Historical Scottish Premiership Split Imbalances

A 25 year look at which teams have 'benefited' most often with the post-split fixtures

There have been 19 teams that have competed in the Scottish top flight since the current 12-team split format was introduced 25 years ago. In that time we’ve had 24 seasons where post-split fixtures were played (the league was curtailed early in 2019/20 due to the onset of covid-19). Of those 24 seasons only Celtic, Aberdeen and Motherwell have been ever-present in the division, while Gretna (1), Falkirk (5) and Partick Thistle (7) have featured in the least number of top-flight seasons.

The post-split fixtures have been confirmed today with my predictions last week having 100% accuracy

Due to the nature of the split format, all 19 clubs have - on at least one occasion - had an enforced visit to an opponent for a third time in a season (instead of two). This is because the SPFL correctly believe that an overall balance of 19 home/19 away fixtures takes precedence over individual club balances of playing 2 home/2 away against every opponent in their half of the table.

SPFL Chief Operating Officer Calum Beattie: “The most important thing is to try to ensure clubs finish the season having played 19 games at home and 19 away.”

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THE 18/20 IMBALANCE

However, depending on which clubs finish in which half of the table - a perfect 19/19 balance for all clubs is not always possible. Although it has been achieved in every season sine 2018, this season it was not. That’s because half of the clubs play 16 home games before the split (Rangers, Dundee United, Hearts, Motherwell, Kilmarnock, St. Johnstone), and the other half play 17 (Celtic, Hibs, Aberdeen, St. Mirren, Ross County, Dundee). For the perfect 19/19 balance to be possible for all 12 clubs, 3 teams in each half of the split need to be ‘due’ 3 home matches after the split.

As this season’s split has resulted in only 2/6 teams in the top half being ‘due’ 3 home post-split matches (Rangers and Dundee United) - another top 6 team had to receive a third home match - and therefore the advantage of a 20 home/18 away fixture split. St. Mirren were chosen as the team to receive a 20/18 split in their favour - as they are least likely to be involved in the crucial battle for third place. It also resulted in the least number of top half fixture reversals (1 - Hibs visiting St. Mirren for a third time), keeping everyone else’s fixtures perfectly balanced.

The number of home matches ‘due’ after the split, and which teams were ‘due’ to visit each team for a 2nd time

The opposite is true in the bottom half, there were therefore 4/6 teams ‘due’ 3 home matches (Hearts, Motherwell, Kilmarnock & St. Johnstone) and therefore one of them had to receive only two games at home, resulting in the disadvantage of only 18 home matches and 20 away. As I predicted last week, Motherwell were chosen firstly because it has the least direct impact on the relegation fight, but more importantly it was the solution which resulted in the least number of bottom 6 fixture reversals (1 - Ross County visiting St. Johnstone for a 3rd time)

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HISTORICAL IMBALANCES

This is the 12th season where the fixtures did not balance up at 19/19 for all 12 teams, but only the first time since 2018. You can see below the teams that have been affected by this over the years. Interestingly, there’s only one team from Glasgow that makes the list…..

The 12 seasons out of 24 in which a perfect 19/19 split isn’t possible - and the teams affected each season.

While an 18/20 split doesn’t happen every season (12 out of 24 seasons) a team having to go to another ground three times in a season is almost guaranteed to happen every year. This can be controversial to some fans, as to them it may feel that their team is ‘always’ sent to an opponent three times in a season.

Below is the 25-year breakdown, with two charts:

• Beneficiaries: how often each team has hosted a team three times

• Disadvantaged: how often each team has had to visit a team three times