Scottish Premiership Post-Split Fixtures Prediction

Forecasting the Split: One team will get 20 home games and one team will get 18

There have been 19 teams that have competed in the Scottish top flight since the current 12-team split format was introduced 26 years ago in 2000. Of those 25 seasons only Aberdeen, Celtic and Motherwell have been ever-present in the division, while Gretna (1), Falkirk (6) and Partick Thistle (7) have featured in the fewest number of top-flight seasons.

This season will be the 25th season where “post-split fixtures” have been played (the league was curtailed early in 2019/20 due to the onset of covid-19). In each of those 25 campaigns, the SPFL (and previously the SPL) have determined the post split fixtures, balancing a range of guidelines to arrive at the optimal solution. This can often be controversial, especially when the discourse online tends to reflect how one’s team has been ‘shafted’ yet again!

For me, I find it interesting and can totally sympathise with the task facing the SPFL. Often, there aren’t many solutions to the “post-split fixture dilemma”. A solution that suits all fans of all clubs rarely exists.

This article will examine:

• How many points required to finish 6th since 2001

• Fixtures each club is ‘due’ this season

• Fixture reversals

• The 18/20 fixture imbalance

• The guidelines

• Predicted post-split fixtures & dates

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HOW MANY POINTS FOR 6TH?

After 27 matches, Falkirk have already amassed an impressive 39 points and so it feels like a safe bet to assume the Bairns already have a top six finish in the bag.

Their points total in their first season back in the top flight is impressive, and they are 11 points clear of both Aberdeen and Dundee United - albeit both have 2 games in hand on Falkirk. Every top six team has amassed at least 40 points after 33 matches and one more Falkirk victory takes them to 42 points.

42 points will almost certainly be enough for the top 6.

On only three occasions in 25 years has the team in 7th had greater than 42 points after 33 matches; in 2018/19 (St. Johnstone on 44 points), 2014/15 (Hamilton on 43 points) and 2005/06 (Motherwell) on 44 points.

The number of points the team in 6 has amassed after 33 matches, and how many points clear of 7th place they were. The average is 43.6 points and a 3.4 gap to 7th.

Such is Falkirk’s form, this may be the first season since 2018/19 to see a gap of more than 2 points between 6th and 7th at the split! On three previous occasions the ‘split’ has been decided by goal difference, with teams level on points after 33 games

If we assume that the top six is already set and there will be no changes by matchday 33, we can make an early prediction on the post split fixtures now. If this changes, and Aberdeen or Dundee United remain in the race for the top 6 in five games time, I will republish these predictions to include an alternate top 6 possibility.

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WHICH FIXTURES ARE ‘DUE’?

In an ideal world, the teams that finish in the top six would all play the exact post-split fixtures they are ‘due’, resulting in all top six teams playing each team twice at home and twice away, for 19 home and 19 away games in total. The same would then be true for the bottom six, and there would be no room for complaints from any fanbase!

For this to happen the league would need to go into the split with three teams in the top half having played 16 home matches, and three teams having played 17 at home. Then, for teams that have played 17 home games, they would need to have the ‘correct’ two opponents ‘due’ at home. Those that have played 16 home games would also need to be ‘due’ the exact three opponents they’ve only hosted once so far this season.