading to a couple wild attempts:

Despite the brilliant goal numbers, I actually feel that Byskov’s strongest quality is his ability to create for his teammates. It seems like the game moves slower for him than everyone else and he can pick out passes extremely quickly.

Byskov also shows lovely technique on these short crosses around the corner of the box. Able to pick out specific teammates or dangerous areas consistently.

Outside of the attack, Byskov can also drop deeper to help escape pressure in the build up phase. His great first touch and close control can help him get out of tight situations and play forward.

Off the ball is where you find the major weakness, a mix of his smaller build and lack of experience means defensively he struggles in duels. He can be brushed off quite easily by bigger players.

When fighting for loose balls you see some of his lack of experience and physical technique. He falls into the trap a lot of young players face, they try to hold off opponents using their purely core muscle instead of their arms. This means that they don’t slow the momentum of their opponents and are knocked away easily. This issue was particularly noticeable in Europa League matches.

I did notice that Byskov was starting to show a bit more skill in physical duels towards the end of the season in the Superliga at least. Hopefully he can continue that growth.

I think you would be looking somewhere in the mid 7 figures for Byskov as well. There have been pretty much no serious links in the media for this player so it is difficult to know where Midtjylland really value him.

It could be higher given his age and contract length, he is tied down until 2030. If that is the case Rangers would likely be priced out and have to move on.

I think there could be an opportunity here though for the club to get in before he’s fully established himself as a first team player and get a really high potential, although quite raw, young talent for their midfield. Once again though, these targets are more specifically chosen to describe the sort of qualities Rangers would need from the position.

Lovro Zvonarek and Luka Stojkovic were the two closest to making the article if this one weren’t possible. Although both would also be expensive and they have their own issues.

I actually think this might be a position Rangers could cover by loaning a top talent from one of the top 5 leagues and look more long term in future windows as well.

That leaves us with the midfield set and just the attack to sort out. Hopefully even with my perhaps overly ambitious targets, this article outlines the level of quality I think is required in the midfield going forward.

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In a circular letter sent to all FIFA member associations, FIFA has outlined how the Club Benefits Programme will work this summer.

FIFA: “The new system and distribution model are intended to be more inclusive and solidarity-driven by increasing the number of clubs that benefit from the Programme.”

For the 2026 World Cup, clubs will receive less for player participation in the tournament than they would have in previous years - because qualifying matches are now included for the first time. This means the overall pot will be split between more clubs, as more players and matches are now covered. These numbers are broadly as expected, after an SPFL club spoke to me for an article about Lawrence Shankland signing for Rangers two weeks ago, stating that the $10,950 per player per day fee from the last World Cup would be much reduced.

Following UEFA’s lead

For the first time, FIFA’s programme now compensates clubs for players released for World Cup qualifiers. Previously, payments were linked only to the tournament itself.

In 2025, UEFA revealed that €2.79m flowed to Scottish clubs for the previous four-year cycle, from Celtic through to Dunfermline.
These were payments to cover the qualifiers and tournaments for the Euros & Nations League.

Both the UEFA equivalent and the FIFA programme have grown over the last 10-15 years, meaning more money filtering down to the clubs that actually pay the national team players. A bigger pot allows for qualifying matches to be included, ensuring more clubs are compensated for releasing their players for international football. Last year, 901 clubs benefited from the UEFA payment, sharing in a record €233m.

A larger FIFA pot

Like UEFA, it will be a record year of ‘club benefits’ payments for FIFA, with the 2026 pot increasing by nearly 70% to hit $355m. This is substantial growth from the $70m pot just 12 years ago.

However, as FIFA is now - for the first time - compensating clubs for releasing their players for qualifiers, this won’t actually result in an increase in tournament payments this summer.

The $355m pot will be split as follows:

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Tonight’s match and that Euro 2024 qualifier in Cyprus are the only two occasions Scotland have done this outside Scotland since 1950. Soon after finding the answer to how often Scotland have raced into a 3-0 lead in the first half hour - 23 times - my spreadsheets were open again, as Scotland made it four on the stroke of half-time.

That was the first time Scotland had raced into a 4-0 first-half lead since a 6-0 win against the Faroe Islands at Celtic Park in 2006. Tonight’s co-commentator, James McFadden, scored in that match, as did studio guest Kenny Miller. Tyler Fletcher came on for the last 10 minutes tonight, and his dad Darren was also among the goals 20 years ago.

A 4-1 win over Trinidad & Tobago in 2004 was the only other such occurrence this century. Across Scotland’s 853 matches, they have been 4-0 up in the first half on only 19 occasions.

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We can’t get carried away, though. Bolivia may have beaten Brazil and Colombia in World Cup qualifying, but those wins can largely be attributed to the high altitude of their home stadium. They traditionally play in La Paz, already around 3,600 metres above sea level, and in the 2026 qualifiers they moved some matches to El Alto, around 4,150 metres. The opposition have to deal with thinner air and faster fatigue, and Bolivia have been able to capitalise on that advantage for years. But their away form ensured that they are not going to the World Cup.

Bolivia finished seventh in qualifying, and a fair assessment may be that the South American side were distinctly average tonight: ranked 77th in the FIFA world rankings and playing in an end-of-season friendly. But Haiti are ranked 82nd in the same rankings, so tonight may have been a useful exercise in showing what Scotland can do when they play attacking football with two strikers.

This is, of course, an oversimplification, but Scotland have played two strikers in both friendly matches this week, and in both games they have scored four times. Back-to-back 4+ goal games have happened only 18 times in Scotland’s history, and this week was the first time for nearly 100 years.

If Scotland can make it three consecutive games of scoring four goals next week against Haiti, for what would be just the fifth time in their history - and the first time since 1929 - then a World Cup knockout tie will be all but secured. Hwfg.