The Race For European Football This Season!
This season's European entrants as the table currently stands
Update: Graphics in article updated after error in version emailed out
With nearly a quarter of the Premiership season played, all twelve teams will still believe they can achieve a European spot by the end of the season. Only Hearts (7) and Celtic (5) have won more than two league matches so far, and there are only five points separating Hibs in third and Livingston at the bottom of the table!
Saturday’s sports pullout in The Herald, known as “The Fixture”, featured a focus on Scotland’s falling coefficient. The opening pages were written by Graeme McGarry, centring around a telephone interview I gave him while holding my 18-month old baby last week! Hopefully it made sense to everyone, regardless of your existing knowledge of the coefficient. You can read it under the “next season” section at the end of this article.
Firstly though, as in previous seasons, I will be tracking the the European entry points on offer at the end of THIS SEASON, as it stands with the current league table. This will only be available on this website, to those that support my time and effort with a paid subscription - so thank you once again for being in this group. If you’re new here then start with a long read explainer on what the coefficient is all about.
THIS SEASON
As will be discussed in the “next season” section - this season’s European entry points are as good as it gets for Scottish football - and for quite some time. The falling coefficient means that if someone outside the historic big 2 were to win the title - this season is the year to do it.
Celtic and Rangers both look as poor as they’ve ever been, while the investment and subsequent recruitment strategy at Hearts, driven by Tony Bloom, might just have come at the perfect time. The Jam Tarts have 22 points after 8 games - a rate of 2.75 points per game. Celtic are five points further back on 17, a rate of 2.12 points per match. For Hearts to win the title, they’ll likely need at least 85 points - which is a a rate of 2.24 points per game.
History tells us that such a points total for Hearts is very unlikely. They’ve not managed more than 68 points in the top flight since 2006 (74 points) and last managed 85+ points when they finished 2nd with 90 points in 1992 (when adjusted to 3 pts for a win). Back then it was a 44 match season - equating to a rate of just 2.04 points per game. Rangers managed 105 points (adjusted) that year, a rate of 2.38 points per match.
It’s therefore undoubtedly a long way to go for Hearts, but a perfect storm could be brewing - backed by someone with a track record of bridging similar sized gaps in better leagues. Hosting the reigning Champions Celtic at Tynecastle next Sunday will be the real acid test, though. Win that to go 8 points clear and they’d have to be considered proper challengers this season. Lose it and I fear the Glasgow duopoly will never be broken. Now is as good a chance as ever - and here’s why it would be the best season to win the title.
ASSUMING SCOTTISH CUP WINNER
FINISHES 1ST OR 2ND
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