SCOTLAND'S COEFFICIENT'S WEEKLY REVIEW
March 9th 2024
RANGERS CLIMB THE RANKINGS!
Rangers' battling 2-2 draw in Lisbon on Thursday moved them up to 25th in the UEFA coefficient rankings - their highest ranking since 2007/08 when they were ranked 24th after reaching the UEFA cup final.
It also ensured Scotland continued to cling on to being ranked as a top 10 league for another week; and the repercussions of dropping out would mainly be felt by Celtic! This is because the entry rules change in the new format next season. If the Champions League Winner also qualifies for the Champions League automatically through their domestic league, then their ‘spare’ entry will now go to the club with the highest coefficient in Champions League qualifying. As it stands that club would be Rangers, and so if Scotland drop out of the top 10 then we’ll enter next season in the bizarre situation where if Celtic win the league they’d have a Champions League qualifier, however if Rangers win the league they’d almost certainly gain automatic Champions League access!
Rangers’ impressive coefficient has them currently 7 points ahead of 29th placed AC Milan who are realistically the only team still in Europe that could overtake them this season. It’s 2 points for a win, 1 for a draw, and a bonus point for each round reached; so 25th should be safe for the Gers. Looking instead upwards; West Ham, Ajax & Arsenal are the three teams directly above them that Rangers could potentially catch; but only if the Gers progress further than them.
The away draw saw their odds of progressing increase from 29.6% to 39.4% - according to OptaStats. They’ve earned £17m from UEFA so far this season – with an extra £1.5m on offer if they can overcome those odds to progress next week. Were they to make the semis it's a further £2.4m, and for the dreamers out there – were they to reach the final again it would be a further £4m as runners up & £10.3m if they won the trophy! Rewarding.
AUBAMEYANG TOP SCORER? DON’T FORGET THE KING!
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scored two for Marseille as they eased past Villarreal 4-0 to all but reach the Europa League quarter finals. Those two goals have seen him declared as the Europa League all-time top goalscorer on 33 goals in most media outlets. However, that's only if you discount goals scored in qualifying. Including qualification goals, which of course in Scotland we are, then Auba has 36. He’s still a few short of the all-time top goalscorer - the one and only “King of Kings” at Parkhead, Mr Henrik Larsson. He has a phenomenal 40 Europa League/UEFA cup goals in total - with 9 coming in qualifying. King.
OPEN AND SHUT CASE FOR RODGERS
Brendan Rodgers has been charged with "Disciplinary rule 72" by the SFA - where a member of team staff cannot criticise the decisions of the officials "to indicate incompetence". Whether he had a point or not is up for debate after some strange decisions at Tynecastle last week, but the charge that he may have indicated “incompetence” of the officials seems an open and shut case. Rodgers said: "when I see that level of incompetence, and that's the only word I can use.” There doesn’t seem to be much in the way of a defence to the rule he’s been charged with which means he’ll almost certainly serve a touchline ban. The lower end minimum suspension is a 2-match ban and the top end is 8 matches. The hearing is at the end of the month and so we can expect Rodgers will therefore have at least a touchline ban for Livingston away and the all-important derby against Rangers at Ibrox at the start of April.
BARCELONA’S BOGEY TEAM
Last week saw the 17th anniversary of Dundee United’s famous 1-0 win over Barcelona in 1987, with their social media team sharing the clip of Kevin Gallaghers stunning early goal, and the jubilant celebrations in the Shed End at Tannadice. That was remarkably United’s third win over Barcelona, and they’d then also win the return leg 2-1 in Spain. They’d go on to reach the UEFA Cup final that season, and although they’d lose 2-1 on aggregate to Gothenburg, they’d end that season as the 4th ranked side in Europe, while Rangers & Aberdeen were both ranked in 10th position. It’s the only time Scotland have had three teams ranked inside the top 10 of the UEFA rankings. Those stunning victories over Barca meant that Dundee United were, and still are, the only team to play Barcelona more than once and have a 100% winning record. They played them 21 years earlier in 1966, winning 2-1 in Spain and 2-0 back in Dundee. Epic.
EURO 2024 RESALE PLATFORM OPENS!
UEFA's official resale platform, for those that want to sell unwanted Euro 2024 tickets, has opened for people to list their tickets for sale to other fans. Of course, UEFA in their wisdom sold over 45% of all tickets in November, three weeks before the draw was even made. This meant that those that bought tickets through this general public ballot bought them not knowing which matches they would be for. This resale portal is therefore likely to have high availability as tens of thousands of fans look to shift unwanted tickets for countries they don’t support. Fans with no tickets will have several short windows to try and purchase them this month – starting with a 24 hour window from Wednesday 13th March at 10am. There will almost certainly be a good number Scotland tickets available, but still not enough to satisfy demand. Gold dust.
NEW CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINANCES
UEFA’s budget for season 2024/25 has been released, with total revenue forecast to increase from €3.72bn to €4.52bn. The Champions League receives a mammoth 74% of all available funds after the deductions have made, and so it sees the biggest increase in prize pool from €2.17bn to €2.54bn. The exact methodology used to split the funds between the teams won’t be known until summer, but we do know roughly how it will look. Under the previous format, the overall funds in both the Champions & Europa League were split through four revenue streams; 25%: starting fees, 30%: performance payments, 30%: based on 10-year coefficient and lastly 15%: TV market pool.
In the new format, the 10-year coefficient and the TV market pool will be combined to create the “value” pool, to lessen the impact of the 10-year coefficient. This was due to criticism over the use of this coefficient as it rewarded past performance and even trophy wins from decades ago rather than recent performance. For example, it would result in Real Madrid getting an ADDITIONAL €37m before a ball was kicked, and the lowest ranked team would receive only an extra €1.1m. Although the bulk of the money is still distributed through this “value” stream, the % of total pot has been reduced from last year’s 45% (10-year and TV market pool) to next year’s 35% (value pool)
The performance related fixed amount (money per point earned in the league phase) has the biggest overall rise - in the Champions League there’s a 54% rise taking the total performance pool from €600m to €925m. Despite this huge increase, the amount per win for each club will actually likely decrease slightly due to the number of group stage (league phase) matches also increasing by 50%, from 96 to 144.
We’ll know the exact methodology for revenue distribution in the summer – but what’s clear is that if Rangers win the league, their high coefficient will result in them earning north of £30m regardless of their performance. If it’s Celtic, their relatively poor coefficient will mean they would earn less than Rangers would, but it would still be at least in the £25m-£30m mark. That’s more than the entire SPFL TV deal. Chasm.
SOLIDARITY PAYMENTS
The gap between the haves and the have nots will continue to widen under the new European football format, but there are some examples of positive changes for Scottish clubs. Firstly, the money for clubs eliminated in qualifying will rise 25% from €105m to €132m. The solidarity payments (money awarded to all SPFL clubs that DON’T participate in league phase football) is up a massive 120%, from €140m to €308m (7% of the total prize money, up from just 4% this season)
"Solidarity payments" are paid by UEFA to each federation, to distribute to their clubs that don't participate in UEFA group stages. The Solidarity payments pot is split 80%/20%; 80% goes to the countries that DO have a club competing in the Champions League group stages. If your country does not have a representative in the Champions League, then your federation will only get a split of the 20%. On average this has meant around €100m to be split between the ~15 leagues that DO have a team competing in the Champions League and only €25m to be split between the remaining ~40 leagues that DON’T have a team competing in the Champions League
The percentage rise of 4% of overall income to 7% coupled with the actual monetary increase from €140m to €308m means it will be roughly €246m shared between ~16 nations that DO have a team in the Champions League (€15.4m per nation) compared to just a €61m pot to share between the ~40 leagues that DON’T have a team in the Champions League (€1.54m per nation). Therefore the 9 (hopefully less) Premiership clubs that don’t compete in the League Phases next season can expect to be paid up to £1.5m each in the new format. This is as much as TEN TIMES more that “the rest” will receive, compared to if we DON’T have a team in the Champions League
It's worth noting that the Solidarity payments are distributed through national associations, as each association sees fit, but can ONLY be used by clubs to invest in “good” initiatives such as their youth development programmes or local community schemes. Sustainability.