Historic Post-Split Form
Proof - if proof was needed - that it's highly likely everyone will drop points
Now that the post-split fixtures are out, it’s worth looking at each club’s overall record in the final five games this century. There are 19 teams that have competed in the 25 seasons of top-flight football since the introduction of the split in 2000/01. From those 25 seasons, there have been 24 seasons of post-split fixtures, as the covid-19 season was curtailed early before the split was reached. Only Celtic, Aberdeen and Motherwell have appeared in all 24 editions, with Gretna (1), Falkirk (5) and Partick Thistle (7) having been involved least often.
ALL TIME POST-SPLIT RECORD
The all-time table is sorted by win percentage, with only two teams achieving more than a 50% win record after the split. No prizes for guessing who those two are - but you may be surprised at the next three teams in the list.
Yes, Inverness Caledonian Thistle - who currently sit second in the third tier - have the third best post-split win % in top flight history. Of course, most of those seasons were in the bottom six, but it’s still an impressive record for the highlanders. They have only lost 21 of their 60 matches after the split across 12 seasons, just one more defeat than Dunfermline, despite having played four more seasons - and 20 more post-split matches - than the Pars.
As far as the title race goes, Hearts fans may be concerned at their historic post-split record. They’ve only won 33 matches after the split - across 22 seasons of top flight football. In fact, they’ve lost more post-split matches than any other team; a whopping 52 of their 110 split fixtures (47%).
In terms of the fight to avoid the relegation playoff, there’s not much between the records of Kilmarnock, Aberdeen and St. Mirren - with the caveat that Aberdeen have been in the top six more than the other two. Motherwell should fancy their chances of holding on to 4th place, despite their recent stumble in form, as their 36% post-split win record is significantly better than Hibs’ 29% - the third worst of all top-flight teams this century.
UNDEFEATED POST-SPLIT RECORDS
With a three-way title race that will hopefully go down to the wire, fans of each side will be hoping that their side will win all five of their post-split fixtures and take the league trophy. However history shows that this is highly unlikely to happen. There are only six occasions in 24 seasons where any team has won all 5 of their post-split fixtures, in either the top or bottom six.
We can therefore reasonably expect - based on this season and historic results - that all three sides will drop points after the split. The below table includes those six occurrences, but also the 14 instances of a team going undefeated after the split, with a 4-1-0 record.
