Hibernian Vs FC Midtjylland: The Preview
Can the largest Easter Road support in nearly 40 years help keep the Wolves at bay?
Hibs host Midtjylland tomorrow in the second leg of their UEFA Europa League second qualifying round tie. The aggregate score stands at 1-1 after a hard fought first leg in Herning, Denmark. Jamie McGrath’s early free kick put Hibs ahead before Aral Şimşir equalised with an even more impressive free kick of his own in the second half, leaving the tie finely poised. The match kicks off at 8pm live on Solid Sport - the Swedish streaming platform that has covered many Scottish teams in UEFA qualifiers in recent seasons.
There are only 200 away supporters, which means this will officially be the largest number of Hibs fans in Easter road in nearly 40 years!
Win or lose, Hibs know that they will not only play in a third qualifying round tie next week, but ALSO will be in the playoff round draw on Monday lunchtime. This of course means at least one more Hibs away tie (uh huh uh huh) - but there could be as many as six more by January. This article will cover their routes from Thursday night to a league phase spot come the end of August.
THE WOLVES & THE DANGERMAN
Scottish clubs have had a poor record in qualifiers over the last couple of decades, and often fans attribute it to facing teams from “summer leagues” who are already deep into their campaigns. It is thought that the sharpness and cohesion that the opposition has established can catch our newly assembled squads cold. There are no conclusive stats to back this up, but assuming there is some truth in it then it is perhaps fortunate that, although the Danish Superliga is already underway, it’s only two games old.
If the attacking stats from those two games are anything to go by though, then it’s almost a certainty Hibs will concede in Edinburgh. Midtjylland have hit 9 goals in the first two matches, a 3-3 home draw followed by a 6-2 away victory, so it may be difficult to keep Midtjylland - known as “the Wolves” - at bay.
Franculino Djú, the 21-year-old Guinea-Bissau internationalist scored a hat-trick in that thumping victory at the weekend, following his brace in the first league match. Five goals already indicate that last season’s top scorer is already on track to eclipse the 16 goals he managed in all competitions. Signed on a free from Benfica’s under-23s, it would now likely cost over £10m to pry him away from Jutland. He’s already made 76 appearances, and with 49 goal involvements already, the towering striker will be short odds to make it 50 at Easter Road.
Although the 6-2 victory is impressive, it may be advantageous to Hibs that it came on Monday night rather than Sunday. Although the Wolves did make some changes it still means limited preparation time before flying into Edinburgh. Here’s hoping the Danes also faced some kind of delay due to the Air Traffic Control problems that made the news on Tuesday. Maybe the SFA-Aviation advisory relationship can be mutually beneficial.
Although Midtjylland scored nine, they also conceded five goals in the same two games. Their apparent defensive fragility, added to Hibs’ promising showing in the away leg, will give David Gray and his team real optimism that Hibs can go on the front foot and hurt the Danish back line. Martin Boyle scored a similar number of goals as Franculino last season, and has shown he still has the pace to get at the opponents. He had one chopped off in Denmark and was frequently involved in the chances the Hibees were creating.
IF HIBS PROGRESS
If Hibs manage to finish the job and progress from Europa League qualifying round two to round three, their minimum UEFA prize money for the season will increase by €375,000. That’s because a win over the Danish runners-up means the earliest they could now be eliminated is the playoff round; triggering an additional participation payment and a higher elimination fee.
In this route though, once progression from Europa League QR2 is secured, Hibs wouldn’t be focused on elimination fees just yet. Next up would be unseeded Fredrikstad - a currently mid table Norwegian side who finished sixth last season - and a team who, on paper, pose less of a threat than Midtjylland. Crucially, Hibs would once again have the advantage of playing the second leg at Easter Road.
Victory over Midtjylland and then Fredrikstad would guarantee at least Conference League league phase football.
In this utopia, the Hibees would join Scottish Cup winners Aberdeen in the unseeded half of the Europa League playoff draw, where potential opponents include Braga, PAOK, Viktoria Plzeň, and Legia Warsaw. It’s a win-win situation: even in defeat at that stage, Hibs would parachute safely into the Conference League phase.
IF HIBS ARE ELIMINATED
If Gray’s men are eliminated tomorrow night, they’ll drop into the Conference League and face the winners of Partizan Belgrade vs Oleksandriya of Ukraine in the third qualifying round. Partizan hold a 2-0 lead going into the second leg in Belgrade and are strong favourites to progress.
If it is Partizan, one key benefit for Hibs is that if they eliminate the Serbians, they would then be seeded in the Conference League playoff round - thanks to Partizan’s higher UEFA coefficient. That would guarantee they avoid the big hitters at the final hurdle, unlike two seasons ago when they had the bad luck of drawing Aston Villa. This year’s seeded pot will include some top sides such as Crystal Palace, Fiorentina, Mainz, Rayo Vallecano, and around 14 others - likely to include AZ Alkmaar, Shakhtar Donetsk, and Sparta Prague.
Avoiding them would be massive, and instead, Hibs would be drawn against one of the unseeded sides, with the toughest likely to include Utrecht, Santa Clara, Charleroi, and Hajduk Split. Beat whichever team they’re paired with, and Hibs would secure a place in the Conference League league phase for the first time ever - a huge achievement and an equally as big boost to Scotland’s falling UEFA coefficient.
Coefficient points are awarded after 120 minutes if it gets that far, so if it’s still a draw after two hours of play on Thursday night, Hibs will add 0.1 points to Scotland’s Coefficient - regardless of the result of penalty kicks. Penalties are only used to determine who advances, the match result is officially still a draw.
An outright victory on the night - in 90 or 120 minutes - would add 0.2 points to the tally, and keep Scotland on the right track. The target this season is at least 10 points, but more likely 11+, and so maximising points in these early ties could be key when it’s all said and done come the end of the season.
IF HIBS PROGRESS BUT LOSE TO FREDRIKSTAD
One unfortunate consequence of UEFA conducting qualifying draws before the previous round has been played is that this route (beating Midtjylland) may end up more difficult than the one Hibs would face if they lost to Midtjylland. In the scenario of losing to Midtjylland - Hibs drop into the Conference League and face Partizan Belgrade - followed by an unseeded team in the playoff round.
However, if Hibs instead reach the Conference League playoff round by beating Midtjylland and then losing to Fredrikstad, they’d have to face a seeded team in the playoff draw. That’s because, via this route, it’s Hibs’ own UEFA coefficient that would be used - not Partizan’s.
As mentioned earlier, this could result in history repeating itself, with the Hibees once again paired with one of the strongest sides in the competition, such as the sole English entrant. It’s for that reason there’s a very slim silver lining in losing to Midtjylland: if Hibs do make it to the Conference League playoff round via that route, they’d be guaranteed seeded status.
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