Coming Back From Two Down at Half Time

A look at the last time it happened for each Scottish club, as well as two Rangers hat-tricks within 7 days!

In the 97th minute at Rugby Park, Julian Araujo struck the winner for Celtic as they fought back from a 2-0 half time deficit to win the match 3-2. It could prove to be a crucial three points come the end of the season, if Celtic go on to lift the league title again.

The victory moved Celtic to within 3 points of Hearts at the top of the table, and one point behind Rangers who occupy second spot. Crucially though, the Hoops still have a game in hand, to be played away to Aberdeen at the beginning of March.

It was just the third time this century that Celtic have come back from a two goal half time deficit to win the match, a feat they average once every 10 years. The last time it happened was a 4-3 win at Fir Park ten years ago - thanks to a 90th minute Tom Rogic goal against Motherwell in December 2016.

We have to go back a further ten years to find the next time Celtic fought from 2 goals down at half time to win; a 3-2 win at Tynecastle in January 2006, thanks to two Stephen McManus goals in the final four minutes.

Incredibly Celtic have also previously come from THREE goals down at half time at Rugby Park, as they claimed a 3-3 draw there in November 2011, en route to re-claiming the title after Rangers had won three-in-a-row.

Part of the reason for the rarity of the feat is simply due to the rarity of a team going in at half time two goals up on Celtic. And when they do, they tend to hold on to the win the game.

This article will now show how many times all teams in Scotland have come back from a 2 goal half time deficit, including the last time it happened for each club. It ends on some hat-trick stats for Rangers, following Youssef Chermiti’s treble in the top of the table clash against Hearts.

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SCOPE

It’s important to note that the below stats only include when a team was trailing by two or more goals at half time. It therefore won’t capture when a team comes back from a two goal deficit at any other time in the match. For example, earlier this season Hearts came from 3-0 down against Motherwell to claim a 3-3 draw; but the half time score was only 1-0 in Motherwell’s favour. Similarly, Hibs came back from 3-1 down to claim a draw at home to Dundee United in September - but the half time score was 2-1 to United, so isn’t included.

Rangers made a habit of coming from 2 goals down last season, including a 4-2 win at Rugby Park in Barry Ferguson’s first game in interim charge. As that half time scoreline was 2-1, that - and any other comebacks like it - are not included.

The following stats only include league matches where the half time deficit was 2 or more goals.

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THE DATA

In an analysis of over 22,500 Scottish football matches since 1995, there have been 2,978 matches where a team was losing at half time yet avoided defeat come full time; 13% of all matches. Motherwell do this most often, they’ve avoided defeat from a half time losing position on 91 occasions since 1995, slightly ahead of Dundee United and Kilmarnock (89 each), while Rangers (86) and Hearts (82) have also been good value to mount a comeback over the years.

Of these nearly 3,000 comebacks, only 250 of those matches were from a deficit of 2 or more goals; 8.4% of comebacks, or 1.1% of all matches.

There were only nine occasions from 22,500 matches where a team trailed by 3 goals at half time and came back to draw the match, and no team came back to win. The first graphic shows all Scottish clubs to have played in the Scottish leagues since 1995, sorted by number of times they have come back from a 2 goal deficit to avoid defeat: