How Title Race Could Be Decided by A Play-Off
Example scenarios to show how the title could hinge on a play-off if the top sides finish completely level
The earlier article on historic post-split form showed that it is highly unlikely that any team will win all five matches after the split, and it’s also an outlier for any team to even remain unbeaten. Therefore it looks increasingly likely that the title will be won with less than 80 points for only the second time since the birth of the current 12-team split format in 2000/01.
The narrow gap between the top three, and the likelihood of all dropping points, increases the chances of the title being decided on goal difference compared to how rarely it actually occurs. That’s according to Kevin Maguire, a subscriber on this website who created a simulator in python for the remaining 36 matches in the division - before running the simulations one million times.
His results had Rangers winning the title in 36.5% of the simulations, Hearts in 31.4%, and Celtic in just 20.2% of simulations - although we both agree the Celtic % feels slightly low at this stage.
These simulations are exactly that - simulations - but it is incredibly exciting that they found that the title was decided on the final day in nearly one third of the simulations. Helicopter Saturday, here we come!
GOAL DIFFERENCE DECIDER
What caught my eye most in Kevin’s email was that 11.9% of his simulations had the title decided on goal difference. Of course, it still doesn’t happen in 88% of cases, but that is a notably high probability at this stage given how rarely it occurs.
Following on from, but unrelated to, Kevin’s simulations, I’ve put together three sets of example results for the remainder of the season, demonstrating how each team could win the title on goal difference. For Celtic, I’ve made it even more interesting - showing how they can win the league on goals scored!
For simplicity I’ve made every winning result 2-1, which makes it “easier” for Rangers to take the title on goal difference, given they currently lead Hearts by 4 goals and Celtic by 9 goals. In the scenario where Celtic win the league, all wining results are 2-1 except for Celtic’s final two matches, to enable them to with the league on goals scored.
RANGERS WIN ON GOAL DIFFERENCE
