Celtic Champions League Playoff Preview Vs FC Kairat
Celtic Analytico deliver their Playoff round preview
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Thanks, Gavin
If you know your history
“It's enough to make your heart grow sad”
Celtic have not had to face a European qualifier since 2021, when they played a Europa League playoff tie against AZ Alkmaar. They were able to see the Dutch off thanks to a 2-0 victory at home followed by a narrow 2-1 loss in the return leg, ultimately progressing 3-2 on aggregate. That same summer was when Celtic played their last Champions League qualifier, a second-round tie against FC Midtjylland. This was the first competitive tie for Ange Postecoglou's Celtic side, where they faltered to a 1-1 draw at home and lost 2-1 away after extra time. Celtic's Champions League qualification record in the seasons prior was also abysmal, with the side reaching no further than the third round since 2017, losing to the likes of Ferencvárosi, CFR Cluj, and AEK Athens.
Celtic last played a Champions League playoff tie against Astana in 2017. A ruthless 5–0 first leg at home (Scott Sinclair ×2, James Forrest, plus two own goals) effectively settled the tie. The away leg was chaotic—1–1 at half-time, three Astana goals around the hour - but late finishes from Olivier Ntcham and Leigh Griffiths steadied things as Celtic went through 8-4 on aggregate.
Now, it's FC Kairat: the first leg is scheduled for Wednesday August 20th at Celtic Park, with the return leg on Tuesday August 26. Qualification this season is fortunately just one single round, a contrast to Brendan Rodgers' previous tenure, when four were required. This is familiar ground for the manager, but a fresh challenge for a squad accustomed to automatic entry to the group/league phase.
Over the past three seasons, Celtic have steadily raised their European floor, culminating in a knockout playoff with Bayern: Nicolas Kühn put them ahead in Munich before Alphonso Davies' late equaliser settled the tie. The platform was Celtic Park - wins over Slovan Bratislava, BSC Young Boys and RB Leipzig, plus a draw with Club Brugge; only Bayern left Glasgow with a victory. The away lesson was harder won: a 7-1 schooling at Dortmund was followed by a controlled 0-0 at Atalanta and a pragmatic point at an injury-hit Dinamo Zagreb. Celtic ended the initial Champions League phase with a 4-2 defeat to Aston Villa. Although essentially a dead rubber for Celtic, this victory propelled Aston Villa to the top 8 places, enabling them to bypass the next playoff round. All of them point the same way for this tie: build a cushion at home, then manage risk and tempo on the road.
The Bould Bould Celts
“The team they call the Celtic is the best that can be found”
Celtic come into the tie on good form with two league wins, three goals scored, and two clean sheets, having left it late to find a winner against St Mirren on flag day, thanks to Luke McCowan. However, they stepped up a level in performance against Aberdeen, running out comfortable 2-0 winners with goals from Nygren and Hatate.
In the League Cup at the weekend, Celtic made it three wins from three this season - despite six changes to the starting lineup - as Falkirk were eased aside 4-1 at Celtic Park. The expected starting 11 will likely be very similar to our opening two league games, with most of those rested at the weekend likely to return.
Last week, I wrote for this site about the need for Celtic to recruit new wingers. However, there’s frustratingly still no signs of any new incomings, and even if Celtic were to sign them - it's unlikely they would be ready to start the first leg.
The main points of contention will be RW, as Yang started on Flag Day, and Forrest started against Aberdeen, so there is no clear favourite yet. However, I do believe Forrest will start. The other position potentially up for grabs is ST, as since rejoining Celtic permanently Adam Idah has underwhelmed massively in the pre-season and the first two league games. Yamada would have been hoping for the chance to impress Rodgers in the League Cup against Falkirk, however it was Johnny Kenny who was surprisingly given the nod to start.
Tactically, the setup has not undergone significant changes. I won't go into too much detail here. However, I will highlight some of the key phases of play.
In a deep build-up, we see the two centre-backs in the box, a flat three just outside the box with the #6 and the two full-backs, the two #8s in front of them. However, we can see one of those drops deeper too, to assist in the build-up. The front three occupy the halfway line, with the wingers particularly staying high and wide to stretch the defence. From this position, the typical passing options are the CBs or the #6, but there is always the long option to one of the front three, something that Celtic should utilise more often in European settings.
It's once Celtic have beaten the initial press and transitioned into higher build-up play, a key change becomes apparent. Last season, with Taylor, we often saw one, if not both, full backs inverting alongside the #6 to gain a numerical advantage in midfield. This, in tandem with the space in the wide channel being less congested, allowed wingers to be in one-on-one situations regularly.
With Taylor's departure and Tierney's arrival, Rodgers appears to have opted for the full-backs to stay wide instead of inverted (however, we have found both inverting on occasion, with Johnston more so). With this change, the #8s no longer stay wide and will play narrower, with this space being occupied by the full-backs, who will look to overlap or underlap in the wide channel. So far, we have seen that they typically opt for the latter.
For the sake of brevity, I won't go into tremendous tactical detail on the setup, but the slight change in build-up was worth highlighting.
We don't care what the … say
“What the hell do we care?”
Now we move on to the opposition, FC Kairat. I reached out to some English-speaking accounts in Kazakhstan, but unfortunately, I did not receive a response from them. Therefore, my analysis of Kairat will be based on watching 120 minutes of their second-leg game against Slovan Bratislava, as well as information I can find online.
Under the management of Rafael Urazbakhtin, Kairat set up with a compact midfield block and a very high backline, aiming to spring offside traps and an aggressive sweeper-keeper. In possession, they look to counter early by using their pace and width, but in doing so, they also commit many players forward. With loose control of possession, the goal they conceded was an absolute gift, as the defender, under no pressure, passed the ball directly to an opposition player. They can also be easily countered. Slovan Bratislava had numerous occasions where they had a numerical advantage in transition, breaking into Kairat's half, but poor finishing and final balls prevented them from scoring. The match, which went the whole duration including penalties, was taking its toll on the Kairat players. Extra-time on top of the lengthy travel saw several players going down with cramps, but they still managed to fashion chances. One last notable aspect of the match was the number of fouls and yellow cards, with a combined 50 fouls (24 for Kairat) and 12 yellow cards (4 for Kairat). They are not afraid to foul in an attempt to stop the opposing team from countering, as evidenced by their average of 3.5 yellow cards per match in their UCL run so far.
Kairat play a 4-3-2-1/4-3-3 with the above seeming to be their strongest 11, but Gromyko will be missing for the first leg due to suspension. Their qualification run so far can be summarised as poor on the road, strong at home. In the previous three rounds, they have drawn 1-1 in Slovenia, lost 2-0 in Finland and lost 1-0 in Slovakia. They have been faultless at home however, where they have won 2-0, 3-0 and 1-0. They can particularly find strength in Kazakhstan, not just from the lengthy travel away teams have to endure, but also because the Almaty stadium is 829m above sea level. That's nearly twice as high as any other club in qualifying, which causes issues for teams not accustomed to the conditions. The story feels similar to Bodø/Glimt, a team that plays good progressive football but makes the most of their environment to maximise home advantage.
Lastly, just focusing on some key players, it's very hard not to hone in on the recently turned 17-year-old Satpayev. He became the youngest ever UCL scorer, netting a goal against Olimpija in the first qualifying round. Earlier this year, he agreed a £3.5 million move to Chelsea after impressing on trial there at the tail end of 2024 - he’ll move to Stamford Bridge when he turns 18 next summer. Fellow striker, the 27-year old Portuguese Jorginho, is also in a rich vein of form and one of their key attacking threats.
I still pray to God, we go on another run
“And beat the best in Europe like Jock Stein's already done”
The task is clear; Celtic must win the tie to secure a 4th consecutive season of Champions League (now) league phase football. The financial gulf between the premier European competition and the others is growing bigger every single year, and for Celtic to retain financial dominance in Scotland, they must continue to participate. However, that's the view of the money men.
From a fan's perspective, absolutely nothing in football beats hearing that anthem, the accompanying Celtic Park roar, and the excitement of facing off against the best teams in Europe and triumphing. Celtic folklore is littered with scalps against European giants; Barcelona, Manchester United, and AC Milan all suffered defeat at Celtic Park, but that was the all-too-distant past now. We have not competed at the same level in the last 5-10 years as we did 20-25 years ago, albeit due to the widening financial gap; not just to the top 5 European leagues but also to the Dutch and Portuguese leagues, among others.
Celtic must continue to make strides this season, again achieving a place in the top 24 to qualify for the knockout playoff, with the aim of a favourable draw. Still, most of all, to progress, to finally get that knockout record monkey off their back. That would be Brendan Rodgers' crowning achievement in both his spells at Celtic.
This starts with the upcoming home leg, and Celtic must win the game comfortably to put themselves firmly in the driving seat before the trip to a difficult away venue.