This article will be a daily summary of how things stand for Scotland until they are eliminated from the 2026 World Cup.
After a disappointing result at the impressive Boston Stadium in Foxborough, Scotland’s World Cup campaign surely has at least two more games still to run.
With eight of the 12 groups sending their third-placed team to the last 32, it would take either a total collapse against Brazil on Wednesday night in Miami or a serious dose of bad luck for Scotland to be eliminated in the group stage. Spoiler alert - even a total collapse may still see us through.
A win against Brazil would send Scotland through automatically in one of the top two positions. We would finish second behind Morocco, unless the African Champions* fail to beat Haiti at the same time, in which case Scotland would top the group.
A draw in Miami would also send Scotland through, but as one of the best third-placed teams. A defeat would leave us waiting for the remaining groups to finish to see if we’ve done enough, although Scotland could still progress even after a heavy loss to Brazil, as this article will show.
Scotland cannot finish in the top two with a draw. Even if Morocco lost to Haiti, they would finish above us on head-to-head after beating us in Boston.
If Scotland do go out, it would likely be on goal difference. That would be the fourth time in nine World Cup appearances that Scotland have been eliminated on a tiebreaker.
The graphic from an earlier article, showing our horrendous tiebreaker record, is attached again here. In the first version of this graphic, I mistakenly omitted Norway from 1994. They finished fourth in their group on goals scored, with all four teams level on exactly four points.
As an aside, three points for a win was not introduced at the World Cup until USA 1994. Scotland’s Italia ’90 elimination, as one of the lower-ranked third-placed teams, would also have come down to goal difference under the modern system. Our one win would have put us level with the Netherlands’ three draws, so we would have gone out on goal difference again, rather than by a point under the old two-points-for-a-win system.
The Current Third-Place Rankings
The third-place table is starting to take shape, with eight of the 12 groups having now played two matches. Over the next two days, every team will move to within one match of completing the group stage, so we will have a much clearer idea of where Scotland stand going into Wednesday night’s game against Brazil. But for now, it looks good.
Will 3 points be Enough?
I will update this permutations graphic daily, showing which results Scotland want elsewhere. After the Scotland Vs Brazil, I will also include goal-difference scenarios for the third-placed teams, if Scotland finish third.
For now, the results shown are the ones required to guarantee that a group’s third-placed team finishes on two points or fewer. If that happens in four of the 12 groups, every third-placed team on three points would progress.
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