Always click through to the website ScottishFootball.info for the most accurate version of any article. Any mistakes that are corrected after publication will only show on the website, rendering the version in your email inbox out of date.

This is the fifth edition of the weekly SPFL Stats Packs on ScottishFootball.info, and it covers only the Premiership this week given the other three leagues have completed the regular season, and are now into the playoffs. A post-match Stats Pack will be out at the end of the weekend following the conclusion of the games.

My favourite stat for each fixture will be highlighted with a blue line at the left hand side like this.

The aim is that these stats packs will constantly evolve and improve through subscriber feedback. Please leave any comments detailing what you like or dislike. Of course please also point out any errors, even if just a small typo - I can correct these easily on the website.

If you are not a paying subscriber yet, please consider taking out a 7-day free trial to continue reading, before deciding for yourself if you think £25 per year (or £3.50 per month) is value for money. If it’s not for you, then cancel at any point before the trial ends and won’t pay anything.

PREMIERSHIP

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A few weeks ago I explained how the title race could be decided by goal-difference or even a one off play-off match at a neutral venue at the end of May.

Due to the popularity of the article, coupled with how close the title race continues to be - I will update the ‘required results’ graphics each week. If you missed the article or want more detail on how it all works, then you can read it here:

Each week, I have been providing completely made-up results for the remaining fixtures in order to force several different outcomes, and displaying them in a graphic. After Hearts beat Rangers, this now removes the possibility of a playoff match between the two; as Hearts would now have the head to head advantage. Some other results, namely Rangers winning the league by any means, are now much more unlikely - but still possible.

In this week’s edition I have removed some outcomes, but included a new scenario “Still alive on the final day”; these are the results required to ensure all three teams can still win the league on the final day.

For simplicity I will record the winning margin in each match as being by 1 goal, unless more goals are required to force a certain scenario.

If Celtic or Rangers win the league, it will be on the final day. Only Hearts may have the opportunity to win the league in matchweek 37, depending on this weekend’s results.

THE SCENARIOS

1. All teams can still win the final on the final day

2. Hearts win the title on goal difference

3. Celtic win the title on goal difference

4. Rangers win the title on goals difference

There can longer be a playoff match between Celtic and Hearts or Rangers and Hearts because Hearts will always win any head-to-head. This is because they have two wins and one draw against Celtic, and three wins and one loss against Rangers.

Reminder: the determination of league position in the SPFL is by:

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It’s not just Hearts that are giving the big boys a bloody nose this season. Across Europe, 2025/26 is becoming a season of broken monopolies in many of the small to medium sized leagues. In fact, were Hearts to win the Premiership, it would only rank as the fourth rarest title in Europe this season, given three leagues have already produced first-time champions!

This article discusses the impact of UEFA prize money on competitiveness, the surprises in league winners this season, and the current seedings for the Champions League qualifying rounds.

I’ve teamed up with ‘Boot & Ball’ to promote their Scotland national team playing cards.

It is genuinely a fantastic product, with cards featuring King Kenny Dalglish, Andy Robertson, Scott McTominay and more.

Click here to order!

UEFA Prize Money Skews the Competitive Landscape

Several leagues around Europe - including ours - have either already been won, or are currently led, by ‘smaller’ clubs trying to end droughts that stretch back decades. Many fans will view this as refreshing, given streaks of the same team winning year after year have become a common part of the European landscape. Celtic are currently on 4-in-a-row league titles, after Rangers won one to interrupt their 9-in-a row. Other examples include Bayern Munich and Dinamo Zagreb who both managed 11-in-a-row, while Ludogorets did 14-in-a-row until this season.

One of the contributing factors for such streaks is that the prize money on offer from UEFA has grown year after year, and is often only attainable by only one or two clubs, especially in the smaller leagues. Those clubs can end up earning sums from UEFA which far exceed the total domestic prize pot for their entire league. This has meant that in many leagues, the teams that often qualify for the European tournaments regularly have become untouchable domestically. This becomes a difficult cycle to break because the big clubs, pumped full of UEFA cash, then win their league again, qualify for Europe again, and pull further away financially from those left in their wake.

We’ve seen that cycle in Scotland, to an extent too. Of course, Celtic already start with an in-built advantage over all others given the size of the fanbase that fills the 60,000 capacity stadium. So their financial success is not built solely on UEFA revenue. However in the years in which they reached the Champions League group stage, their financial advantage surged to levels previously not seen in Scotland.

The hoops have been able to earn more from UEFA in one season than the SPFL have to share between all 42 clubs. Then, as Champions Celtic then take the largest share of the SPFL pot (~£4.5m), and so their financial gulf grows year-on-year. I have previously argued that our distribution model is not conducive to a competitive league, and have proposed a change in the model that gives less to the top two clubs, and more to the clubs further down the league. If not an overhaul in the model that changes the percentages awarded to each place, then I’d like to see a “UEFA” tax, similar to what they have in the Netherlands.

Scotland could have a system where if a team earns a certain amount through UEFA competition, then they automatically give 5% of that back to the SPFL for redistribution to the clubs. When Celtic (or whoever the Champions are) earn £40m from Champions League, that figure alone dwarves the the entire SPFL distribution pot of £35m. I don’t believe that the Champions should then also take £4.5m of that pot. Either the Champions share of the SPFL pot should be reduced, or they should give a % of UEFA earnings back to the league for re-distribution, in my opinion.

While UEFA earnings have had an effect in Scotland, UEFA’s money can skew things even further in leagues with less revenue than Scotland - especially in countries where only one team is regularly qualifying for Europe. With Rangers, we’ve at least had two teams with a financial advantage over everyone else, rather than just one.

With the financial discrepancies witnessed in leagues across Europe, it increasingly becomes a more notable achievement for any smaller team to win their domestic league. Taking the title away from the top team - especially if they have such a pronounced financial advantage - seems completely unachievable for most clubs in Europe.

But not this year, apparently.

The Real Fairytales

The biggest ‘fairytale’ from all the ‘outsiders’ this year has undoubtedly come in Sweden. Mjällby had never won a major trophy in their history, and were in the Swedish third tier only seven years ago. In fact, they were one game away from dropping to the fourth tier of Swedish football before earning back-to-back promotions. The team is made up of mostly locally born players, and play their football in a village called Hällevik, which has less than 1,000 inhabitants.

Mjällby would have been 150/1+ to win the season behind the traditional bigger Swedish clubs such as Malmö, Hammarby, Djurgården, AIK and Häcken. However, in October 2025 Mjällby became champions of Sweden for the first time in their history, winning the tile with ease - as they eventually finished 13 points clear of Hammarby. Sweden’s top club, Malmö, finished all the way down in 6th, 26 points off the pace - despite winning eight championships in the previous 15 seasons.

Not far behind the Swedish story is the season that has unfolded in Switzerland, a league which in 2023 adopted “the Scottish model”, 12-team / 38 match split format that we’ve used here for 25 years.

Thun is a small Swiss town with a population that could fit into Hampden Park with a few thousand to spare. After five years in the second tier, FC Thun, returned to the top flight last season. In their first season back they were naturally rank outsiders for the league title, but Thun have now won the Swiss Super League for the first time in their history, with games to spare. They are already 11 points clear of St Gallen with three games left, with the big boys Basel and Young Boys down in 5th in 6th. Since the “Swiss Super League” was launched in 2003, the title had only been won by Basel, Young Boys or FC Zürich and so it’s quite incredible that the newly promoted club have added their name to that list.

Surprises, but not small teams

It’s important to note that not all of these ‘upsets’ I’ve highlighted have been caused by ‘small’ teams. In Bulgaria for example, Levski Sofia have won the Bulgarian title for the first time since 2009, ending Ludogorets dominance. Levski are not a ‘small team’ in that country though, they’ve won 27 titles and are the best supported side in Bulgaria, ahead of CSKA Sofia in second. The situation for Levski over the past two decades was one of severe financial difficulties, before being swept aside by Ludogorets, a side who have a much smaller fan base hailing from the small town of Razgrad. Ludogorets have had had substantial investment in order to build the monopoly they’ve enjoyed over the last 10-15 years.

Similarly AEK Athens lead by six points in Greece with three games to go, and they are one of the country’s biggest clubs. However they’ve only won two league titles since 1994. I’ve included Champions League finalists Arsenal on the list, who are clearly not an underdog given the hundreds of millions of pounds they’ve spent on their squad in recent seasons. However the Gunners lead the EPL with three games left, but also have no title in over 20 years. Therefore I’ve considered them ‘outsiders’ purely due to the dominance of Manchester City and Liverpool, and the length of time since they last won the league.

Sabah have done something similar in Azerbaijan, and will be the ‘newest’ club to win a title this season. Founded only in 2017, they have claimed their first league title, again with games to spare, as they are 13 points clear of Qarabag with four matches left. Qarabag had won 11 of the previous 12 championships, and so this is one of the clearest breaking of a monopolies in Europe this season.

The fourth ‘most rare’ title win in Europe would be in Scotland, if Hearts can hold on to the top spot they’ve held for most of the season. Three points ahead with three games to go, means the bookies now expect Hearts to win their first title since 1959/60. As we know, Celtic have won 13 of the last 14 Scottish Championships, but it’s the fact that nobody other than Rangers or Celtic have won any of the last 40 leagues that makes the Hearts story so astounding. “It’ll never happen in my lifetime” will be an answer given in pubs up and down the country when their mate asks them if their club will ever win the Scottish Premiership. For Hearts fans, they are close to making the seemingly impossible a reality, thanks in part to the partnership with Tony Bloom, which I wrote in detail about exactly one year ago.

Elsewhere in Europe, if the leagues ended today then in Austria we would see LASK win their first league title since 1964/65 and only their second ever, ahead of Red Bull Salzburg (8 of the last 10 titles) and Sturm Graz (won the last two titles).

In Denmark, AGF are two points clear of Midtjylland with two matches left, closing in on their first league title since 1985/86. In Romania Craiova are three points clear with three games left, chasing their first league title since 1990/91. They would do so ahead of 28 time winners FCSB and CFR Cluj, the team that’s won six of the last 15.

Another summer league saw a surprise champion, with Viking winning the Eliteserien for the first time in 1991, winning their ninth overall title by a solitary point. They won the Norwegian league one point ahead of Bodø/Glimt, who had won four of the previous five titles. Since then, we’ve seen Glimt go 3-0 up in their Champions League last 16 tie against Sporting Lisbon in March, before losing the return leg 5-0 in Portugal. Lastly the title will go down to the wire in Hungary, too. Győri ETO are one point clear of Ferencvárosi with one game left, looking for their first title since 2012/13 and fifth overall. Ferencváros have 36 titles and have won seven straight, eight of the last ten, makin it another huge upset if they lose their crown.

Impact on the Scottish Champions

What this spate of upsets means for the Scottish Champions, whoever that may be, is that potentially there might be a ‘weaker’ opponent waiting in the Champions League Playoff round.

Now, the term ‘weaker’ here is only true if you are judging the clubs on a historic or financial point of view, or judging a team on their experience of European competition. For example, LASK Linz may narrowly win the Austrian league ahead of two teams - RB Salzburg and Sturm Graz - who have more money and more experience of Champions League football.

However if LASK are the Austrian Champions - they are the best team in the country over a season, and so they are by definition not the weaker team. If Hearts win the Scottish league then of course historically and financially they are still weaker than Celtic. But would they be an easier game for the others in qualifiers, compared to Celtic? Maybe not.

So the same goes for the opponents that our Champions might face. An underdog winning the league may be the stronger team in their country over the course of a season, but they may have less European experience and more chance of seeing their squad being broken up in the summer through player sales.

The Champions League Seedings

The following graphic shows where the 40+ Champions across Europe will be seeded, as all leagues currently stand. This excludes the Champions of the top 10 leagues, as they automatically qualify for the Champions League. From this list, we can see the potential opponents that lie in wait for the Scottish Champions.

The graphic shows the four qualifying rounds, from QR1 to the playoff, and in which round the Champion of each country enters. The stage each country’s champion enters cannot change (i.e. Scotland’s champion will enter in the playoff round) - only the club name may change between now and the end of the season, and thus the seeding status (i.e. Hearts would be an unseeded team whereas Celtic would be seeded).

Round entered in is based on country coefficient, while seeded status within each round is based on club coefficient.

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The Premiership title pendulum swung in the favour of Heart of Midlothian last night, as we move into the final three match weeks in the top tier. For the next three divisions, although the regular season has now finished, some of the most exciting stories of the season are still to be written.

The first leg of the playoffs to secure status in the Premiership, Championship and League One start tonight, while the League Two playoff between Edinburgh City and the Highland League winners, Brora Rangers, plays its first leg on Saturday.

This brief article will discuss each of the fixtures in turn, before looking at how teams have fared in the playoffs since their introduction in 20xx, and how the gate money is shared - as this differs between divisions.

The minimum prize money for each team in the SPFL outside the Premiership can be viewed in yesterday’s prize money article:

PREMIERSHIP PLAY-OFFS

1st leg: Dunfermline Vs Arbroath (East End Park, Tuesday 19:45)
2nd leg: Arbroath Vs Dunfermline (Gayfield Park, Friday 19:30)

Both legs are live on BBC Scotland.

Arbroath finished 3rd in the Championship, one point above 4th-placed Dunfermline. Their league head-to-head was certainly exciting; Arbroath lost 5-0 at home in September, only to win the next two - 2-1 at East End Park in December and 4-2 at Gayfield in February. On Friday night the teams played out a much less eventful 0-0 draw at East End Park in the final match of the season.

Partick Thistle who finished 2nd in the Championship, await the winners in the two legged Semi-Finals (Tues 12th at the winners place & Fri 15th May at Firhill).

The two legged final will then be played against the Premiership’s 11th-placed side, which is currently St. Mirren - however they are only 1 point behind Kilmarnock. Both legs of the final are live on Sky Sports.

Two dates for the final have been published
1.) If it involves Dunfermline: Tuesday May 26th and Friday May 29th, as Dunfermline have the Scottish Cup Final Vs Celtic on Saturday 23rd.

2.) If Dunfermline don’t reach the final: Thursday 21st and Monday 25th May

I’ve teamed up with ‘Boot & Ball’ to promote their Scotland national team playing cards.

It is genuinely a fantastic product, with cards featuring King Kenny Dalglish, Andy Robertson, Scott McTominay and more.

Click here to order!

CHAMPIONSHIP PLAY-OFFS

1st leg: Alloa Athletic Vs Airdrieonians (Recreation Park, Tuesday 19:45)
2nd leg: Airdrieonians Vs Alloa Athletic (Excelsior Stadium, Saturday 15:00)

Both legs are live on Premier Sports PPV at £9.99 per match.

The format for the lower league playoffs differ from the Premiership playoffs in that there is no Quarter-Finals, and the team second bottom in the Championship enters at the Semi-Final stage rather than the Final. Airdrieonians finished 9th in the Championship after failing to beat Morton on Friday; while Alloa were 4th in League One. There were therefore no regular-season league meetings because they were in different divisions.

1st leg: Queen of the South Vs Stenhousemuir (Palmerston, Tues 19:45)
2nd leg: Stenhousemuir Vs Queen of the South (Ochilview, Sat 15:00)

Both legs are live on Premier Sports PPV at £9.99 per match.

Stenhousemuir finished 2nd in League One, Queen of the South 3rd. Stenhousemuir were unbeaten in the four league meetings: two 1-1 draws at Palmerston, a 0-0 at Ochilview and a 2-0 home win in January.

The winners of these two ties meet in the two-legged final, with the lowest-ranked team at home in 1st leg on Wednesday 13th May at 19:45, before the return leg at the highest-ranked team on Saturday 16th May at 17:30.

Both legs of the final are live on BBC Alba.

LEAGUE ONE PLAY-OFFS

1st leg: Forfar Vs Hamilton (Station Park, Tuesday 19:45)
2nd leg: Hamilton Vs Forfar (Broadwood Stadium, Saturday 15:00)

Both legs are live on Premier Sports PPV at £9.99 per match.

The League One Play-Offs have the same format as the Championship play-offs and so the team second bottom in League One enters here. That was Hamilton, however they suffered a 21 point deduction. Without the points deduction they were the 3rd best team in the division, which is slightly harsh for the League One sides looking to gain promotion - playing one of the strongest sides in the division. Forfar finished 4th in League Two, and so again there was no league meetings this season.

1st leg: Clyde Vs The Spartans (New Douglas Park, Tuesday 19:45)
2nd leg: The Spartans Vs Clyde (Ainslie Park, Saturday 15:00)

Both legs are live on Premier Sports PPV at £9.99 per match.

The Spartans finished 2nd in League Two; Clyde finished 3rd. Spartans had the better regular season record, after winning 3-1 away and 2-1 at home. Clyde won once at home, 2-1, and there was a 1-1 draw at Spartans.

The winners will meet in the two legged final on Tuesday 12th and Friday 15th May, with both legs legs live on BBC ALBA, with kick offs at 19:45.

LEAGUE TWO PYRAMID PLAY-OFF

1st leg: Brora Rangers Vs Edinburgh City (Dudgeon Park, Sat 9th 15:00)
2nd leg: Edinburgh City Vs Brora Rangers (Meadowbank Sat 16th 15:00)

Both legs are live on Premier Sports PPV at £9.99 per match

Edinburgh City finished 10th in League Two, after a 15 point deduction. Without the points deduction they’d have finished eighth on 39 points, well clear of the playoff spot. Brora Rangers won the Highland League and received a bye to the final after Lowland League champions Linlithgow Rose were ruled ineligible on licensing grounds. There were again therefore no regular-season meetings.

GATE RECEIPTS

The SPFL rules split the money differently depending on the competition.

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Always click through to the website ScottishFootball.info for the most accurate version of any article. Any mistakes that are corrected after publication will only show on the website, rendering the version in your email inbox out of date.

This is the weekly SPFL post-match Stats Packs on ScottishFootball.info, covering all four divisions. This follows the pre-match Stats Pack which is released by the Friday before the weekend’s games.

My favourite stat for each fixture will be highlighted with a blue line at the left hand side like this.

Please leave any feedback detailing what you like or dislike and of course please also point out any errors. Even if just a small typo - I can correct these easily on the website.

If you are not a paying subscriber yet, please consider taking out a 7-day free trial to continue reading, before deciding for yourself if you think £25 per year (or £3.50 per month) is value for money. If it’s not for you, then cancel at any point before the trial ends and won’t pay anything.

PREMIERSHIP

Livingston 0-0 Aberdeen

• Aberdeen completed the league season unbeaten against Livingston, with two wins, two draws and a 9-4 aggregate score across the four meetings.

• Livingston have only ever beaten Aberdeen in three of their 19 home league meetings; a 2-0 win in April 2004 and 2-1 victories in both February and November 2022.

• Aberdeen have only won one (D3 & L1) from their last 5 league visits to Livingston.

• Livingston are on a nine match winless run against Aberdeen (L5 & 4 D) since beating them 2-1 victory in November 2022.

This was Livingston’s seventh 2-2 draw in the Premiership this season; the most in the division since Hibs in 2023-24, with eight.

• Livingston moved on to 14 league draws this season, the most in the top-flight since Dundee with 15 in 2015-16.

• Livingston have conceded the most goals in the league this season (68).

• Aberdeen are without an away league win in 12 matches (D2 & L10) since beating Dundee 3-1 on 6 December

Dundee 1-0 St Mirren

• Dundee got the the better of St. Mirren this season, with two wins, one draw and one defeat from the four league meetings and a 4-2 aggregate score.

Dundee won both of their home league meetings with St. Mirren this season, 3-1 in November and 1-0 here; they had not done that since 2005-06 (when they beat Dundee 3-2 & 4-0 at Dens).

• Dundee ended a five-match winless league run and kept their first clean sheet in 10 league matches.

• St Mirren have won only twice in the league at Dens Park since the start of the 2014/15 season, both times in 2024.

• St. Mirren have now failed to score in 17 Premiership matches this season, the highest total in the division.

St Mirren have scored only 27 league goals, the fewest in the division and on track for their lowest top-flight total in a full season since 26 in 2007/08. They’ve only failed to reach 30 goals in a full top flight season four times in their history.

Falkirk 1-0 Motherwell

• Falkirk finished unbeaten against Motherwell in this season’s league meetings, winning three and drawing one with a 6-3 aggregate score.

This is the first time Falkirk have beaten Motherwell three times in a league season

• Falkirk have 49 points, one behind their best in a post-war season which was 50 points in 2006/07.

• Falkirk’s top-six finish is their first in any post-split season, having previously never finished above seventh achieved in 2006/07 and 2007/08.

• None of Falkirk’s last ten home league matches have been drawn (W5 & L5).

Kilmarnock 3-0 Dundee United

• Kilmarnock finished unbeaten against Dundee United in this season’s league meetings, with two wins, two draws and a 7-2 aggregate score.

Kilmarnock are on an 11 match unbeaten run against Dundee United in all competitions (7 wins & 4 draws) since losing 4-0 nearly 4 years ago (November 2022).

• Dundee United have not won a league match at Rugby Park since a 4-2 victory in May 2016, They are winless in their nine league visits since (D4 & L5).

• This is the first time Kilmarnock have gone unbeaten through a top-flight league season against Dundee United since 2001-02, when they won three and drew one.

• Since Neil McCann took over, Killie have only lost one match at home (5 wins & 1 draw). Even in the loss (3-2 Vs Celtic) they were 2-0 up at half time. Before he took over they had lost 6 out of the previous 7, with 1 draw.

Hibernian 1-2 Celtic

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The result means that for the first time this season, Hearts are the only side with the title ‘in their own hands’; if they win their three remaining matches - or even win two and draw the last - then they will be confirmed as Champions.

For Rangers, the damaging defeat means they are all but out of the title race, and are now fighting to avoid third place.

This article looks at some of the tightest title races in the history of Scottish football before explaining the European entry points for each club, as it stands.

I’ve teamed up with ‘Boot & Ball’ to promote their Scotland national team playing cards.

The cards are superb, with every one featuring a Scotland reference of some description.

Click here to order!

THE CLOSEST TITLE RACES IN HISTORY

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East Kilbride have completed back-to-back promotions after clinching the League Two title on Saturday, beating Clyde 5-0 at K-Park to confirm their place in League One next season.

It is another huge step forward for the semi-pro club which was only formed in 2010. Mick Kennedy’s side were Lowland League champions last season before reaching the SPFL for the first time through the pyramid play-off. They beat Bonnyrigg Rose 3-1 on aggregate in May 2025, drawing 0-0 in the second leg after a 3-1 first-leg win.

I’ve teamed up with ‘Boot & Ball’ to promote their Scotland national team playing cards.

The cards are superb, with every one featuring a Scotland reference of some description.

Click here to order!

Across Scottish football history, The Kilby become the 15th back-to-back promotion that involves at least reaching the third tier of Scottish football. Most of these promotions (and the relegations shown later) have been achieved this century, owing to the fact the fourth tier wasn’t created in Scotland until 1994/95. Even the third tier wasn’t a regular until league reconstruction in 1975 - the year in which 8 sides were relegated from the top flight!

COMEBACK TITLE WINS

East Kilbride’s title also came with a sizeable mid-season recovery, having trailed The Spartans by eight points on 27th January, following Spartans’ 6-0 win at K-Park. E.K would win 12 of their final 15 matches (including 7-in-a-row), while Spartans only won a further six games. While a remarkable comeback, it wouldn’t make the top 10 for overall comebacks across all divisions in Scottish football history, as these graphics will now show.

The following four graphics show the top 10 greatest comebacks by league champions in the history of Scottish football. Four different graphics are used because it is hard to compare like-for-like due to games in hand and points being worth more after 1994.

The first graphic is using “same matchday method”. This is based on both teams having played same number of games, to discount when teams had big leads due to games in hand.

Secondly, the “calendar date method” - this is more accurate as it is the actual table as it looked on each date, but includes any game(s) in hand.

Lastly, both graphics then have the league tables from before 1994 are adjusted to 3 points for a win (rather than 2), to show how impressive these early years comebacks really were.

I therefore would class the calendar date method, adjusted for 3 points to a win to be the most accurate representation of the title-winning comebacks.

SAME MATCHDAY COMEBACK WINS

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Always click through to the website ScottishFootball.info for the most accurate version of any article. Any mistakes that are corrected after publication will only show on the website, rendering the version in your email inbox out of date.

This is the fourth edition of the weekly SPFL Stats Packs on ScottishFootball.info, and it covers all four divisions. A post-match Stats Pack will be out at the end of the weekend following the conclusion of the games.

My favourite stat for each fixture will be highlighted with a blue line at the left hand side like this.

The aim is that these stats packs will constantly evolve and improve through subscriber feedback. Please leave any comments detailing what you like or dislike. Of course please also point out any errors, even if just a small typo - I can correct these easily on the website.

If you are not a paying subscriber yet, please consider taking out a 7-day free trial to continue reading, before deciding for yourself if you think £25 per year (or £3.50 per month) is value for money. If it’s not for you, then cancel at any point before the trial ends and won’t pay anything.

PREMIERSHIP

Livingston vs Aberdeen (The Set Fare Arena, Friday 19:45)

All-time league record: Aberdeen wins 22, draws 11, Livingston wins 8
At Livingston: Aberdeen wins 8, draws 7, Livingston wins 3
Top scorer in this fixture this century: Bojan Miovski - 5 goals

This fixture specifically:

• Aberdeen are unbeaten in this season’s three league meetings with Livingston (W2 D1 L0), with a 7-2 aggregate score; but that includes a 6-2 win at Pittodrie in January.

Livingston have only ever beaten Aberdeen in three of their 18 home league meetings - a 2-0 win in April 2004 and 2-1 victories in both February and November 2022.

• Aberdeen have only won one (D2 & L1) from their last four league visits to Livingston’s home ground; and the 1-0 win in November 2025 was their first there since August 2021.

• Aberdeen have won 6 of the last 10 league meetings between these sides, with 3 draws and 1 defeat.

• Livingston are on an eight match winless run against Aberdeen (L5 & 3 D) since beating them 2-1 victory in November 2022.

League-wide form:

• Livingston ended their 31-match winless run last weekend with a 2-0 victory at St Mirren - the longest continuous winless run in top-tier Scottish football history (Arbroath had a 31-match streak across separate top flight campaigns years apart)

  • The win was their first in the league since the 3-1 win over Falkirk on the second matchday of the season, on 9 August 2025.

• Livingston have just 19 points after 34 matches, on track for their lowest top-flight total since 18 in 2005/06.

• Livingston have won only one of their 18 away league matches this season (D6 & L11).

• Livingston have conceded 66 goals this season; joint-most in the division alongside Kilmarnock.

• Aberdeen have 36 points after 34 matches - their lowest tally at this stage of a top-flight season since 1999/00, when they finished on 33.

• Aberdeen are without an away league win in 11 matches (D1 & L10) since beating Dundee 3-1 on 6 December

  • All four of Aberdeen’s away wins this season came at bottom six sides between mid-October and early December (St. Mirren, Killie, Livi, Dundee).

  • This is only the 4th season this century that Aberdeen failed to win an away game against a top-six side, and all four came in the last five seasons (also in 21/22, 22/23, 24/25)

• Aberdeen have failed to score in 15 league matches, behind only St Mirren with 16.

Dundee vs St Mirren (Dens Park, Saturday 15:00)

All-time league record: Dundee wins 90, draws 46, St Mirren wins 85
At Dens Park: Dundee wins 59, draws 21, St Mirren wins 29
Top scorer in this fixture this century: Simon Murray, Toyosi Olusanya, Kenny McLean and Mikael Mandron - 4 goals each

This fixture specifically:

• It’s 1 win each and a draw from the previous 3 meetings this season, with a 3-2 aggregate score for Dundee

• St Mirren have lost their last two league visits to Dens Park, after winning the previous one 3-1 on 4 May 2024.

St Mirren have won only twice in the league at Dens Park since the start of the 2014/15 season, both times in 2024.

• Dundee have won the previous two top-flight meetings at Dens Park - which is the same number of wins as the previous 10 encounters (2 Dundee Wins, 3 Draws, 5 St. Mirren wins).

League-wide form:

• St Mirren have failed to score in 16 league matches, the most in the Premiership.

St Mirren have scored only 27 league goals, the fewest in the division and on track for their lowest top-flight total in a full season since 26 in 2007/08. They’ve only failed to reach 30 goals in a full top flight season four times in their history.

• St Mirren have won just two of their 17 away league matches this season (D4 & L11) - conceding 32 goals on the road.

• Dundee are winless in five league matches (D2 & L3), their longest such run since a five-game winless run that ended in February.

• Dundee have failed to score in 15 league matches this season, behind only St. Mirren (16).

• Dundee have gone 10 league matches without a clean sheet.

Falkirk vs Motherwell (Falkirk Stadium, Saturday 15:00)

All-time league record: Motherwell wins 75, draws 37, Falkirk wins 54
At Falkirk: Falkirk wins 34, draws 21, Motherwell wins 28
Top scorer in this fixture this century: Scott McDonald - 7 goals

This fixture specifically:

• Falkirk are unbeaten against Motherwell this season with a 5-3 aggregate score (W2 & D1) including a 3-2 win at Fir Park on 4 April.

• In fact, Motherwell haven’t beaten Falkirk in the league since a 1-0 win in October 2009 (2 losses & 3 draws since)

• If Falkirk avoid defeat on Saturday, they will complete a top-flight league season unbeaten against Motherwell for the first time since 2007/08.

If Motherwell win - then also beat Hearts - would mean the Well have beaten every team in the division for only the 7th time in their history. They’d join Rangers and Hearts in achieving the feat this season.

League-wide form:

Motherwell have kept the most clean sheets in the league (17), equalling their all-time top-flight club record set in 1931/32 and matched in 1993/94.

• Motherwell have conceded only 31 goals, the second-fewest in the division behind Hearts (29), but have won only one of their last five league matches (W1 D1 L3), conceding 9

• Falkirk have 46 points - already the third highest top-flight post-war points. Their best in a post-war season is 50 points from 2006/07.

• Falkirk’s top-six finish is their first in any post-split season, having previously never finished above seventh achieved in 2006/07 and 2007/08.

• None of Falkirk’s last nine home league matches have been drawn (W4 & L5).

• Falkirk have gone 8 league matches without a clean sheet, and have also scored in each of their last 6 league matches.

Kilmarnock vs Dundee United (Rugby Park, Saturday 15:00)

All-time league record: Killie wins 58, draws 46, Dundee Utd wins 52
At Rugby Park: Kilmarnock wins 38, draws 19, Dundee United wins 22
Top scorer in this fixture this century: Kris Boyd - 13 goals

This fixture specifically:

• Kilmarnock are unbeaten in this season’s three league meetings with Dundee United (W1 & D2) with a 4-2 aggregate score.

Kilmarnock are on a ten match unbeaten run against Dundee United in all competitions (6 wins & 4 draws) since losing 4-0 nearly 4 years ago (November 2022).

• Dundee United have not won a league match at Rugby Park since a 4-2 victory in May 2016, They are winless in their eight league visits since (D4 & L4).

League-wide form:

• Nobody has conceded more than Kilmarnock’s 66 goals - already two more than their tally for the entire 2024/25 season (64). Only in 2003/04 did they concede more in the last 30 years - 74 goals.

• Kilmarnock have won only one of their 17 away league matches this season (D6 & L10), the fewest at this stage in the last 30 years.

• However since Neil McCann took over, Killie have only lost one match at home (4 wins & 1 draw). Before he took over they had lost 6 out of the previous 7, with 1 draw.

• Dundee United have 13 league draws this season, the most in the Premiership.

• Kilmarnock have lost 18 league matches, behind only Livingston (19).

Hibernian vs Celtic (Easter Road Stadium, Sunday 12:00)

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My data on the shortlisted nominees for these awards only goes back to 2006, however I have the full list of winners since 1977/78.

For this article, I’ve teamed up with ‘Boot & Ball’ to promote their Scotland national team playing cards.

It is genuinely a fantastic product, with cards featuring King Kenny Dalglish, Andy Robertson, Scott McTominay and more.

These will make a perfect addition to the sporrans, especially for the certain 8-hour upcoming flight for many of us in June! I will share videos of the deck of cards when my pack arrives later this week!

Click here to order!

To have four nominees shortlisted and none of them to come from Rangers or Celtic is extremely rare. Thirteen years ago was the only time it’s happened since 2006, when Michael Higdon (Motherwell), Leigh Griffiths (Hibs), Niall McGinn (Aberdeen), Andrew Shinnie (ICT) were the final four in 2013.

Michael Higdon was the winner, a man who holds the distinction of not only being the only player from Motherwell F.C to ever win the award, but also the only player to be arrested after the awards ceremony for alleged assault in the Corinthian nightclub in Glasgow. After the Sunday night awards in May 2013, Higdon was due to meet journalists for a media conference at 08:30am on the Monday morning. The meeting was cancelled however, due to Higdon being remanded in the cells until 9am. The Fear.

THE FOUR NOMINEES IN 2026

Hearts strike partnership Claudio Braga and Lawrence Shankland are joined by Motherwell sensations Elijah Just and Tawanda Maswanhise. While Motherwell have had Kevin van Veen in 2023, and Hearts have had Shankland himself in 2024 as recent nominees, it’s the first time that either Hearts or Motherwell have supplied two nominees in a season.

Lawrence Shankland is the standout figure in the final four in terms of previous recognitions from the PFA. He won this very award in 2023-24, becoming the tenth non-Old Firm winner and the first since the aforementioned Higdon.

Shankland remains the only Hearts player to ever win the award.

In being nominated for the top prize for a second time, he instantly becomes one of the most nominated players in the modern era. His total of two nominations for Player of the Year can be bettered only by Callum McGregor and Steven Davis, who both have four nominations, and Kris Boyd, who has three.

Scottish players have received more nominations than any other nationality (31 nominations since 2006) and Scots have taken the award 25 times overall since 1977, so Shankland is in good company there

Shankland’s teammate and the early favourite for the award, Claudio Braga, is the first Portuguese player to be shortlisted since Pedro Mendes in 2008-09. As my data only goes back to 2006, I can’t be sure they are the only two Portuguese players to ever make the shortlist. I’d suspect the top scorer in the 1996/97 season who managed 33 goals in all competitions must have been in with a shout….

Jorge Cadete, who in 2014 was living on state benefits with his parents, was part of the 1996/97 Celtic team that finished five points adrift of a Rangers side that won their ninth consecutive title. Celtic had a sublimely talented trio in the form of Cadete, Pierre Van Hooijdonk, and Paolo di Canio - and it was the infamous Italian who took the PFA award that year. Painfully for Celtic fans, all three of them forced moves from the club that year, however it resulted in the club replacing them with Harald Brattbakk, Paul Lambert, Craig Burley and….Henrik Larsson.

Back to the present day and the two Motherwell nominees are the first representatives from their respective countries to make the shortlist; Elijah Just of New Zealand and Tawanda Maswanhise from Zimbabwe. For the league’s top scorer Maswanhise, he’s one of only three Zimbabweans to play in Scotland this century after Kundai Benyu (Celtic, 2018-2019) and Munashe Garananga (Hibs, current).

Although New Zealanders are more common in the SPFL than Zimbabweans, Just is still only one of 22 kiwis to play in Scotland this century, alongside players such as Alex Greive (St Mirren & Dundee United), Chris Killen (Celtic), George Stanger (Hamilton, Ayr & Kilmarnock) and Rory Fallon (Aberdeen and St. Johnstone).

Whoever wins the award on Sunday will take the acclaim after a fantastic season, and all four would make a deserving winner. More importantly than that, obviously, is what that means for the stats. The winner will move their club up to the joint-fourth most successful in the history of the PFA Player’ of the Year awards, behind only Aberdeen (4), Rangers (11) and Celtic (27).

TEAM OF THE YEAR

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A few weeks ago I explained how the title race could be decided by a one off play-off match at a neutral venue at the end of May. The article received a lot of positive feedback, and it also prompted some copy-cat articles in the mainstream media.

Due to the popularity of the article, coupled with how close the title race continues to be - I will update the ‘required results’ graphics each week, after the last match of that round has been played. If you missed the article or want more detail on how it all works, then you can read it here

Each week, I will provide completely made-up results for the remaining fixtures in order to force five different outcomes. I will produce a graphic for each outcome until that outcome becomes mathematically impossible. For simplicity I will record the winning margin in each match as being by 1 goal, unless more goals are required to force a certain scenario.

For this article, I’ve teamed up with ‘Boot & Ball’ to promote their Scotland national team playing cards.

It is genuinely a fantastic product, with cards featuring King Kenny Dalglish, Andy Robertson, Scott McTominay and more.

These will make a perfect addition to the sporrans, especially for a certain 8-hour upcoming flight many of us have in June! I will share videos of the deck of cards when my pack arrives later this week.

Click here to order!

THE SCENARIOS

1. Hearts win the title on goal difference

2. Rangers win the title on goal difference

3. Celtic win the title on goals scored

4. Rangers and Hearts must play a one-off match

5. Rangers and Celtic must play a one-off match

There cannot be a playoff match between Celtic and Hearts, because Hearts will always win the head-to-head between the two, as they have two wins and one draw against Celtic.

Reminder: the determination of league position in the SPFL is by:

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Always click through to the website ScottishFootball.info for the most accurate version of any article. Any mistakes that are corrected after publication will only show on the website, rendering the version in your email inbox out of date.

This is the third edition of the weekly SPFL post-match Stats Packs on ScottishFootball.info, and it covers all four divisions. This follows the pre-match Stats Pack which is released on the Friday before the weekend’s games.

My favourite stat for each fixture will be highlighted with a blue line at the left hand side like this.

Please leave any feedback detailing what you like or dislike and of course please also point out any errors. Even if just a small typo - I can correct these easily on the website.

If you are not a paying subscriber yet, please consider taking out a 7-day free trial to continue reading, before deciding for yourself if you think £25 per year (or £3.50 per month) is value for money. If it’s not for you, then cancel at any point before the trial ends and won’t pay anything.

PREMIERSHIP

Aberdeen 1-0 Kilmarnock

Scorers: A. Aremu (1’)

• None of Aberdeen and Kilmarnock’s past 16 league meetings have been drawn, with Aberdeen winning 10 and Kilmarnock winning 6 since a 2-2 draw on 4 March 2020.

• Aberdeen have won 9 of their past 10 Scottish Premiership home games against Kilmarnock, losing the other 1-0 in December 2023.

• Kilmarnock have won only 1 of their 17 away league matches this season.

• The last time an Aberdeen player scored in the 1st minute of a Premiership home match was Duk against Kilmarnock in April 2023, and in any match was Connor Barron away to St Mirren in March 2024.

  • Since 2000, The Dons have scored 7 league goals inside the 1st minute, conceding 8.

• The last time Kilmarnock conceded in the 1st minute of a Premiership match was at home to Ross County in December 2024.

  • Since 2000, Kilmarnock have scored 6 goals inside the 1st minute of a league match, conceding 8. Kris Boyd is responsible for 3 of Kilmarnock’s six 1st minute goals this century.

Kilmarnock have now conceded in the opening minute in three consecutive away matches. They are the only team I have on record of doing this in Scottish football (data of over 25,000 goals going back to the 1990s).

• The closest I can find to this is four occurrences of a team conceding within the first 5 minutes in three consecutive away matches, with St. Mirren conceding in the opening 3 minutes of 3 consecutive away matches back in 2010.

• In terms of scoring inside the opening five minutes in either three consecutive home or three consecutive away matches, Celtic were the most recent to do it - if we count streaks which run across two seasons.

• Elgin City were the last team to do it within the same season, scoring within the opening five minutes in three consecutive away games in 2016.

• As shown above, Kilmarnock’s record of conceding in the first minute in three consecutive away games can’t be beaten by any team at least this century, if not beyond.

• When we look at three actual consecutive games (i.e. venue doesn’t matter, just 3 or more games in a row) then the streak can be beaten, for goals in the opening five matches - as some teams have managed four consecutive matches conceding an early goal:

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Always click through to the website ScottishFootball.info for the most accurate version of any article. Any mistakes that are corrected after publication will only show on the website, rendering the version in your email inbox out of date.

This is the third edition of the weekly SPFL Stats Packs on ScottishFootball.info, and it covers all four divisions. A post-match Stats Pack then comes out at the end of the weekend following the conclusion of the games.

My favourite stat for each fixture will be highlighted with a blue line at the left hand side like this.

The aim is that these stats packs will constantly evolve and improve through subscriber feedback. Please leave any comments detailing what you like or dislike. Of course please also point out any errors, even if just a small typo - I can correct these easily on the website.

If you are not a paying subscriber yet, please consider taking out a 7-day free trial to continue reading, before deciding for yourself if you think £25 per year (or £3.50 per month) is value for money. If it’s not for you, then cancel at any point before the trial ends and won’t pay anything.

PREMIERSHIP

Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock (Pittodrie Stadium, Saturday 15:00)

All-time league record: Aberdeen wins 115, draws 39, Kilmarnock wins 79
At Pittodrie Stadium: Aberdeen wins 69, draws 23, Kilmarnock wins 24
Top scorer in this fixture this century: Kris Boyd - 10 goals

This fixture specifically:

• Aberdeen are W2 D0 L1 in this season’s league meetings with Kilmarnock, with a 3-4 aggregate score.

None of Aberdeen and Kilmarnock’s past 15 league meetings have been drawn, with Aberdeen winning 9 and Kilmarnock winning 6 since a 2-2 draw on 4 March 2020.

• Aberdeen have won eight of their past nine Scottish Premiership home games against Kilmarnock, losing the other 1-0 in December 2023.

League-wide form:

• Kevin Nisbet has scored in his past five home games in the Premiership (eight goals), the first player to do so for Aberdeen since Adam Rooney in December 2015.

• No player in the division has scored in six consecutive home matches since Kevin van Veen in May 2023 (when he scored in eleven consecutive matches in total at the end of the season).

• Kilmarnock have won only 1 of their 16 away league matches this season.

• Aberdeen have the joint-most matches without scoring in the Premiership this season (15), level with St. Mirren.

• Aberdeen have already lost 18 matches this season (only Livingston have lost more, with 19); the most league losses the Dons have suffered in 15 years (22 losses in 2010/11).

St. Mirren vs Livingston (The SMISA Stadium, Saturday 15:00)

All-time league record: St. Mirren wins 15, draws 12, Livingston wins 8
At St. Mirren: St. Mirren wins 7, draws 7, Livingston wins 3
Top scorer in this fixture this century: Liam Buchanan - 4 goals

This fixture specifically:

• St. Mirren have lost only 1 of the last 15 league meetings with Livingston (W6, D8, L1).

St. Mirren have won 4 of their past 5 league home games against Livingston, drawing the other 0-0 in May 2022.

• St. Mirren are W1 D2 L0 in this season’s league meetings with Livingston, with a 3-2 aggregate score.

• Livingston’s last win away to St. Mirren was on 25 August 2018; they are winless in 10 visits since.

League-wide form:

• Livingston are on a record top flight winless run of 31 league matches; their last league win was in the second match the season against Falkirk on 9th August 2025.

  

• Livingston have conceded at least twice in their last 3 league matches.

• Livingston have won 0 of their 17 away league matches this season.

• Livingston have conceded the most goals in the Premiership this season (66).

Livingston could be relegated with four matches still to play; the earliest a side has been relegated since Partick Thistle were relegated after matchday 34 in 2004 - excluding clubs with points deductions

• A St. Mirren win means the Buddies are directly responsible for the three earliest relegations in the top flight:

  • Hearts (5th April 2014) were relegated after matchday 33 thanks to a 3-2 St. Mirren win over Motherwell (Hearts suffered a -15 points deduction).

  • Gretna (29th March 2008) were relegated after matchday 31 thanks to a 2-0 St. Mirren win over Gretna (Gretna suffered a -10 points deduction).

• Livingston themselves have been relegated after matchday 35 (Vs Motherwell in 2024) and after matchday 36 (Vs Inverness C.T in 2006) - but never as early as matchday 34.

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Celtic vs Falkirk (Celtic Park, Saturday 17:30)

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With last nights 0-2 victory away to Scottish Cup Finalists Dunfermline, St. Johnstone have been confirmed as Scottish Championship Winners. The Saints will be rewarded with automatic promotion to the Scottish Premiership, immediately bouncing back following the disappointment of relegation last May.

St. Johnstone have secured the league title with 71 points, with two games remaining. Even if the Saints were to lose to both Raith Rovers at home and Ayr United away, 71 points would be joint 17th out of 29 for completed 36-game second-tier seasons, since the 10-team format began in 1994/95.

If St Johnstone win their last two matches to move to 77 points, that would rank 8th for most points in the division since 1995 and would be the most since Rangers’ 81 point Championship winning campaign in 2015/16.

Despite recording 11 draws this season, St. Johnstone have been tough to beat, and have suffered only 3 defeats all season (Arbroath 3-1 St Johnstone, Partick Thistle 2-1 St Johnstone and St Johnstone 0-1 Dunfermline). The fewest defeats St Johnstone have suffered in a league season is 4, achieved in 1923/24 and 1996/97.

If the Saints lose one of the two remaining matches, ending the season with four defeats would be the joint 5th fewest since 1994/95. Avoiding defeat in both matches to end the season with just three losses would not only be a new St Johnstone club record but the joint 2nd-fewest in that tier since 1995, behind only Ross County in 2011/12 (1 defeat, a 5-1 loss away to Hamilton).

BOUNCE BACK PROMOTIONS

In the history of Scottish football, 62 relegated top-flight sides have come straight back up the very next season, and 41 of those did it as Champions. For St Johnstone specifically, the only previous immediate bounce-back was in 1962/63.

Since the turn of the century, St. Johnstone are the 11th side to earn immediate promotion back to the top flight, and they are the seventh side to do so since Ross County in 2018/19.

ST JOHNSTONE TITLE WINS

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Youssef Chermiti was the player that Rangers could expect to receive the largest bids for, and so it is probably no surprise that Chermiti (21) tops the list of the ‘best’ u23 players in the Scottish Premiership, while Nygren (24) misses out due to his age.

The second article on that study listed the top 10 players in terms of expected fair price - a list that was made up entirely of Celtic and Rangers players. Mikey Moore, Jayden Meghoma and Nasser Djiga all featured in the top 10, with at least some of their fair value driven by the fact they are youngsters on loan from the English Premier League.

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The independent trade union for all professional footballers in the country, PFA Scotland, are this week set to release their team of the year for 2026.

Last season, 7 of the 11 players were from the Champions, Celtic. This season, we won’t know how many players are from the Champions until some time next month. Last year, Daizen Maeda became the 27th Celtic player to take the Player of the Year award, while John McGlynn became the first man to win the manager award three times - following his b2b promotions with Falkirk.

With the awards ceremony taking place in Glasgow on Sunday May 3rd, McGlynn will be in the running to win the managers award for a fourth time - although I suspect Derek McIness will be hard to ignore.

This year, I would be surprised if any more than 2 out of the 11 are donned in green and white Hoops, such is the decline from last season’s standards. I expect Celtic - and probably Rangers - to be overshadowed by players from Motherwell, Hearts and perhaps even Falkirk.

So, before the PFA announce their team of the year - as voted for by the players - I give you my own choice for team of the year. My picks are based on a little bit of data, a little bit of league position, and a little bit of ‘vibes’.

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Yesterday I explained how the title race could be decided by a one off play-off match at a neutral venue at the end of May. The article received a lot of positive feedback, and it also prompted some copy-cat articles in the mainstream media.

Due to the popularity of the article, coupled with how close the title race continues to be - I will update these ‘required results’ graphics each weekend, after the last match has been played. If you missed the article or want more detail on how it all works, then you can read it here

Each week, I will provide completely made-up results for the remaining fixtures in order to force six different outcomes. I will produce a graphic for each outcome until that outcome becomes mathematically impossible. For simplicity I will record the winning margin in each match as being by 1 goal, unless more goals are required to force a certain scenario.

The scenarios:

Read more

Always refer to the website ScottishFootball.info for the most accurate version of any article. Any mistakes that are corrected after publication will only show on the website, rendering the version in your email inbox out of date.

This is the second edition of the weekly SPFL Post-Match Stats Packs on ScottishFootball.info, and it covers all four divisions. The aim is that this will constantly evolve and improve from here through member feedback. You can view last week’s post-match stats pack which was released after the conclusion of all matches.

It’s a lot of reading, so my favourite stat from each fixture will be emboldened with the blue line on the left hand side like this.

Please leave any comments regarding what you like or dislike, as well as what you would want to see more or less of in this type of weekend review. Of course please also point out any errors, even if just a small typo - I can correct these easily on the website.

If you are not a paying subscriber yet, please consider taking out a 7-day free trial to continue reading, before deciding for yourself if you think £25 per year (or £3.50 per month) is value for money. If it’s not for you, then cancel at any point before the trial ends and won’t pay anything.

PREMIERSHIP

Aberdeen 2-0 Hibernian

Scorers: K. Nisbet (17' pen, 75')

• Aberdeen ended a 9-match league winless run.

• Hibernian’s six match unbeaten run comes to an end.

• Aberdeen’s second clean sheet in the past 20 matches.

Kevin Nisbet scores two in a match for the third time this calendar year (Jan 2026: 6-2 Vs Livi and Feb 2026, 2-3 Vs Dundee), and scores the winner against Hibs for the second time in the last 12 months (1-0, April 2025).

Celtic 1-0 St Mirren

Scorers: A. Oxlade-Chamberlain (15')

• Celtic are unbeaten in 14 league meetings with St Mirren, winning 12 and drawing two, since a 2-0 defeat in Paisley in September 2022.

Celtic have won all league meetings with St. Mirren this season 1-0, the first time Celtic have beaten a team 1-0 in three consecutive matches since against Dundee in 1992/93.

• St Mirren are without a win in their last 11 league visits to Celtic Park; the last St Mirren win at Celtic Park was 2-1 in January 2021.

• That was the only victory St. Mirren have recorded at Celtic Park in their last 40 matches (4 draws & 35 losses).

• Celtic end a run of eight straight matches without a clean sheet, their longest such run for 20 years.

• St Mirren are also without an away clean sheet in the Premiership this season (17 matches).

Dundee United 3-2 Livingston

Scorers: W. Ferry (19'), K. Keresztes (75'), Z. Sapsford (90'+3 pen) / L. Smith (49', 53')

• Dundee United are unbeaten against Livingston this season, 1-1 at Tannadice in October followed by a 3-1 win at Livingston in December and yesterday’s 3-2 win at Tannadice.

• Both teams have now scored in 4 consecutive league meetings between the sides.

• Dundee United are unbeaten in 5 home league matches.

• Livingston are on the longest winless run in top-flight history, now without a win in 31 league matches and in any of their 17 away league matches.

Livingston have now dropped 25 points from winning positions - the most in the league.
Dundee United have now gained 16 points from losing positions - the most in the league.

Hearts 3-1 Motherwell

Scorers: Cláudio Braga (61'), L. Shankland (87' pen), P. Kaboré (90'+2) / E. Longelo (50')

• Hearts went through the three league meetings with Motherwell so far this season unbeaten, with 1 win and 2 draws.

• Hearts haven’t lost to Motherwell in any of the last six matches (3 wins & 3 draws) which is their longest unbeaten run against the Well since a run of eight from 2005-2007.

Hearts have not lost at Tynecastle in the league all season, unbeaten in all 17 home matches.

• Motherwell are without a win in 5 league matches, losing four. They had only lost three in the previous 28 league matches before this run.

• Hearts have beaten all teams in the division this season, only the ninth time they have achieved this in their history.

Kilmarnock 2-2 Dundee

Scorers: J. Hugill (14'), M. Schjønning-Larsen (33') / S. Murray (24'), S. Wright (81')

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After Hearts recorded what could be a crucial late win over Motherwell at Tynecastle today, they kept their spot at the top of the table - three points ahead of Celtic and four clear of Rangers who play tomorrow against Falkirk.

In what has been a season full of records broken for Hearts, today’s victory meant Hearts have now beaten every team in the league this season, after two earlier draws against Motherwell (3-3 and 0-0).

It may not sound that notable an achievement, especially when Rangers have done it 39 times and Celtic 45 times. However it was only the ninth time in their history that the Jambos have done this, and just the third this century. A fairer comparison for Hearts is probably looking at Hibs rather than the Old Firm; and the Hibees have only managed this only three times in history (1896/97, 1947/48 and 1977/78).

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CLOSE BUT NO CIGAR

In addition to the nine seasons where Hearts had the beating of everyone at least once, there have been 21 seasons where Hearts were able to beat all but one team in the league. For comparison, Hibs have had 13 such seasons where they failed to record a victory against just one team in the league.

This happened most recently for Hearts in 2017, 2022 and 2024 where a victory over Rangers proved elusive. There were nine seasons in total where Hearts beat everyone in the league except the Gers.

Hearts also beat everyone but Celtic on seven occasions, twice this century; in 2003/04 and 2015/16. Clyde (twice), Falkirk, Third Lanark and Leith Athletic are the other four teams that stopped Hearts completing the set of beating the entire division in a season.

The earlier article on historic post-split form showed that it is highly unlikely that any team will win all five matches after the split, and it’s also an outlier for any team to even remain unbeaten. Therefore it looks increasingly likely that the title will be won with less than 80 points for only the second time since the birth of the current 12-team split format in 2000/01.

The narrow gap between the top three, and the likelihood of all dropping points, increases the chances of the title being decided on goal difference compared to how rarely it actually occurs. That’s according to , a subscriber on this website who created a simulator in python for the remaining 36 matches in the division - before running the simulations one million times.

His results had Rangers top on the final day in 36.5% of the simulations, Hearts in 31.4%, and Celtic in just 20.2% of simulations - although we both agree the Celtic % feels slightly low at this stage. The remaining 11.9% is that there is no team clear at the top; and so the title would be decided on goal difference or goals scored

These simulations are exactly that - simulations - but it is incredibly exciting that they found that the title was decided on the final day in nearly one third of the simulations. Helicopter Saturday, here we come!

GOAL DIFFERENCE DECIDER

What caught my eye most in Kevin’s email was that 11.9% of his simulations had the title decided on goal difference. Of course, it still doesn’t happen in 88% of cases, but that is a notably high probability at this stage given how rarely it occurs.

Following on from, but unrelated to, Kevin’s simulations, I’ve put together three sets of example results for the remainder of the season, demonstrating how each team could win the title on goal difference. For Celtic, I’ve made it even more interesting - showing how they can win the league on goals scored!

For simplicity I’ve made every winning result 2-1, which makes it “easier” for Rangers to take the title on goal difference, given they currently lead Hearts by 4 goals and Celtic by 9 goals. In the scenario where Celtic win the league, all wining results are 2-1 except for Celtic’s final two matches, to enable them to with the league on goals scored.

RANGERS WIN ON GOAL DIFFERENCE

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