Celtic vs FK Crvena Zvezda Preview
CelticAnalytico give their thoughts ahead of Europa League matchday 1
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“Celtic is a tale of adventure, success, failure, exasperation and hope that will never cease to unfold”
Celtic enter their first Europa League phase, with a trip to Serbian Champions FK Crvena Zvezda, who are often referred to as Red Star Belgrade. The hoops last played in the Europa League group stage in the 2021/2022 season, competing in a group alongside Bayer Leverkusen, Real Betis, and Ferencváros. Despite finishing with nine points, they narrowly missed out on qualification for the knockout stages, dropping to the Conference League, but this was an early stage of what would become a dominating Celtic side under Postecoglou. There were some admirable performances - losing by only one goal away from home to both Real Betis and Bayer Leverkusen, and winning a double header home and away to Ferencváros before earning a surprise final matchday victory against Real Betis.
Looking back further, Celtic have a relatively decent history of success against Serbian opposition, with a record of three wins, one draw, and two defeats, including a 2-1 aggregate win over Vojvodina Novi Sad on their way to winning the European Cup in Lisbon. Only one tie between the two Champions of their respective nations has ever been played - in the 1968/1969 European cup - as Celtic thrashed Red Star Belgrade 5-1 in the first leg in Glasgow, before they played out a 1-1 draw in Serbia. However, the Celts are winless on Serbian soil, and with the new format, there is no cushion of trying to recover the points lost at Celtic Park.
“Here we go again; we’re on the road again”
Celtic will not be the only former Champions of Europe in this match, as FK Crvena Zvezda also famously won the big cup in 1991, beating Graeme Souness’ Rangers 4-1 on aggregate en-route to lifting the trophy. The Serbs are a seasoned competitor in European football, having played 395 ties in various UEFA competitions (Celtic with 426), and they are also the most successful club in their country, with 70 domestic trophies.
This season it’s business as usual domestically for FK Crvena Zvezda, as they remain at the top of the Serbian SuperLiga, having won all seven matches played while boasting a goal difference of +25. Their last game came in the Eternal Derby, where they won 2-1 away at Partizan, in the same ground that Hibs recorded a 2-0 victory in just last month. However, like Celtic, Red Star also suffered the ignominy of being knocked out of the UCL play-offs by a team far weaker on paper, against Cypriot side Pafos.
So far this season under head coach Vladan Milojević they have typically played a 4-4-2 with top goal scorer Aleksandar Katai (11 goals in 7 league matches) and recent free transfer signing from Inter Milan, Marko Arnautović, leading the line. They are an experienced squad too, with their last starting 11 having an average age of 28.3. Much like Celtic, they dominate the domestic league in terms of statistics and results, leading in possession, chances created, shots, shots on target, and touches in the opposition’s box.
“We Will Write Our Own Story”
Despite the mostly positive results, except for the European tie against FC Kairat, it’s no secret that Celtic have not started the season at their free-flowing best. It’s the performances that disappoint the manager, players, and fans - against a backdrop of protests against the board. A corner has hopefully been turned however, following a dominant attacking display against Partick Thistle in the League Cup this past weekend.
Celtic will likely approach the game pragmatically, aiming to limit the opposition’s chances and minimise the raucous crowd’s impact, while hitting on the counter. This approach, developed by Rodgers had varying amounts of success last season following a thrashing against Borussia Dortmund. Still, there are key differences between then and now, including the lack of depth upfront, the loss of Kyogo in January, the departures of Kuhn and Idah in the summer, and Jota’s injury, which will presumably rule him out for the entire league phase campaign.
Celtic’s lacklustre scoring streak so far compared to Crvena Zvezda may be a cause for concern for the manager. However, the key attacking threat of Benjamin Nygren has now been added to with the reinforcements of the dynamic Tounekti and experienced striker Iheanacho - who have both started their Celtic careers with a goal - there is hope that the team will now build on the positives.
For the starting 11, although it may be somewhat up in the air amongst the front three, the first choices for goalkeeper, defence, and midfield all look fairly set. Only young Colby Donovan is the odd one out from being the clear first choice, covering for the injured Johnston and Ralston.
The front three will aim to provide a balance of defensive energy, particularly from Maeda and Balikwisha, who can both provide an outlet to get runners in behind and hit the opposition on the counter - albeit Balikwisha is yet to show this in the green and white. The dribbling and ball carrying of Tounekti could be key, and he received widespread praise for this aspect of his game at the weekend.
This match may be a significant indicator of how Celtic’s season will likely go; a loss would see another key test failed for this team. A draw will likely suffice, considering how difficult the match will be, yet it will likely not define our Europa League qualification chances. A win would be most welcome, particularly given the poor optics following a disappointing window, dropping out of UCL qualification, and not playing at a consistently high level since the beginning of the season.
At the same time, it’s a great chance to propel the team forward and put behind the poor end to last season and start this season. The manager promised the outside noise won’t affect him or the team. Time will tell, but a convincing victory against a decent level of opposition will go a long way to proving him right!
I'll be surprised to see Balik on the right wing. We need someone to take their man on and he's not the answer in that position.
Balikwisha won’t start wide right