“Celtic is a tale of adventure, success, failure, exasperation and hope that will never cease to unfold”

Celtic enter their first Europa League phase, with a trip to Serbian Champions FK Crvena Zvezda, who are often referred to as Red Star Belgrade. The hoops last played in the Europa League group stage in the 2021/2022 season, competing in a group alongside Bayer Leverkusen, Real Betis, and Ferencváros. Despite finishing with nine points, they narrowly missed out on qualification for the knockout stages, dropping to the Conference League, but this was an early stage of what would become a dominating Celtic side under Postecoglou. There were some admirable performances - losing by only one goal away from home to both Real Betis and Bayer Leverkusen, and winning a double header home and away to Ferencváros before earning a surprise final matchday victory against Real Betis.

Looking back further, Celtic have a relatively decent history of success against Serbian opposition, with a record of three wins, one draw, and two defeats, including a 2-1 aggregate win over Vojvodina Novi Sad on their way to winning the European Cup in Lisbon. Only one tie between the two Champions of their respective nations has ever been played - in the 1968/1969 European cup - as Celtic thrashed Red Star Belgrade 5-1 in the first leg in Glasgow, before they played out a 1-1 draw in Serbia. However, the Celts are winless on Serbian soil, and with the new format, there is no cushion of trying to recover the points lost at Celtic Park.

“Here we go again; we’re on the road again”

Celtic will not be the only former Champions of Europe in this match, as FK Crvena Zvezda also famously won the big cup in 1991, beating Graeme Souness’ Rangers 4-1 on aggregate en-route to lifting the trophy. The Serbs are a seasoned competitor in European football, having played 395 ties in various UEFA competitions (Celtic with 426), and they are also the most successful club in their country, with 70 domestic trophies.

This season it’s business as usual domestically for FK Crvena Zvezda, as they remain at the top of the Serbian SuperLiga, having won all seven matches played while boasting a goal difference of +25. Their last game came in the Eternal Derby, where they won 2-1 away at Partizan, in the same ground that Hibs recorded a 2-0 victory in just last month. However, like Celtic, Red Star also suffered the ignominy of being knocked out of the UCL play-offs by a team far weaker on paper, against Cypriot side Pafos.

So far this season under head coach Vladan Milojević they have typically played a 4-4-2 with top goal scorer Aleksandar Katai (11 goals in 7 league matches) and recent free transfer signing from Inter Milan, Marko Arnautović, leading the line. They are an experienced squad too, with their last starting 11 having an average age of 28.3. Much like Celtic, they dominate the domestic league in terms of statistics and results, leading in possession, chances created, shots, shots on target, and touches in the opposition’s box.

“We Will Write Our Own Story”

Despite the mostly positive results, except for the European tie against FC Kairat, it’s no secret that Celtic have not started the season at their free-flowing best. It’s the performances that disappoint the manager, players, and fans - against a backdrop of protests against the board. A corner has hopefully been turned however, following a dominant attacking display against Partick Thistle in the League Cup this past weekend.

Celtic will likely approach the game pragmatically, aiming to limit the opposition’s chances and minimise the raucous crowd’s impact, while hitting on the counter. This approach, developed by Rodgers had varying amounts of success last season following a thrashing against Borussia Dortmund. Still, there are key differences between then and now, including the lack of depth upfront, the loss of Kyogo in January, the departures of Kuhn and Idah in the summer, and Jota’s injury, which will presumably rule him out for the entire league phase campaign.

Celtic’s lacklustre scoring streak so far compared to Crvena Zvezda may be a cause for concern for the manager. However, the key attacking threat of Benjamin Nygren has now been added to with the reinforcements of the dynamic Tounekti and experienced striker Iheanacho - who have both started their Celtic careers with a goal - there is hope that the team will now build on the positives.

For the starting 11, although it may be somewhat up in the air amongst the front three, the first choices for goalkeeper, defence, and midfield all look fairly set. Only young Colby Donovan is the odd one out from being the clear first choice, covering for the injured Johnston and Ralston.

The front three will aim to provide a balance of defensive energy, particularly from Maeda and Balikwisha, who can both provide an outlet to get runners in behind and hit the opposition on the counter - albeit Balikwisha is yet to show this in the green and white. The dribbling and ball carrying of Tounekti could be key, and he received widespread praise for this aspect of his game at the weekend.

This match may be a significant indicator of how Celtic’s season will likely go; a loss would see another key test failed for this team. A draw will likely suffice, considering how difficult the match will be, yet it will likely not define our Europa League qualification chances. A win would be most welcome, particularly given the poor optics following a disappointing window, dropping out of UCL qualification, and not playing at a consistently high level since the beginning of the season.

At the same time, it’s a great chance to propel the team forward and put behind the poor end to last season and start this season. The manager promised the outside noise won’t affect him or the team. Time will tell, but a convincing victory against a decent level of opposition will go a long way to proving him right!

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If you know your history

“It's enough to make your heart grow sad”

Celtic have not had to face a European qualifier since 2021, when they played a Europa League playoff tie against AZ Alkmaar. They were able to see the Dutch off thanks to a 2-0 victory at home followed by a narrow 2-1 loss in the return leg, ultimately progressing 3-2 on aggregate. That same summer was when Celtic played their last Champions League qualifier, a second-round tie against FC Midtjylland. This was the first competitive tie for Ange Postecoglou's Celtic side, where they faltered to a 1-1 draw at home and lost 2-1 away after extra time. Celtic's Champions League qualification record in the seasons prior was also abysmal, with the side reaching no further than the third round since 2017, losing to the likes of Ferencvárosi, CFR Cluj, and AEK Athens.

Celtic last played a Champions League playoff tie against Astana in 2017. A ruthless 5–0 first leg at home (Scott Sinclair ×2, James Forrest, plus two own goals) effectively settled the tie. The away leg was chaotic—1–1 at half-time, three Astana goals around the hour - but late finishes from Olivier Ntcham and Leigh Griffiths steadied things as Celtic went through 8-4 on aggregate.

Now, it's FC Kairat: the first leg is scheduled for Wednesday August 20th at Celtic Park, with the return leg on Tuesday August 26. Qualification this season is fortunately just one single round, a contrast to Brendan Rodgers' previous tenure, when four were required. This is familiar ground for the manager, but a fresh challenge for a squad accustomed to automatic entry to the group/league phase.

Over the past three seasons, Celtic have steadily raised their European floor, culminating in a knockout playoff with Bayern: Nicolas Kühn put them ahead in Munich before Alphonso Davies' late equaliser settled the tie. The platform was Celtic Park - wins over Slovan Bratislava, BSC Young Boys and RB Leipzig, plus a draw with Club Brugge; only Bayern left Glasgow with a victory. The away lesson was harder won: a 7-1 schooling at Dortmund was followed by a controlled 0-0 at Atalanta and a pragmatic point at an injury-hit Dinamo Zagreb. Celtic ended the initial Champions League phase with a 4-2 defeat to Aston Villa. Although essentially a dead rubber for Celtic, this victory propelled Aston Villa to the top 8 places, enabling them to bypass the next playoff round. All of them point the same way for this tie: build a cushion at home, then manage risk and tempo on the road.

The Bould Bould Celts

“The team they call the Celtic is the best that can be found”

Celtic come into the tie on good form with two league wins, three goals scored, and two clean sheets, having left it late to find a winner against St Mirren on flag day, thanks to Luke McCowan. However, they stepped up a level in performance against Aberdeen, running out comfortable 2-0 winners with goals from Nygren and Hatate.

In the League Cup at the weekend, Celtic made it three wins from three this season - despite six changes to the starting lineup - as Falkirk were eased aside 4-1 at Celtic Park. The expected starting 11 will likely be very similar to our opening two league games, with most of those rested at the weekend likely to return.

Last week, I wrote for this site about the need for Celtic to recruit new wingers. However, there’s frustratingly still no signs of any new incomings, and even if Celtic were to sign them - it's unlikely they would be ready to start the first leg.

The main points of contention will be RW, as Yang started on Flag Day, and Forrest started against Aberdeen, so there is no clear favourite yet. However, I do believe Forrest will start. The other position potentially up for grabs is ST, as since rejoining Celtic permanently Adam Idah has underwhelmed massively in the pre-season and the first two league games. Yamada would have been hoping for the chance to impress Rodgers in the League Cup against Falkirk, however it was Johnny Kenny who was surprisingly given the nod to start.

Tactically, the setup has not undergone significant changes. I won't go into too much detail here. However, I will highlight some of the key phases of play.

In a deep build-up, we see the two centre-backs in the box, a flat three just outside the box with the #6 and the two full-backs, the two #8s in front of them. However, we can see one of those drops deeper too, to assist in the build-up. The front three occupy the halfway line, with the wingers particularly staying high and wide to stretch the defence. From this position, the typical passing options are the CBs or the #6, but there is always the long option to one of the front three, something that Celtic should utilise more often in European settings.

It's once Celtic have beaten the initial press and transitioned into higher build-up play, a key change becomes apparent. Last season, with Taylor, we often saw one, if not both, full backs inverting alongside the #6 to gain a numerical advantage in midfield. This, in tandem with the space in the wide channel being less congested, allowed wingers to be in one-on-one situations regularly.

With Taylor's departure and Tierney's arrival, Rodgers appears to have opted for the full-backs to stay wide instead of inverted (however, we have found both inverting on occasion, with Johnston more so). With this change, the #8s no longer stay wide and will play narrower, with this space being occupied by the full-backs, who will look to overlap or underlap in the wide channel. So far, we have seen that they typically opt for the latter.

For the sake of brevity, I won't go into tremendous tactical detail on the setup, but the slight change in build-up was worth highlighting.

We don't care what the … say

“What the hell do we care?”

Now we move on to the opposition, FC Kairat. I reached out to some English-speaking accounts in Kazakhstan, but unfortunately, I did not receive a response from them. Therefore, my analysis of Kairat will be based on watching 120 minutes of their second-leg game against Slovan Bratislava, as well as information I can find online.

Under the management of Rafael Urazbakhtin, Kairat set up with a compact midfield block and a very high backline, aiming to spring offside traps and an aggressive sweeper-keeper. In possession, they look to counter early by using their pace and width, but in doing so, they also commit many players forward. With loose control of possession, the goal they conceded was an absolute gift, as the defender, under no pressure, passed the ball directly to an opposition player. They can also be easily countered. Slovan Bratislava had numerous occasions where they had a numerical advantage in transition, breaking into Kairat's half, but poor finishing and final balls prevented them from scoring. The match, which went the whole duration including penalties, was taking its toll on the Kairat players. Extra-time on top of the lengthy travel saw several players going down with cramps, but they still managed to fashion chances. One last notable aspect of the match was the number of fouls and yellow cards, with a combined 50 fouls (24 for Kairat) and 12 yellow cards (4 for Kairat). They are not afraid to foul in an attempt to stop the opposing team from countering, as evidenced by their average of 3.5 yellow cards per match in their UCL run so far.

Kairat play a 4-3-2-1/4-3-3 with the above seeming to be their strongest 11, but Gromyko will be missing for the first leg due to suspension. Their qualification run so far can be summarised as poor on the road, strong at home. In the previous three rounds, they have drawn 1-1 in Slovenia, lost 2-0 in Finland and lost 1-0 in Slovakia. They have been faultless at home however, where they have won 2-0, 3-0 and 1-0. They can particularly find strength in Kazakhstan, not just from the lengthy travel away teams have to endure, but also because the Almaty stadium is 829m above sea level. That's nearly twice as high as any other club in qualifying, which causes issues for teams not accustomed to the conditions. The story feels similar to Bodø/Glimt, a team that plays good progressive football but makes the most of their environment to maximise home advantage.

Lastly, just focusing on some key players, it's very hard not to hone in on the recently turned 17-year-old Satpayev. He became the youngest ever UCL scorer, netting a goal against Olimpija in the first qualifying round. Earlier this year, he agreed a £3.5 million move to Chelsea after impressing on trial there at the tail end of 2024 - he’ll move to Stamford Bridge when he turns 18 next summer. Fellow striker, the 27-year old Portuguese Jorginho, is also in a rich vein of form and one of their key attacking threats.

I still pray to God, we go on another run

“And beat the best in Europe like Jock Stein's already done”

The task is clear; Celtic must win the tie to secure a 4th consecutive season of Champions League (now) league phase football. The financial gulf between the premier European competition and the others is growing bigger every single year, and for Celtic to retain financial dominance in Scotland, they must continue to participate. However, that's the view of the money men.

From a fan's perspective, absolutely nothing in football beats hearing that anthem, the accompanying Celtic Park roar, and the excitement of facing off against the best teams in Europe and triumphing. Celtic folklore is littered with scalps against European giants; Barcelona, Manchester United, and AC Milan all suffered defeat at Celtic Park, but that was the all-too-distant past now. We have not competed at the same level in the last 5-10 years as we did 20-25 years ago, albeit due to the widening financial gap; not just to the top 5 European leagues but also to the Dutch and Portuguese leagues, among others.

Celtic must continue to make strides this season, again achieving a place in the top 24 to qualify for the knockout playoff, with the aim of a favourable draw. Still, most of all, to progress, to finally get that knockout record monkey off their back. That would be Brendan Rodgers' crowning achievement in both his spells at Celtic.

This starts with the upcoming home leg, and Celtic must win the game comfortably to put themselves firmly in the driving seat before the trip to a difficult away venue.

🎥 Brendan Rodgers leads the squad onto the Estádio Nacional pitch in Lisbon earlier this summer, where Celtic won the European Cup in 1967.

This article was a guest contribution by CelticAnalytico.
They are a passionate Celtic supporter with a keen interest in the tactical and analytical side of the game. Please follow CelticAnalytico on X and comment below any feedback on this long-read!

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Thanks, Gavin

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Celtic face a winger shortage just days before finalising their squad for the Champions League playoff – a stage this side hasn't had to navigate in eight years, after enjoying the safety of automatic qualification for the past three seasons. The last time they played in the UCL playoff was against Astana in 2017.

This year, the stakes are higher and the clock ticks faster. The bulk of the squad must be in place by 11pm on Thursday August 14th, and realistically, earlier if they are to feature in these pivotal games, weeks before the usual September 1st transfer deadline.

Supporters are used to questioning Celtic's transfer business. Too often, key arrivals have come later than needed or have been "projects" rather than immediate starters. However, this summer's criticism cuts deeper: the squad is not only short on quality out wide, but it is also dangerously short on numbers.

This analysis examines the departures and the voids they have left, evaluates the current wingers' tactical and analytical profiles, assesses the knock-on effects for Celtic's system, and identifies potentially realistic signings who could address the problem before it defines the season.

THE DEPARTURES

Jota

The first of Celtic's losses on the wings came on May 2nd, when it was confirmed that he suffered cruciate ligament damage and would be out at least until 2026. Returning to Celtic permanently earlier this year, he looked to be exactly the alternative option Celtic were crying out for on the left wing, capable of cutting inside, very strong and active in dribbling and ball carrying, with a high involvement in ball progression and chance creation. A look at this profile from his 22/23, the last season where he played over 1000 mins in a league.

It's a straightforward summary: Jota was in elite categories in all key metrics for a winger in Scotland, which is unsurprising, considering it was partly this form that led to him leaving Celtic for around £25 million to Al Ittihad.

The tactical role for wingers is reasonably similar; both Postecoglou and Rodgers prefer to play with "traditional" wingers and work them into one-on-one situations against the opposition's full back, while maintaining the width of the frontline. While not entirely the same, it makes sense why Jota was able to make a seamless transition back into Celtic despite playing under a new manager.

Using FotMob data from the 24/25 season, Jota's impact, while limited, still showed the calibre and type of player he is. Achieving 0.48 xG per 90 and underperforming in assists with 0.37 expected assists per 90 and 0.32 assists per 90, ranking in elite categories for shooting and chance creation. However, his dribbling and ball carrying, while very good, were still not at his previous levels, completing 1.58 successful dribbles per 90 but only a 35.7% dribble success rate. It truly was cruel and unfortunate for Jota to suffer such a severe injury so late into the season, and writing him off for most of next season, as a successful pre-season like he had before the 22/23 season and Kuhn before 24/25, could have brought him back to his very best or perhaps even better.

Nicolas Kuhn

And speaking of Kuhn, his departure from Celtic was confirmed on July 11^th as he signed for Cesc Fàbregas' Como for a fee of over £16.5 million. He had a very similar season in terms of absolutely exploding for Celtic, much like Jota did in 22/23, ranking in elite categories across the board (except for cross completion). Similarly, his domestic excellence was bolstered by strong performances in the Champions League, where he scored and created crucial goals. He does differ tactically; Kuhn is a traditional winger who likes to stay as wide as possible, hug the touchline, or cut inside to shoot, as a result of being left-footed. This would offer a nice balance to his opposite winger.

Before 24/25 and even joining Celtic, he was an excellent dribbler and chance creator, but it was last season where his shooting and final ball came on leaps and bounds, his first 2 seasons of top-flight football (22/23 and 23/24) he scored 10 goals and provided 13 assists, and in 24/25 he tallied 21 goals and 15 assists. An astonishing improvement, and even more remarkable was how many he got from August to December, as since the start of the year, he registered only seven goals and four assists.

The losses of these two players are enormous, and as Brendan Rodgers alluded to, he is not at Celtic to maintain; he is here to build up the club and progress, and he can only do this by continually improving and refreshing the squad, something badly needed as his Celtic team felt stale and unimaginative towards the end of the season.

THE CURRENT STATE

Celtic currently have four first-team wingers, with Nygren capable of playing in that position if required. However, he is viewed primarily as a #8 or #10, roles he describes as his strongest.

Daizen Maeda

Celtic and Scotland's unanimous player of the year last season, Maeda, was the club's most potent attacking threat. He delivered his best season yet, scoring 33 goals and assisting 12 - a goal or assist every 90 minutes across just over 4,000 minutes. Since joining in January 2022, he has been a tactical weapon for both Postecoglou and Rodgers, using his extraordinary athleticism to press, track back, and nullify almost any threat down his side. Always capable of scoring, though equally prone to wasting chances, last season he developed composure in front of goal, which significantly improved his conversion rate - a clear result of Rodgers' influence.

Maeda is not without flaws. His data profile shows an excellent end product, solid key passes and cross completion numbers, but weaker dribbling and ball progression. Attempting 3.33 dribbles per 90, he completes 59.6% of them, yet his progressive carries and passes remain well below top-tier levels. He is the player you want to suffocate teams in the left channel, get on the end of chances, and lead counters, not the one to break down low blocks through dribbling and passing. Still, he remains Celtic's most crucial winger, and that is unlikely to change regardless of new arrivals.

James Forrest

The most decorated player in the club's history - over 100 goals, over 100 assists, and more than 500 appearances -Forrest debuted 15 years ago and is firmly among Celtic's greats. Even at 34, he remains a valuable squad member, as demonstrated on Flag Day against St Mirren, when his introduction helped propel the team to victory. However, his influence is now limited. A significant ankle injury in 2020 reduced his minutes and acceleration, but he compensates with intelligence, movement, and creativity.

His limited minutes (just over 1,000 last season) make his per-90 metrics strong across most categories, except for non-penalty goals - it took until the final league game to score and extend his remarkable streak to 16 consecutive seasons. Both he and Rodgers are clear on his role: starting when rotation or tactics require, but primarily serving as an impact substitute. His homegrown status strengthens UEFA List A balance for the 2025/26 season.

Yang

Yang is stuck in what could be called Celtic purgatory - not ready to be a permanent starter, yet not poor enough to discard entirely. Now in his second season, he has yet to cement a first-team place, although in flashes, he has shown real promise.

He ranks first in the league for progressive carries per 90, has the Premiership's highest npxG/shot (0.22), and is second only to Maeda in goal conversion (31.25%) as well as a slew of other categories. However, his creative output is lacking, and consistency remains the most significant issue. Without repeated strong performances, he is hard to rely on. A loan spell offering regular minutes could be the key to unlocking his potential.

Marco Tilio

Tilio is the hardest to assess. He hasn't played a competitive minute since December 2023 and has logged only 28 minutes since signing in summer 2023. Without A-League data, it isn't easy to analyse his form at Melbourne City, where he returned on loan for the last season and a half.

Signed as Melbourne City's record sale and one of Australia's brightest young talents, he has failed to make an impact in Scotland. He appears to be out of Rodgers' plans, with a loan to Rapid Vienna potentially permanent, stalling only because Celtic can't afford to lose another winger at present.

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THE REALITY

Frankly, the current setup is nowhere near good enough to tackle any European tie. With only one out-and-out left winger in Maeda (Forrest and Yang preferring to play right, although they are right-footed and have played on the left), and a massive lack of quality on the opposite flank, the situation is rather dire if we can't even let Tilio leave. And with no apparent incoming deals, multiple deals are either stuttering or are completely dead in the water. This looks to be the setup for the foreseeable future.

The lack of balance, not just in numbers but also in profiles on the wings, immediately causes concern. As if Maeda struggles to create chances, there is no direct replacement for him to change the game, and with no one replacing Kuhn, we've lost a serious threat on that flank. Celtic's wing threat becomes highly dependent on Maeda. Yang and Forrest are the obvious choices to play on the right. Still, Yang is too raw and inconsistent to be relied upon, and Forrest can't play anywhere near as many minutes as we need from someone on that flank, and neither can replicate what Kuhn brought to Celtic on the European stage.

It is therefore the absolute top priority Celtic bring in, at the very least, two wingers, a right-footed LW and preferably a left-footed RW of different profiles.

THE NEEDS

Right Wing

Replacing a £16.5 million player is never straightforward. Still, we can at least pinpoint the core qualities that made Kuhn so valuable and seek a player with comparable tactical strengths, supported by evidence. At the top of the list is elite dribbling ability matched with pace - an absolute non-negotiable for his successor. Additionally, we need to improve our crossing and consistently create chances. A proven goal threat would be a welcome bonus, though not essential; Celtic have a strong track record of refining that final edge in players such as Maeda, Kuhn himself, and O'Riley.

Many wingers might tick those boxes, but two further filters narrow the field considerably. First, Celtic will not be signing players of Saka or Yamal's stature, nor will they spend more than £10 million. Setting a maximum Transfermarkt valuation of €5 million effectively rules out most top-five league options that wouldn't already be out of reach due to transfer fees or wages. Second, the player must be comfortable operating at a European tempo while also thriving in the domestic game.

Left Wing

The left side poses a subtler dilemma. With Maeda already established as the starter and likely to play the majority of matches, it isn't easy to justify a significant outlay on a permanent, top-tier signing for this role. Jota is expected to return at some stage next season, but whether he can reach his previous level remains an open question.

Given that uncertainty, the most sensible approach would be a loan deal with an option to buy. This would allow Celtic to bring in a higher-calibre player in the short term without closing off future options. Should Jota's return fall short, the club would already have an accomplished replacement in place and the flexibility to make the move permanent if the player proves successful.

From a tactical perspective, the ideal profile is a winger with genuine creative flair -someone capable of breaking down low-block defences, delivering a high volume of progressive and attacking actions in the final third, and driving forward with purpose on the ball.

THE POTENTIAL TARGETS

Quick caveat before the names: this is a thought exercise, not a rumour round-up or an endorsement list. Some of these players will be new to most of us, and a few may be unrealistic for price, availability, or fit. On the left side, I've split targets into loan and permanent categories. My preference is to keep Maeda as the starter and bring in short-term cover for Jota on loan, rather than make a permanent signing that leaves us with three LWs (or pushes Maeda up front). Loans are challenging to source at this late stage, so I've included a couple of sensible permanent options as well.

Right Wing

To find a realistic Nicolas Kuhn replacement, the search focuses on the metrics that defined his value while staying within Celtic's budget and tactical brief. We're targeting a left-footed RW (18–26), ≤ €5m on Transfermarkt, with ≥900 competitive minutes to avoid small-sample noise. Use percentiles over raw counts: ≥75th for progressive carries and key passes; ≥80th for successful dribbles—mirroring Kuhn's 1v1 and ball-advancing edge. End product matters too: ≥65th for non-penalty goals, assists, and accurate crosses, plus ≥75th for npxG+xA to guarantee consistent threat. That mix of progression, creativity, and output—at an affordable price and with a European-ready profile—maximises the chance of landing someone who can replicate Kuhn and even improve the crossing/variety piece he sometimes lacked.

Alex Calatrava

• Profile: Direct, forward-first passer with enough carry to beat a man; not an out-and-out volume dribbler but still active in 1v1s.

• What he adds: Touchline width, progressive passing, and aggression into the final third; a Kuhn-adjacent profile without the same crossing punch.

• Numbers snapshot: Dribble success 52.94%, pass completion 71.79% -depressed by the sheer % of progressive/forward attempts rather than safe recycling. Goal threat currently light; crossing not elite.

• Red flags: Zero top-flight minutes to date; late top-tier entry at 25 raises the "level" question.

• Availability/permit: Previously Atleti B, now second tier - realistic fee; development bet rather than plug-and-play.

• Verdict: Feels Kuhn-coded in arc (big club academy → step back → spike). If we accept some short-term variance, there's a player to polish here.

Weslley Patati

• Profile: Lively, elastic dribbler with a real end-product uptick; comfortable across the front, not strictly a chalk-on-boots RW.

• What he adds: 1v1 separation + shots/assists now, not just "potential." European tempo exposure via continental group-stage minutes.

• Numbers snapshot: 13G/10A in ~2700' last season; 4 G+A in 7 Europa group games; ranks 1st/2nd/3rd across multiple dribble/shoot/create metrics in Ligat Ha'Al.

• Red flags: The jump to SPFL intensity and UCL is non-trivial; the usage map is wide (LW/AM), so role clarity matters if we want a Kuhn-like RW.

• Availability/permit: Moved to Maccabi for ~€1.45m; would cost a premium now but still within Celtic's structure if conviction is high.

• Verdict: The closest "impact now" successor on pure output. If the fee is reasonable and we're happy to tailor the role, this makes much sense.

Lucas Villalba

• Profile: All-round winger: shoots well, creates well, dribbles enough even if he has a poor completion rate; plays with purpose.

• What he adds: Balanced threat -not just carries, but final action. Gives us the ability to cross and shoot without compromising the creative side.

• Numbers snapshot: Strong league-relative ranks across key chance-creation and scoring metrics; dribble completions way short of "elite" tier.

• Red flags: First full top-flight year in Uruguay lands 2025; SPFL/UCL translation is a leap. Celtic's recent record of integrating South American players is mixed.

• Availability/permit: Signed for approximately €770k; Italian nationality streamlines a UK work permit path and keeps costs manageable.

• Verdict: A value play with genuine upside if adaptation hits. Lower fee, higher variance -but the toolkit fits the brief.

Summary

All three RW targets broadly fit the Kuhn template (left-footed, 18–26, ≥900', ≤€5m) and hit the progression/1v1 bars, but they're stepping up from lower leagues. The honest read: a true plug-and-play Kuhn replacement is unlikely right now; we'll likely need to accept a development arc and live with some variance while the minutes bed in. We shouldn't be in this position, but we are where we are.

Left Wing

The original plan was a loan with an option to cover Jota. The market's thin at this stage, so I've opted for three routes: a young loan, a young permanent, and a more experienced permanent, providing us with flexibility without committing to Maeda or Jota long-term.

To model the ideal fit, I've used Jota's 2022/23 as the template—his last full, elite Premiership season. The filters broadly match the RW search but lean toward his strengths: wingers aged 18–26, with a minimum of 900 minutes, and within Celtic's reach in terms of fee/wages. Statistically, we're looking at ≥75th for progressive carries and successful dribbles (the ability to advance play and beat a man), ≥65th for non-penalty goals, ≥70th for assists, ≥80th for combined xG+xA, ≥80th for key passes, and ≥65th for accurate crosses to capture his wide-area delivery. In short, we tend to favour ball progression and chance creation on the left, rather than Kuhn's more touchline-heavy, high-volume dribbling profile on the right.

Ben Doak

• Profile: Academy-made at Celtic, polished at Liverpool; explosive first step, direct ball-carrying, plays predominantly off the right but can flip to the left.

• What he adds: Raw 1v1 separation and chaos -the sort of dribble-first winger who moves a block and wins territory even when the pass isn't on.

• Numbers snapshot: Senior sample still light after a Middlesbrough loan curtailed by a hamstring issue; treat any per-90s with a big sample-size caveat.

• Red flags: Availability and price - Liverpool have explored a £15–20m sale; injuries and limited senior minutes mean there's a risk if he has to start now.

• Availability/permit: If no buyer emerges late in the window, a loan with an option becomes a viable option; otherwise, it is likely outside our permanent range.

• Verdict: Pie-in-the-sky but absolutely the correct type: a high-ceiling wide threat who can change a game state even without touches. If the loan door opens, we should be at the front of the queue.

Edvin Austbø

• Profile: Progressive carries + successful dribbles high, creative actions in the final third, with enough end product to matter.

• What he adds: A change-the-picture left-sider when Maeda isn't the answer in a low block; carries you up the pitch and plays the last pass.

• Numbers snapshot: Meets a large portion of the Jota threshold even as a young, inexperienced player and would likely transition well to a possession-dominant team. Overperforming in xG and yet is struggling with a poor goal conversion rate, indicating areas for improvement.

• Red flags: Level jump + European tempo still to prove; young profile means bumpy minutes early on.

• Availability/permit: Reasonable fee territory; suits a medium-term build rather than short-term guarantees.

• Verdict: Sensible long-view buy who mirrors the "Jota-ish" actions we're missing, without blocking Jota if/when he returns.

Milson

• Profile: Senior option to raise the floor now - carries, beats his man, and sustains attacking actions in the final third rather than just running channels.

• What he adds: A winger who can break a set defence: progressive actions + crossing quality to mirror the Jota model.

• Numbers snapshot: Selected against Jota-based thresholds (carries/dribbles/Key Passes/xG+xA) to ensure creative heft, not just pace.

• Red flags: Cost/role fit vs Maeda minutes; we need him to accept rotation and still deliver Europe-ready actions immediately.

• Availability/permit: Experienced enough to help now; price and wages dictate feasibility.

• Verdict: The pragmatic "plug the gap" pick for this window's timeline -lets you push the loan market later if needed.

Summary

The logic holds: keep Maeda as the starter, cover Jota with a loan and option if possible, and only buy if the profile genuinely moves the needle in breaking down low blocks (progressive carries, successful dribbles, key passes, xG+xA). In that frame, Doak is the swing-for-upside loan, Austbø the young permanent who mirrors the Jota-ish actions, and Milson the experienced floor-raiser who helps immediately without blocking future choices.

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Celtic have still never won in Germany, while Bayern remain undefeated at home against Scottish teams, boasting a now 15-match unbeaten run against Scots since their 1-0 Tynecastle loss in 1989. It’ll now be at least 22 years since Celtic last won a European knockout tie after Christmas. Sigh.

On the bright side, Scotland’s Coefficient gained 0.2 points - which was unexpected before kick off tonight. However, to secure 12th place, we now rely on pretty much all teams from the surrounding countries being eliminated this week - and then Rangers mounting a deep Europa League run on their own.

Celtic missed out on an €11m progression bonus - and the chance for a last 16 tie against Atlético Madrid or Bayer Leverkusen. However, they've already earned €46m plus ticket sales from five home European matches - the highest ever UEFA earnings in a season by any Scottish club:

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History is against Celtic:

Celtic haven’t overturned a first-leg defeat in Europe (excluding qualifiers) since 1992, when they lost 2-0 away to Köln only to then win 3-0 at Celtic Park. Since then, they’ve been eliminated in all nine knockout ties after losing the first leg.

They have never progressed from a major knockout tie after losing the first leg at home (0/7). The only time they managed it in qualifiers was in 2009; Samaras' injury time winner saw Tony Mowbray's men beat Dynamo Moscow 2-0 away after a 1-0 home defeat.

Celtic have never won a European match in Germany after 15 attempts, with 3 draws and 12 losses - including the visit to Dortmund earlier in the season.

Celtic will be reliant on the superhuman efforts of man of the moment Daizen Maeda, after he started on the bench at the weekend to give him a rare rest. He completed the most sprints in the competition last week (53) and he's consistently been in the top 2 every matchday.

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HISTORY AGAINST THE GERMANS

This is the third German team Celtic have faced in their nine European matches this season, following a crucial home win over RB Leipzig on matchday 4 and a disastrous away defeat to Borussia Dortmund on matchday 2. Historically, Celtic have struggled against German opposition, winning just five of their 30 encounters - their lowest number of wins against any of Europe’s major footballing nations.

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• Revenue down: £83.5m (2023: £85.2m)
  Broken down into Stadium operations (£31m), Commercial (£34m), and Merchandising (£18m)

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Daizen Maeda becomes the first Celtic player to score three hat-tricks in a 12 month period since

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As it stands, Scottish teams are undefeated in exactly 50% of matches Vs English teams in European Competition. Celtic are undefeated in 70% of their matches against English opponents.

The full record of each Scottish club Vs English clubs is listed in this table:

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