This article will be updated daily until Scotland are eliminated from the 2026 World Cup.
As if Scotland’s performance was not hard enough to take, the results since then have all but eliminated us. According to simulation models such as Opta’s, in less than 48 hours Scotland have fallen from an 85% chance of progression to 40%, then 25%, then 14%, and now to around just 7%.
The three-goal defeat to Brazil started the drop. Since then, South Africa have beaten Korea Republic, Ecuador have beaten Germany, and Australia and Paraguay played out a predictable 0-0 draw that sent both teams through.
Scotland’s Tournament History
Scotland ended the group stage, and now almost certainly their World Cup, with only one goal scored. That is their second-lowest goal tally at a World Cup, level with 1986 and ahead only of 1954, when they failed to score in either match.
When our four European Championships are included, Scotland have won only seven major tournament matches in 38 games. We have also never won more than once at a single tournament.
The last time Scotland scored more than once in a major tournament match was in 1992, against the Commonwealth of Independent States. The CIS team was created after the Soviet Union had qualified for Euro 1992, allowing a combined post-Soviet side to take up the place already earned in qualifying.
The Current Third-Place Rankings
Scotland now sit 8th in the third-place rankings, but could still finish as high as 6th if results go our way. That is, of course, very unlikely given the results still required.
What Do Scotland Need To Progress?
If third-placed teams in nine or more groups finish on three points or more, the eight best sides will be ranked by points, goal difference, goals scored, team conduct and then FIFA ranking.
Scotland need four other third-placed teams to finish below them, either on points or on goal difference. The graphic below shows the specific results now required in the remaining groups - we need any combination of four groups to go our way. Unfortunately, we’ve gone from needing four from ten, to four of six.
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