After nearly three decades of watching on from the outside while the rest of the world attends the quadrennial party that we are never invited to, Scotland are back.
The 207 days since that euphoric night at Hampden Park, when Scotland defeated Denmark 4-2 to secure automatic qualification, have flown by. FIFA have done their level best to ruin it, of course. From ticket allocations to drink prices, transport arrangements and allowing the reselling of disabled tickets at an unlimited price, so long as they receive 30%, FIFA have made the choice that maximises profit at the expense of the match-going fan at every juncture.
They embody everything wrong with modern football, and the treatment by the host nation of some visiting referees, teams and fans should be enough to see president Gianni Infantino resign, given all the promises and guarantees he has made regarding this tournament.
But FIFA cannot ruin it, no matter how hard they apparently are trying to. Scotland are back on the big stage and, with the expansion of the tournament, we are rightly odds-on with the bookies to make history and finally play a knockout match at a major tournament.
This article looks at Scotland’s World Cup record, what we need to do to progress, the potential knockout dates, Lawrence Shankland’s potential historic scoring run and much more.
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Scotland’s World Cup History
This will be Scotland's ninth World Cup after a truly torturous 28-year absence. It felt like we would never qualify again, with the younger generation living off tales of the glory days, when we were one of only five teams to qualify for every World Cup from 1974 to 1990, alongside Argentina, Brazil, Italy and West Germany. Our full record across the previous eight tournaments ultimately all show the same outcome - eliminated in the group stages. However, that doesn’t tell the full story.
When analysing some of our previous failed finals, Scotland managed a tally of at least three points in four of eight tournaments, when adjusting for three points for a win. In the current format in 2026, three points will be enough for several teams to progress in third place, even with a negative goal difference.
In 1974, Scotland became the first team to be eliminated despite not losing a game, a cruel fate suffered by only three other nations since: Cameroon in 1982, Belgium in 1998 and New Zealand in 2010. One win and two draws in a group containing Brazil was a fantastic achievement and, in the modern format, would result in qualification with a game to spare, rather than the goal difference elimination it resulted in back then.
Similarly, the four points earned in 1978 and 1982 would be enough to progress in 2026 in near enough 100% of simulations, but it meant elimination on goal difference, again, back then. So, although our World Cup record is poor, with no team having played in more competitions without ever progressing, the context is that we have been unlucky.
Also, given we are now at 48 teams in a World Cup tournament, Scotland would have to win two knockout ties to technically go further than ever before. Given we have qualified for 16-team World Cups, "the last 16" is strictly speaking our best-ever showing, something we have managed four times.
If we progress with a win against Haiti while losing to Morocco and Brazil, but are then eliminated in the last 32, can we truly say it was a better effort than Willie Ormond's men in 1974, who were undefeated in the group stage, including against the 1970 world champions Brazil?
Do not get me wrong, I fly to Boston on Wednesday hoping to witness history next Friday night as a Scotland team progresses to the knockout stage of a major tournament for the first time. And I would probably be in tears, not just because of the price of beer in the stadium.
But realistically, I think it is fair to say that for it to truly be Scotland's most successful World Cup ever, we need to not only reach the last 32, but win a knockout tie to reach the last 16 too. That is not too much to ask, surely?
What Is Needed to Progress?
So, without getting ahead of myself (spoiler: this whole article is me getting ahead of myself), it is obvious that we must beat Haiti. As an aside, if Hearts striker Lawrence Shankland scores against Haiti, it will be the 23rd time a Scotsman has scored in three consecutive matches, and just the fifth time this century:
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