In the first 16 games of the 2026 World Cup, there have been 8 draws. That 50% rate is well above the norm, with less than 25% of World Cup group-stage matches usually ending level.
That is broadly in line with football overall, where around 1 in 4 matches are drawn. In the Scottish top flight, there have been 7,316 draws since league football was established in 1890, accounting for 22% of matches. This century, since 2000/01, that has increased only marginally to 23.7%, with 1,395 draws.
At the time of writing, each of the last four World Cup matches has been drawn, equalling the longest such run in group-stage history. After Scotland lost 2-1 to Brazil in the opening match of France ’98 on 10 June, the next four matches were all drawn: Morocco 2-2 Norway, Italy 2-2 Chile, Cameroon 1-1 Austria and Paraguay 0-0 Bulgaria.
The 50% rate is well above the 24% average for total group-stage draws, shown in the left-hand column in the image below. The 2026 World Cup group stage is still less than a quarter of the way through, so we can expect this percentage to regress towards the average over the next two weeks
However, it is already clear that we are seeing more draws in the opening round of matches than at an average World Cup. There will be 24 opening matches by the time we get through all 12 groups, with 16 of them played so far.
Even if none of the next eight matches is drawn, 2026 will still have produced the largest actual number of draws ever in the opening round of World Cup matches. That is clearly partly because this is the largest World Cup ever, but the percentage tells a similar story, in the right-hand column of the below image.
Even if there are no more draws in the opening round, 2026 will have had 8 of its 24 opening matches drawn, or 33.3%. That would be the second-highest percentage since 1982, behind only South Africa 2010, when 37.5% of opening-round matches were drawn.
Three draws from the next eight matches would mean 46% of opening matches were drawn at the 2026 World Cup, the highest percentage in World Cup history.
Is This Good News?
For a nation probably looking to progress as one of the eight best third-placed teams, is this run of draws good for Scotland?
