When we could end up with as many as four clubs in the Conference League phase at the same time, there are lots of interesting permutations to consider. This article contains all the information you could possibly want for each team, including all of their potential routes through qualifiers, the prize money on offer, the potential opponents lying in wait and the key dates this summer.

The article is broken down by club, with four sections for each: entry point, route through qualifiers, potential opponents and prize money

Each club has a summary graphic, before explaining in more detail. The article concludes with a reminder of how bleak the entry points will be next summer, and what is required to ‘fix’ this.

HEARTS

ENTRY POINT

By securing a top two finish, Hearts will return to Champions League qualifiers for the first time since the 2006/07 season, when they finished second ahead of Rangers in 2005/06. Back then, Hearts defeated Široki Brijeg of Bosnia thanks to a thumping 3-0 home win at Murrayfield in front of 28,000 fans, before a 5-1 aggregate hammering at the hands of AEK Athens. Their European campaign was then ended that year at the hands of Sparta Prague in the first round of the UEFA Cup.

UEFA typically doesn’t allow Champions League branding in the stadium nor the official anthem to be played in any of the rounds prior to the final playoff round, so we are only guaranteed to see and hear this at Tynecastle if the Jambos win the league. As Champions, they would enter in the Champions League playoff round, and if they win that tie they reach the UCL phase. If they lose, they drop directly into the Europa League phase (no qualifiers needed.)

If Hearts are runners-up, then they’ll have to do as Rangers did last season and win two qualifying ties to reach the playoff round, if we’re going to see the big baw being bounced about on the centre circle at Tynecastle while the anthem blasts through the tannoy.

No Scottish team outside Rangers and Celtic has ever reached a league phase/group stage of European competition by winning three qualifying ties, and so it will be a huge ask for Hearts to reach the Champions League if they are the Scottish runners-up. However, such are the nuances of UEFA’s competitions, Hearts might still be able to enjoy their best European campaign since 1989 by only winning one tie - regardless of their Premiership finish.

HEARTS’ ROUTE THROUGH QUALIFIERS

If Hearts finish 1st, it’s simple: win one tie = Champions League phase. Lose the tie and it’s Europa League phase.

However if Hearts finish 2nd, it’s more complicated. There are four final outcomes - including total European elimination - and several routes through each of the competitions.

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STATE OF PLAY

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WHAT DO RANGERS NEED?

After Shakhtar’s second leg 2-2 draw tonight away to AZ Alkmaar, the situation for Rangers has become more clear.

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When the Champions League winner has already qualified for the next season’s competition through their own domestic league, an automatic slot is vacated. Previously, this would go to the nation ranked 11th in UEFA’s country coefficient ranking, but it was altered meaning any spare entry ticket would instead go to the highest ranked champion in Champions League qualifiers.

The word ‘champion’ is important - as it means a team with a high club coefficient (like Rangers) cannot benefit from this if they are not the champions of their domestic league. That’s because the Champions have to play qualifiers, and so the team that finished 2nd or lower cannot ‘leapfrog’ the team that finished 1st and proceed straight into the Champions League phase.

For Rangers this season - and potentially Celtic in future seasons - this means that no matter how low Scotland’s coefficient drops, there always remains a prospect of automatic Champions League qualification for the Scottish Champions. Scotland are currently ranked a horrifically low 18th in the country coefficient rankings, in case you had forgotten.

THIS SEASON - STILL A CHANCE

Bodø/Glimt finishing 2nd in the Norwegian Eliteserien was good news for Rangers. Due to the aforementioned “no leapfrogging” rule, it meant that even though Bodø overtook Rangers in UEFA’s club coefficient ranking (they are 32nd and Rangers are 37th) - it didn’t matter. They didn’t win the Norwegian league and so they are out of the running for any automatic Champions League place that may become available.

However, Bodø weren’t the only challengers to Rangers’ impressive club coefficient. As I told back in January, Olympiakos progression in the Champions League meant they had earned enough coefficient point to march past Rangers and into 34th in the rankings.

What that meant was that for Rangers to benefit from any vacated Champions League spot, not only did they have to win the Scottish Premiership, but they had to hope that Olympiakos didn’t win the Greek Super League. This looked ominous at the time, but after Olympiakos were beaten at home by former Hearts left back James Penrice’s AEK Athens last week, they slipped five points off the pace.

The Greek league has a relatively new split format where the league splits after 26 matches, and then the top four play each other home and away for a total of 32 matches. This means that with 27 matches played, there are now only five matches remaining for the title challenging group. Five points in five matches may seem a lot of ground to make up, but it is absolutely doable given Olympiakos still have to play home and away to both PAOK and Cyriel Dessers’ Panathinaikos, before ending the season away to current leaders AEK.

So Olympiakos are down, but not out yet. Keep an eye on them, but of course, they aren’t the only obstacle in Rangers’ way.

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Scotland will finish the season 18th in UEFA rankings, a stark decline from the 9th place we held just three years ago!

The official confirmation has been a long time coming - Celtic would have had to win every match en route to the Europa League final to keep us in with a chance of finishing 15th. Even if they had managed that almost impossible feat, it still might not have been enough. We would still be dependent on the clubs from the nations above us dropping out.

This will be the biggest drop in Scotland’s ranking since 2012, which will have a monumental impact on the team’s European entry points.

Long term supporters of my work will know that this had been in the post for several years now. I’ve discussed it in length on this website, featured in the Herald, on the BBC website and live on the BBC evening news earlier this season, warning of the impending drop.

Now it’s officially confirmed though, we can finally state for certain what this means for our clubs:

THE END OF THIS SEASON

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Scottish European League Phase Matches counter 2025/26 = 
22/22 matches played: 4 wins + 5 draw + 13 losses

An ultimately disappointing European league phase campaign for the Scottish sides came to an end on Thursday evening - salvaged somewhat by the fact Celtic progressed to the knockout round with a routine 4-2 victory over hapless Utrecht.

The Celts finished 21st which is within the unseeded knockout spots (17th-24th); meaning their first leg against 11th placed Stuttgart will take place in Glasgow on 19th February. The Germans finished in a seeded position (9th-16th) and so receive the advantage of hosting the second leg at home the following week. The same is true for the last 16; should Celtic progress - they will be unseeded and so drawn (on 27th Feb) to face one of two seeded top eight teams; either Porto or Braga, with the 1st leg at home on 12th March & 2nd leg away on 19th March.

Celtic were just 2 points away from a seeded 16th spot and so securing an additional victory, or converting a couple of draws to wins, could have been crucial. The hoops were five points away from a top 8 spot and skipping the knockout round altogether, which would have required a stellar campaign.

Last season’s Celtic team may have fancied their chances at that, however progression in any form for this year’s side is still commendable. This is especially true given the likes of Young Boys, Sturm Graz, Feyenoord, Basel, Salzburg and Rangers were all eliminated. The quality in the Europa League is obviously higher than the Scottish Premiership and so given Celtic’s patchy domestic form this season, the fans will be pleased to see them safely into the knockout round - something which did not seem likely before Martin O’Neill returned.

For city rivals Rangers, they followed up last season’s impressive 8th place finish with a hugely disappointing 32nd, after losing 6 of 8 matches. This time last year, Rangers conceded a stoppage time goal at Old Trafford to end the longest unbeaten away run in Europe by any Scottish team ever (7 matches). This year, the defeat in Porto was their sixth consecutive away European defeat and their 12th consecutive away European match without keeping a clean sheet. Both of these are new and unwanted club records for the Gers.

Rangers’ joined Aberdeen in facing league phase elimination, after Dundee United and Hibs both fell in the qualifiers. With the introduction of the Conference League, any season in which only one Scottish team does well in Europe will see us struggle to keep pace with our rivals, as we continue to tumble down UEFA’s rankings (from 9th to 18th in just four seasons!)

The rest of this article provides a detailed breakdown of the prize money and coefficient points earned by all Scottish clubs, as well as our place in this year’s UEFA rankings. I’ll also look ahead to next season, looking at the impact of Rangers’ Europa league final run dropping off our total.

THIS SEASON’S COEFFICIENT

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Scottish European League Phase Matches counter 2025/26 = 
20/22 matches played: 3 wins + 5 draw + 12 losses

After adding 0.6 points to Scotland’s coefficient last week, a similar return this week would be a great end to what has been a very poor campaign from the Scottish sides.

Celtic almost certainly need a victory to progress, while already eliminated Rangers may need to avoid defeat to add important club coefficient points to keep them at the top of that coefficient table.

This article explains:

• Celtic’s progression permutations

  • What next if they progress?

• Rangers’ club coefficient

  • What results to look out for?

• UEFA earnings

  • How much can they add this week

• Scotland’s Coefficient next season

  • Is reclaiming a top 15 spot likely?

CELTIC’S PERMUTATIONS

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Scottish European League Phase Matches counter 2025/26 = 
20/22 matches played: 3 wins + 5 draw + 12 losses

An unbeaten night for Scottish teams in Europe has been a rare occurrence this season. In another season, a home win against the Bulgarian Champions and a score draw in Italy would be a fantastic addition to the coefficient.

Unfortunately the bar is on the floor this season and so in the grand scheme of things the 0.6 points earned tonight through Celtic’s draw (0.2 points) and Rangers’ victory (0.4 points) won’t matter much.

We are still well outside the top 15, although we are still not arithmetically out of it, yet. We trail Cyprus by 3.893 Points, and Celtic could still progress, win 7 games, reach the final, earn 1.25 bonus points and put 4 points on the board while our rivals lose all remaining matches….

Of course we’re almost certainly not going to catch Cyprus, and so UEFA’s rankings look like this, which is pretty much how they’ll finish in May:

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Scottish European League Phase Matches counter 2025/26 = 
18/22 matches played: 2 wins + 4 draw + 11 losses

This season has been undeniably horrific for Scotland’s coefficient. It must be stressed how damaging our record - seven wins from forty four matches - has been. Of 54 UEFA nations, Scotland are the 32nd best performing nation this season. That’s behind Iceland, Kazakhstan, Finland, Armenia, Kosovo, Bulgaria, Ireland, Azerbaijan - and 23 others.

We’ve only added a paltry 3.4 points to our coefficient, when at least 10 points was the target for us to retain a place in the top 15 of UEFA’s rankings. Only Celtic have won any matches in the league phase, while none of the five teams have managed more than two European wins all season, including qualifiers. Dreadful.

This dismal showing has us sitting 18th in the rankings, with no chance of catching Cyprus in 15th - which is where the coefficient cliff edge kicks in.

Finishing outside the top 15 reduces Scotland to only four teams in European football, gives our runners-up Conference League Qualifiers instead of Champions League, and means the Scottish Cup winners have four qualifying rounds to navigate.

THE REMAINING TWO GAMES

ABERDEEN

The Conference League concluded in December after six matches, and Aberdeen were eliminated after a poor campaign. Admittedly, the Dons were handed the hardest set of fixtures of all 36 teams in the Conference League. It was Europa League level opposition, and Opta predicted Aberdeen to finish 36th before a ball was kicked. They finished 35th.

However, the side was clearly underperforming under Jimmy Thelin - and the Scottish Cup winning manager has since been removed from his position. Under different circumstances, Aberdeen would be aiming for the knockout rounds alongside the likes of Noah, Drita, KuPS, Zrinjski and Sigma. We will see one, or both, of Celtic and Rangers in this competition in the coming years and the Quarter Finals would be the minimum expectation for either of those two. Strasbourg, Rakow, AEK Athens, Sparta Prague, Rayo Vallecano and Shakhtar Donetsk were the top six teams this season, all of which a competently run Old Firm side should be able to match. Ahem.

As a side note, only Rapid Vienna finished below Aberdeen. This highlights the opportunity missed by Dundee United when they agonisingly lost on penalties to the Austrians in the third qualifying round, despite leading by two goals at half time in the second leg at Tannadice.

The Dons banked a little over £4m from their European campaign, earning less than £300k across their six group matches after recording just two draws. The Scottish Cup Winners are now no longer guaranteed League Phase football after Scotland dropped out of UEFA’s top 12 last season, and so Aberdeen will be the last beneficiaries of that guaranteed windfall, for several years.

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CELTIC

Martin O’Neill is back in charge at Celtic, and with that 3-1 victory in his last European match away to Feyenoord, O’Neill is now responsible for 17% of Celtic’s six away European victories since he lead them to the UEFA Cup Final in 2003 (excluding qualifiers)!

More of the same would be handy this week, as the Hoops travel to Italy to face Lewis Ferguson’s Bologna. It’s a tough trip, ahead of a potentially season defining match at Tynecastle on Sunday. Although Celtic are still in with a chance of progression, this match is arguably the least important of the three they face across 7 days (Bologna, Hearts, Utrecht).

Celtic occupy 24th position in the table with 7 points, and ten points is expected to be enough to progress. O’Neill’s men therefore probably need one victory from the two games, and obviously Utrecht (32nd) at home sound more beatable than Bologna (13th) away. It’s €450,000 per victory and €150,000 per draw at stake for Celtic this week - with further ‘league placing’ prize money available, which increases with each position in the league table.

Coefficient wise, this season is done. A complete write-off. However, any points Celtic earn in these two matches may come in handy for Scotland’s fight to rejoin the top 15 over the coming seasons, and for Celtic’s own club coefficient in future years. The Hoops will want to get themselves into the same situation Rangers are in, where a league title still has the possibility of automatic Champions League qualification regardless of how long Scotland’s Coefficient falls (explained below).

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RANGERS

Like Aberdeen before them, Rangers too are out with a whimper before the final game. Thanks, Russell. A shambolic campaign - which was their worst at this level since the Pedro Caixinha Progrès Niederkorn disaster nine years ago. Rangers have been the top contributor to Scotland’s coefficient for six consecutive seasons and so the monumental drop-off was as surprising as it was disappointing.

Of course, the remaining two games still have some degree of meaning - from both a financial and coefficient perspective. Each victory is worth €450,000, while each win adds 2 coefficient points to Rangers’ club coefficient, and 0.4 points towards Scotland’s coefficient. Ludogorets are the visitors to Ibrox on Thursday, and although the Bulgarians sit 23rd, well above Rangers in 33rd - the Gers will be favourites to - hopefully - secure a league phase victory at the seventh attempt.

RANGERS’ CLUB COEFFICIENT

Last week, I wrote about the ‘worth’ of the Scottish title to each of the teams at the top end of the table. You can read more about the possible scenarios in there, however the below graphic demonstrates the European entry points, as the league table currently stands, and assuming the Scottish Cup Winner does not finish in the top two.

As part of that analysis I highlighted again that should Rangers win the league, the above may not apply to them as they would have a very strong chance of automatic Champions League qualification. The full explanation is in that article, but in summary if ALL THREE of these permutations happen:

1. Rangers win the Scottish Premiership.

2. The Champions League Winners qualify automatically through their own domestic league (i.e. finishing in the top 4 in England).

3. Rangers have the highest club coefficient of all CHAMPIONS from outwith the top 10 leagues.

Then Rangers would qualify automatically for next season’s Champions League, where their high club coefficient should net them over £40m.

The first two are self-explanatory, while the third one may require a few lines of analysis. The below table shows a selection of potential league winners from leagues outside UEFA’s top 10, sorted by 5-year coefficient. If a team does not win their domestic league, they are removed from this table. For example, the Norwegian league has concluded and Bodø/Glimt finished 2nd, so they are no longer in consideration.

As we can see from the table, Olympiakos are Rangers’ closest coefficient challenger and it was the Greeks that benefited from this ‘spare’ entry point last season. They currently sit 3rd in the Greek Super League, but that’s only as their match at the weekend was postponed - if they win their game in hand they go back to the top.

Olympiakos currently sit 29th in the Champions League table with 5 points from 6 matches. Their two remaining matches are home to Bayer Leverkusen tonight and away to Ajax next week.

In the club coefficient, it’s one point for a win and two points for a win, and so Rangers current one point advantage is narrow. However, in the Europa League there are three ‘minimum points’ awarded to the club coefficient for any team that does not earn at least three coefficient points through league phase results.

Therefore, even if Rangers lose their remaining two matches, a further two points will be added to their coefficient total taking it to 59.25; three points ahead of Olympiakos’ current total. Rangers end of season total will either be:

• 61.25 = with two wins

• 60.25 = with one win and one draw

• 59.25 = with anything else

If Olympiakos lose either of their remaining two games, their maximum total will be 58.5 and so they would not catch Rangers in the coefficient rankings this season.

Therefore if Olympiakos lose to Leverkusen tonight (Tuesday) at 8pm, OR away to Ajax next Wednesday, then they are no longer a threat to Rangers.

WHO ELSE IS A THREAT?

Copenhagen are the next closest club to Rangers in the rankings, and they sit 24th in the Champions League with 7 points. Their two remaining games are Napoli at home and Barcelona away. Copenhagen will have to pick up points and progress to the knockout round of the Champions League in order to continue to be a challenger to Rangers, and that seems unlikely.

Furthermore, the Danes must win their domestic league to be considered. They currently sit fifth domestically, 12 points off the leaders AGF.

Copenhagen are therefore unlikely to be included in this table come the end of the season and so should not be a problem for Rangers.

Shakhtar Donetsk are the last credible challenger, and after finishing 6th in the Conference League they are straight through to the last 16 where they will face KuPs or Lech Poznan. There is every chance they win the competition, overtaking Rangers in the process - so they may be the biggest threat.

With 2 points for a victory and 0.5 points for every round reached in the Conference League, Shakhtar may only need four victories in the knockout rounds to overtake Rangers. They are currently joint top in the Ukrainian league too, and so they are definitely one to keep an eye on. If they are eliminated in the last 16, then they are no longer a threat to Rangers.

NOW OR NEVER FOR THE GERS?

Next season, Rangers lose the 2022 Europa League Final season from their rolling five-year coefficient tally. The 19 points earned that season is the largest number any team in the above table has earned in any of the last five seasons, except for Rangers themselves in 24/25 when they earned 19.25.

Losing such a huge chunk of their coefficient points means that next season Rangers will, for the first time in several years, begin a season without the near certainty that winning the league brings automatic Champions League qualification. It likely is ‘now or never’ for Rangers in terms of achieving automatic UCL entry - for the first time in the new format.

NEXT SEASON

Scotland will cling onto “the coefficient cliff edge” described earlier only for another few days, before being arithmetically assured of finishing outside the top 15. The effects of this will be felt next summer, ahead of the 2027/28 season.

Scotland’s European access points at the end of next season will become:

Grim as fuck.

This is not my bag at all so bear with me as hopefully they improve over time. This one seems a bit stuttery when it’s video of me - but the audio is fine.

Any general feedback or bits to improve for the next one would be much appreciated!

Cheers
Gavin

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Video 1: 2 minute summary of some of the points from the latest article on the ‘value’ of the title, which can be read below:

If you click your profile logo at the top right of my page then “manage subscription” you can toggle off any categories you are not interested in.

If the number of national team/World Cup emails is frustrating to you, then I would naturally prefer you turn off your notifications for that subject - rather than unsubscribing from all emails.

I plan to grow the website over the coming years which would involve ramping up fan-led coverage of individual teams too. Again, if you’d rather not see content specific to certain clubs, then please adjust your notifications to suit.

Lastly, a welcome to the several hundred Scotland fans new to the page this week! The website is best navigated on a desktop browser, where the posts will be organised in to broad categories such as coefficient, SPFL, and financial analysis.

Now, a return to some stats!

LIVERPOOL’S RECORD HOLDER

Liverpool’s social media team this week celebrated Andy Robertson becoming the Scottish player with the most Champions League appearances. A fantastic achievement for our national team captain - who has proven several times this season that Liverpool look a better side with him in it.

That record, however, comes with important caveats. It excludes qualifying matches and disregards all European Cup football played before 1992. Although I will frequently share statistics specific to the Champions League era or the SPFL era, I much prefer when a stat is a proper “all-time” stat. With that in mind, it is worth examining where Robertson actually ranks when all matches in all iterations of Europe’s premier club competition are included.

EXCLUSION OF QUALIFIERS

Firstly, in the Champions League era (since 1992/93) Manchester United’s Darren Fletcher is actually the English-based Scot with the most appearances - when qualifiers are included.

While Robertson’s 63 UCL appearances moved him one clear of Fletcher’s 62, Fletcher actually made a total of 66 Champions League appearances - including qualifiers against Dinamo Bucureşti in 2004, and Debrecen in 2005. Since then, UEFA’s access list has increasingly favoured the big four or five leagues, reducing the qualifiers they must play. Manchester United haven’t played a Champions League qualifier since 2005; while Andy Robertson has never played one!

As I am a Scottish football fan who has to watch Scottish teams make an arse of European qualifiers every summer, I dislike stats that disregard qualifiers as meaningless! They are often some of the most meaningful games of the European season. On a similar note, a stick that is often used to beat Celtic is their poor European away record - no team has lost more European away matches than the Celts this century. But lots of these matches include qualifiers….

If qualifiers are considered valid when assessing negative records, then I think they should also count when compiling “all-time” appearance and goals totals. When we expand the criteria to include qualifiers, several Scottish players move ahead of both Robertson and Fletcher in the Scottish all-time appearances list.

All of the following tables include appearances and goals scored in all matches - including qualifiers.

This article delves into the history of Scottish players in UEFA competition, including the exploits of Ally McCoist, Billy McNeill, Kenny Dalglish and more.

If you haven’t signed up yet, please take a 7-day free trial to read on, before deciding if my work is worth £20 per year. All the detailed analysis I previously shared on my twitter page to the 50,000 followers will only be available to the 1,000+ paying subscribers on this website.

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE REBRAND

As most fans will be aware, the European Champion Clubs’ Cup (more commonly known as the European Cup) was rebranded as the Champions League in 1992. The ‘big ears’ design of the trophy - first introduced in Celtic’s title winning 1967 campaign - remained the same, and indeed it is still engraved with the French “Coupe des Clubs Champions Européens”.

The current trophy is actually on to its sixth copy, as there was a rule (until 2009) that any team winning the trophy for a fifth time, or three times in a row, was permitted to keep it and a replacement would be manufactured. (The five teams to keep the trophy were Real Madrid (1966), Ajax (1973), Bayern Munich (1976), AC Milan (1994), Liverpool (2005)).

However, the top tier of European competition did not start with the rebrand in 1992, and indeed Scottish players in European football have a rich history prior to 1992. When the stats are amended to include the European Cup as well as qualifiers, Robbo falls further down the list still:

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Scottish European League Phase Matches counter 2025/26 = 
14/22 matches played: 2 wins + 4 draw + 8 losses

The Celtic fans that followed their team to Rotterdam tonight would have been doing so, as ever, in hope more than expectation. A side that has looked a shadow of themselves domestically, needing a last minute winner in four of their 8 Premiership victories so far this season.

However the performance away to Feyenoord was as fantastic as it was rare. In Celtic’s run to the 2003 UEFA Cup Final in Seville, Martin O’Neill recorded four away victories (Suduva, Blackburn, Liverpool and Boavista). Tonight’s 3-1 victory in the Netherlands means that, excluding qualifiers, it has taken 22 years for Celtic to match that tally in the competition.

Add in the two away Champions League victories in that time frame and there have been just six Celtic away victories in Europe since that 3-2 loss to Jose Mourinho’s Porto side in the ‘03 final.

This means that excluding qualifiers, Martin O’Neill is responsible for 17% of Celtic’s away European victories in those 22 years.

It was also Celtic’s biggest margin of victory in the Europa League since O’Neill’s 2-0 win at Anfield en-route to the 2003 final in the previously named UEFA Cup. It was also the hoops first win in the Netherlands - at the sixth attempt - since a 3-1 win over Ajax in Champions League qualifying in 2001. O’Neill was the manager then too, of course.

It will surely be O’Neill’s last ever European match as Celtic manager, and he leaves them in a much healthier position; in 21st place on 7 points. Ten points could well be enough to seal progression to the next stage, and two of Celtic’s remaining three matches are at home (Vs Roma & Utrecht).

But what does the victory mean for Scotland’s coefficient?

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Scottish European League Phase Matches counter 2025/26 = 
11/22 matches played: 1 wins + 2 draw + 8 losses

We are now officially half way through the ‘minimum’ number of Scottish matches - 11 of 22 have been played. With 8 losses giving us a loss rate of 73%, we can have no complaints about where the coefficient is heading. Compare that to last night’s conquerors of Celtic - FC Midtjylland. They have a 90% win rate in Europe this season, winning 9 of 10 matches; drawing the other 1-1 at home to Hibernian.

I produced the below graphic last time out, showing how a season as the 33rd best performing nation would be Scotland’s worst ever individual season. Well it’s got worse, not better.

We are now the 36th best performing nation this season, scoring fewer coefficient points than Gibraltar, Armenia, North Macedonia, Iceland, Israel, Finland, Kosovo, Ireland, Kazakhstan, Romania and Azerbaijan.

To finish in the top 15, we would need to be within the 15 best performing nations in most of the five seasons that contribute to the 5-year rolling coefficient. By the end of this season, we will have managed it just once - in the season Rangers reached the Europa League final. Since then we’ve performed (out of 55 nations); 29th, 16th, 17th, + wherever we finish this year. The recent collective performance is not deserving of a top 15 ranking.

RANGERS

Rangers are out. Not officially, but no team lost their first 3 matches and progressed last season, never mind their first four. They’ll likely need four wins to progress, as even 10 points (three wins and a draw) probably won’t be enough this season.

For Rangers, it’s solely about earning some prize money in the remaining matches (€450,000 per win), while trying to add anything to the coefficient, to help themselves and Scotland in the upcoming seasons. They’ll also be eager to end what is now their longest ever European losing run (seven matches), just one short of the Scottish record of eight consecutive European defeats set by Motherwell a decade ago.

Rangers faced difficult opponents last night of course, a team challenging at the top of Serie A. It was Rangers 15th defeat to Italians in 26 meetings, and that’s now five consecutive matches against Italian sides in which Rangers have failed to score, (Fiorentina 0-0 x2 & Napoli 0-3 x2). Classing their penalty shootout win over Fiorentina in the UEFA Cup Semi Final in 2008 as a victory, rather than a draw, and Scottish clubs have recorded just 20 wins from 85 matches against Italian opposition.

Celtic were the last Scottish side to defeat Italian opposition, famously beating Lazio home and away in the 2019/20 season. That was only the second Scottish away victory to an Italian side - ever - after Rangers beat Livorno in Italy in the 2006/07 UEFA Cup. The match was a breeze for Roma in what was their first trip to Scotland since the 1984 European Cup Semi Final, when they overturned a 2-0 first-leg deficit with a controversial 3-0 win in Rome later found to have involved referee bribery.

CELTIC

With 4 points from 4 matches, Celtic still have a chance - but require some big victories from tough matches against Italian and Dutch opposition; Feyenoord and Bologna away and Roma and Utrecht at home.

After last night’s familiar tale of Celtic ineptitude and capitulation away from home in Europe, Martin O’Neill said that he hoped 10 points would be enough for progression. Unfortunately that might not be the case.

The overall number of draws (11) is much lower in the Europa League this season - only 15% of the total number of matches, compared to nearly 25% last season. What this means is that the points tally required to finish in the top 24 is likely to be higher than the 10 points (-2 GD) that was needed last season.

Last season saw fewer draws than expected in the Champions League, meaning 11 points (and a -4 GD) were needed to progress instead of 10 points. On that basis, if 11 points are also required in this year’s Europa League, Celtic would need two wins and a draw from those remaining four matches. Difficult.

ABERDEEN

Aberdeen picked up what could be a valuable draw against the team that was leading the Conference League after two matches, AEK Larnaca. There was a glorious late chance for Aberdeen to win the game, which would have completely turned their campaign on its head.

With 7 points (GD -3) required last season (Hearts were still eliminated on goals scored with that record), Aberdeen will need at least two victories. Two home games are next, Noah and Strasbourg, and unfortunately Aberdeen must win both. They will then go into the final match in Prague probably still needing a draw to progress, due to the poor goal difference as a result of the hammering in Athens.

Aberdeen’s draw not only kept their qualification hopes alive for another week but also added €133,000 to their prize pot. With €400,000 awarded per win in the Conference League, two successive home victories would boost both their progression chances and their revenue, which is especially valuable given this could be their last league phase participation for several years (given how much harder qualification will become).

SCOTLAND

Aberdeen were the only side to earn coefficient points last night. A league phase draw is worth 0.2 points, adding to their 0.1 from the qualifiers. As noted earlier, 2.6 points is a dismal season.

For the coefficient, it’s no longer a question of if Scotland can finish in the top 15, but when it becomes mathematically impossible. The gap to the nations above has widened again, and obviously the remaining possible points have dropped by another 1.2.

Scotland sit 3.45 points behind Switzerland in 15th, with only 11 matches remaining (assuming all three Scottish clubs exit at the league phase) - giving a maximum of 4.4 points still available. After the next matchday, that will drop to eight matches and a maximum of 3.2 points.

If the gap to 15th exceeds 3.2 points after the next round, Scotland’s top-15 hopes will be confirmed as over once all clubs are officially eliminated. Even if positive results extend the wait, it would only be delaying the inevitable.

CLUB COEFFICIENT

I’ll end on an update to the club coefficient table, which will (likely) be used to award an automatic Champions League place at the end of the season - purely because I promised to update this every week, rather than there being any realistic prospect of being utilised by a Scottish team this season.

The highest ranked team in this table, THAT ALSO WINS THEIR DOMESTIC TITLE, will qualify automatically for the Champions League (assuming the UCL winner has already qualified)

You can read more in a previous weekly preview explaining why a club’s individual coefficient is still important. Despite four defeats, Rangers remain top of the table above, but they look unlikely to win the Scottish league and therefore won’t benefit from the automatic Champions League place. Even if Celtic win the Premiership, they too are unlikely to gain from it, as too many higher ranked clubs would need to either not win their own titles or be overtaken by Celtic in the club coefficient rankings.

As in previous seasons, I’ll be tracking how the current league table translates to European qualification spots at the end of this season. This analysis and graphics will remain exclusive to paid subscribers - thank you once again for supporting my work.
If you’re new here, start with a long read explainer on how the UEFA coefficient works.

THIS SEASON

As will be discussed in the “next season” section - this season’s European entry points are as good as it gets for Scottish football - and for quite some time. The falling coefficient means that if someone outside the historic big 2 were to win the title - this season is the year to do it. Hearts currently lead the table by a whopping 9 points, and their current points per game is at the pace of recent Champions.

ASSUMING SCOTTISH CUP WINNER
FINISHES 1ST OR 2ND

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Scottish European League Phase Matches counter 2025/26 = 
8/22 matches played: 1 wins + 1 draw + 6 losses

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Following last nights European humiliations for both Rangers and Aberdeen, the Opta Analysts have updated their projections for how they expect the rest of the season to play out. Thankfully, the night wasn’t a complete disaster, as Celtic were able to come from behind to secure a crucial home win over Sturm Graz. However Opta don’t think that will be enough to save the season, and our top 15 chances are now well and truly on life support.

You can refer back to Opta’s pre-tournament prediction in the below article, which included the “fixture difficulty” of all teams from each tournament.

This brief article features the likelihood of progression for Celtic, Rangers and Aberdeen, but first looks at Scotland’s chances of finishing in the top 15, according to Opta stats.

It’s not over ‘til the fat lady sings.

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Scottish European League Phase Matches counter 2025/26 = 
5/22 matches played: 0 wins + 1 draw + 4 losses

THE EUROPEAN ENTRY POINTS

The Scottish Premiership looks a much more enjoyable watch this season than the European competitions, given the poor start from all three sides in UEFA competition. We’ve had five league phase matches involving Scottish teams, which have resulted in no wins and four losses as we’ve watched several rival nations pull further ahead of us.

The performance has us as the joint 40th best performing nation out of 54 nations in the coefficient rankings for this season so far; level with Andorra and Latvia.

For those that missed it, it’s worth familiarising yourself with the European entry points on offer at the end of this season - and why this season’s reward will be as good as it gets for the Champions of Scotland - whoever that may be.

As for the European campaigns, it’s a crucial week for the coefficient this week - but when is it not. If Rangers lose the early kick off in Norway then - based on the teams that lost three opening games last season - it likely spells total elimination in the league phase. Later on Thursday, Celtic host the Austrian champions at Celtic Park. Sturm Graz weren’t particularly impressive against Rangers, despite recording a deserved 2-1 home victory 3 weeks ago. However Celtic are in as poor form as they've been for years, and so will be heading into the match low on confidence, in front of a home crowd which is largely steeped in apathy.

Austria are a key rival in the battle to finish in the top 15 and so if Graz record a second victory over a Glasgow side this month then we can say with near certainty that the coefficient race is done for this year. Any points we earn in the rest of the season would then be with a view to improving our chances in subsequent seasons.

The consequence of the coefficient drop would be felt in 18 months time, i.e. how we finish in the rankings THIS season, affects the European entry points awarded at the END OF NEXT season (i.e. the qualifiers in summer 2027)

If, as expected, Scotland finish outside the top 15, then the entry points for the four (not five) Scottish teams for qualifiers in summer 2027 would be:

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Update: Graphics in article updated after error in version emailed out

With nearly a quarter of the Premiership season played, all twelve teams will still believe they can achieve a European spot by the end of the season. Only Hearts (7) and Celtic (5) have won more than two league matches so far, and there are only five points separating Hibs in third and Livingston at the bottom of the table!

Saturday’s sports pullout in The Herald, known as “The Fixture”, featured a focus on Scotland’s falling coefficient. The opening pages were written by Graeme McGarry, centring around a telephone interview I gave him while holding my 18-month old baby last week! Hopefully it made sense to everyone, regardless of your existing knowledge of the coefficient. You can read it under the “next season” section at the end of this article.

Firstly though, as in previous seasons, I will be tracking the the European entry points on offer at the end of THIS SEASON, as it stands with the current league table. This will only be available on this website, to those that support my time and effort with a paid subscription - so thank you once again for being in this group. If you’re new here then start with a long read explainer on what the coefficient is all about.

THIS SEASON

As will be discussed in the “next season” section - this season’s European entry points are as good as it gets for Scottish football - and for quite some time. The falling coefficient means that if someone outside the historic big 2 were to win the title - this season is the year to do it.

Celtic and Rangers both look as poor as they’ve ever been, while the investment and subsequent recruitment strategy at Hearts, driven by Tony Bloom, might just have come at the perfect time. The Jam Tarts have 22 points after 8 games - a rate of 2.75 points per game. Celtic are five points further back on 17, a rate of 2.12 points per match. For Hearts to win the title, they’ll likely need at least 85 points - which is a a rate of 2.24 points per game.

History tells us that such a points total for Hearts is very unlikely. They’ve not managed more than 68 points in the top flight since 2006 (74 points) and last managed 85+ points when they finished 2nd with 90 points in 1992 (when adjusted to 3 pts for a win). Back then it was a 44 match season - equating to a rate of just 2.04 points per game. Rangers managed 105 points (adjusted) that year, a rate of 2.38 points per match.

It’s therefore undoubtedly a long way to go for Hearts, but a perfect storm could be brewing - backed by someone with a track record of bridging similar sized gaps in better leagues. Hosting the reigning Champions Celtic at Tynecastle next Sunday will be the real acid test, though. Win that to go 8 points clear and they’d have to be considered proper challengers this season. Lose it and I fear the Glasgow duopoly will never be broken. Now is as good a chance as ever - and here’s why it would be the best season to win the title.

ASSUMING SCOTTISH CUP WINNER
FINISHES 1ST OR 2ND

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