The Race For European Football This Season!

This season's European entrants as the table currently stands

With 7 matches left to play, and just two games before the league splits in two, the title race remains extremely tight in Scotland. It’s the first time since 1994/95 that any team other than Rangers have had a better goal difference than Celtic at this stage of the season. Celtic have been champions in 13 of the past 14 seasons, yet currently sit in third place - five points behind Hearts and two points behind Rangers in second. Both Motherwell and Hearts not only have a better GD than the Hoops, but both have also lost three fewer matches.

In the top six, only Falkirk (12) have lost more games than Celtic (8).

The Scottish Premiership title as it stands today, after 31 matches played.

In fact, after Dundee United beat Celtic twice in a row at Tannadice for the first time since 1991, Celtic have now suffered the most league defeats since the 1999/00 season under John Barnes (9 defeats).

If Celtic go on to win the title now with at least eight defeats, it will be the most defeats by a champion in a ≤ 38 match season since Celtic in 1978/79 (9 losses).

By contrast, despite having their worst start to a league campaign since 1978, Rangers have lost the fewest matches of all teams in UK league football (two defeats, both to Hearts). It’s Hearts that still lead the way, though - as they have done for six months.

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EUROPEAN ENTRY POINTS

As in previous seasons, I will frequently track and update on how the current league table translates to European qualification spots at the end of this season. I’ll also include “example opponents” - this is who each team would face in qualifiers, based on current coefficient rankings and current league tables around Europe.

This analysis and graphics will remain exclusive to paid subscribers - thank you once again for supporting my work. If you’re new here, start with a long read explainer on how the UEFA coefficient works. Take a 7-day free trial before deciding if you think £25 per year is value for money.

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THIS SEASON

As will be discussed in the “next season” section - this season’s European entry points are as good as it gets for Scottish football - and for quite some time. The falling coefficient means that if Hearts were to win the title in the coming years - this is the year to do it!

There are two distinct paths for our European entrants, and it depends on who wins the Scottish Cup. This is now a lot clearer after we are down to the final four; St Mirren Vs Celtic and Dunfermline Vs Falkirk.

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1.) ASSUMING CELTIC WIN THE SCOTTISH CUP