Scottish European Qualifying Matches results 2025/26 =
20/20 matches played: 5 wins + 8 draws + 7 lossesScottish European League Phase Matches counter 2025/26 =
18/22 matches played: 2 wins + 4 draw + 11 lossesThis season has been undeniably horrific for Scotland’s coefficient. It must be stressed how damaging our record - seven wins from forty four matches - has been. Of 54 UEFA nations, Scotland are the 32nd best performing nation this season. That’s behind Iceland, Kazakhstan, Finland, Armenia, Kosovo, Bulgaria, Ireland, Azerbaijan - and 23 others.
We’ve only added a paltry 3.4 points to our coefficient, when at least 10 points was the target for us to retain a place in the top 15 of UEFA’s rankings. Only Celtic have won any matches in the league phase, while none of the five teams have managed more than two European wins all season, including qualifiers. Dreadful.
This dismal showing has us sitting 18th in the rankings, with no chance of catching Cyprus in 15th - which is where the coefficient cliff edge kicks in.
Finishing outside the top 15 reduces Scotland to only four teams in European football, gives our runners-up Conference League Qualifiers instead of Champions League, and means the Scottish Cup winners have four qualifying rounds to navigate.
THE REMAINING TWO GAMES
ABERDEEN
The Conference League concluded in December after six matches, and Aberdeen were eliminated after a poor campaign. Admittedly, the Dons were handed the hardest set of fixtures of all 36 teams in the Conference League. It was Europa League level opposition, and Opta predicted Aberdeen to finish 36th before a ball was kicked. They finished 35th.
However, the side was clearly underperforming under Jimmy Thelin - and the Scottish Cup winning manager has since been removed from his position. Under different circumstances, Aberdeen would be aiming for the knockout rounds alongside the likes of Noah, Drita, KuPS, Zrinjski and Sigma. We will see one, or both, of Celtic and Rangers in this competition in the coming years and the Quarter Finals would be the minimum expectation for either of those two. Strasbourg, Rakow, AEK Athens, Sparta Prague, Rayo Vallecano and Shakhtar Donetsk were the top six teams this season, all of which a competently run Old Firm side should be able to match. Ahem.
As a side note, only Rapid Vienna finished below Aberdeen. This highlights the opportunity missed by Dundee United when they agonisingly lost on penalties to the Austrians in the third qualifying round, despite leading by two goals at half time in the second leg at Tannadice.
The Dons banked a little over £4m from their European campaign, earning less than £300k across their six group matches after recording just two draws. The Scottish Cup Winners are now no longer guaranteed League Phase football after Scotland dropped out of UEFA’s top 12 last season, and so Aberdeen will be the last beneficiaries of that guaranteed windfall, for several years.
CELTIC
Martin O’Neill is back in charge at Celtic, and with that 3-1 victory in his last European match away to Feyenoord, O’Neill is now responsible for 17% of Celtic’s six away European victories since he lead them to the UEFA Cup Final in 2003 (excluding qualifiers)!
More of the same would be handy this week, as the Hoops travel to Italy to face Lewis Ferguson’s Bologna. It’s a tough trip, ahead of a potentially season defining match at Tynecastle on Sunday. Although Celtic are still in with a chance of progression, this match is arguably the least important of the three they face across 7 days (Bologna, Hearts, Utrecht).
Celtic occupy 24th position in the table with 7 points, and ten points is expected to be enough to progress. O’Neill’s men therefore probably need one victory from the two games, and obviously Utrecht (32nd) at home sound more beatable than Bologna (13th) away. It’s €450,000 per victory and €150,000 per draw at stake for Celtic this week - with further ‘league placing’ prize money available, which increases with each position in the league table.
Coefficient wise, this season is done. A complete write-off. However, any points Celtic earn in these two matches may come in handy for Scotland’s fight to rejoin the top 15 over the coming seasons, and for Celtic’s own club coefficient in future years. The Hoops will want to get themselves into the same situation Rangers are in, where a league title still has the possibility of automatic Champions League qualification regardless of how long Scotland’s Coefficient falls (explained below).
RANGERS
Like Aberdeen before them, Rangers too are out with a whimper before the final game. Thanks, Russell. A shambolic campaign - which was their worst at this level since the Pedro Caixinha Progrès Niederkorn disaster nine years ago. Rangers have been the top contributor to Scotland’s coefficient for six consecutive seasons and so the monumental drop-off was as surprising as it was disappointing.
Of course, the remaining two games still have some degree of meaning - from both a financial and coefficient perspective. Each victory is worth €450,000, while each win adds 2 coefficient points to Rangers’ club coefficient, and 0.4 points towards Scotland’s coefficient. Ludogorets are the visitors to Ibrox on Thursday, and although the Bulgarians sit 23rd, well above Rangers in 33rd - the Gers will be favourites to - hopefully - secure a league phase victory at the seventh attempt.
RANGERS’ CLUB COEFFICIENT
Last week, I wrote about the ‘worth’ of the Scottish title to each of the teams at the top end of the table. You can read more about the possible scenarios in there, however the below graphic demonstrates the European entry points, as the league table currently stands, and assuming the Scottish Cup Winner does not finish in the top two.
If Celtic finish third, but won the Scottish cup, then they and Motherwell would both move up one slot in the above table. Hibs in fifth would then join the bottom of the graphic. For the above to play out exactly as depicted, the Scottish Cup Winner would have to come from outwith the top five. Aberdeen are 8th…
As part of that analysis I highlighted again that should Rangers win the league, the above may not apply to them as they would have a very strong chance of automatic Champions League qualification. The full explanation is in that article, but in summary if ALL THREE of these permutations happen:
Rangers win the Scottish Premiership.
The Champions League Winners qualify automatically through their own domestic league (i.e. finishing in the top 4 in England).
Rangers have the highest club coefficient of all CHAMPIONS from outwith the top 10 leagues.
Then Rangers would qualify automatically for next season’s Champions League, where their high club coefficient should net them over £40m.
The first two are self-explanatory, while the third one may require a few lines of analysis. The below table shows a selection of potential league winners from leagues outside UEFA’s top 10, sorted by 5-year coefficient. If a team does not win their domestic league, they are removed from this table. For example, the Norwegian league has concluded and Bodø/Glimt finished 2nd, so they are no longer in consideration.
As we can see from the table, Olympiakos are Rangers’ closest coefficient challenger and it was the Greeks that benefited from this ‘spare’ entry point last season. They currently sit 3rd in the Greek Super League, but that’s only as their match at the weekend was postponed - if they win their game in hand they go back to the top.
Olympiakos currently sit 29th in the Champions League table with 5 points from 6 matches. Their two remaining matches are home to Bayer Leverkusen tonight and away to Ajax next week.
In the club coefficient, it’s one point for a win and two points for a win, and so Rangers current one point advantage is narrow. However, in the Europa League there are three ‘minimum points’ awarded to the club coefficient for any team that does not earn at least three coefficient points through league phase results.
Therefore, even if Rangers lose their remaining two matches, a further two points will be added to their coefficient total taking it to 59.25; three points ahead of Olympiakos’ current total. Rangers end of season total will either be:
61.25 = with two wins
60.25 = with one win and one draw
59.25 = with anything else
If Olympiakos lose either of their remaining two games, their maximum total will be 58.5 and so they would not catch Rangers in the coefficient rankings this season.
Therefore if Olympiakos lose to Leverkusen tonight (Tuesday) at 8pm, they are no longer a threat to Rangers.
WHO ELSE IS A THREAT?
Copenhagen are the next closest club to Rangers in the rankings, and they sit 24th in the Champions League with 7 points. Their two remaining games are Napoli at home and Barcelona away. Copenhagen will have to pick up points and progress to the knockout round of the Champions League in order to continue to be a challenger to Rangers, and that seems unlikely.
Furthermore, the Danes must win their domestic league to be considered. They currently sit fifth domestically, 12 points off the leaders AGF.
Copenhagen are therefore unlikely to be included in this table come the end of the season and so should not be a problem for Rangers.
Shakhtar Donetsk are the last credible challenger, and after finishing 6th in the Conference League they are straight through to the last 16 where they will face KuPs or Lech Poznan. There is every chance they win the competition, overtaking Rangers in the process - so they may be the biggest threat.
With 2 points for a victory and 0.5 points for every round reached in the Conference League, Shakhtar may only need four victories in the knockout rounds to overtake Rangers. They are currently joint top in the Ukrainian league too, and so they are definitely one to keep an eye on. If they are eliminated in the last 16, then they are no longer a threat to Rangers.
NOW OR NEVER FOR THE GERS?
Next season, Rangers lose the 2022 Europa League Final season from their rolling five-year coefficient tally. The 19 points earned that season is the largest number any team in the above table has earned in any of the last five seasons, except for Rangers themselves in 24/25 when they earned 19.25.
Losing such a huge chunk of their coefficient points means that next season Rangers will, for the first time in several years, begin a season without the near certainty that winning the league brings automatic Champions League qualification. It likely is ‘now or never’ for Rangers in terms of achieving automatic UCL entry - for the first time in the new format.
NEXT SEASON
Scotland will cling onto “the coefficient cliff edge” described earlier only for another few days, before being arithmetically assured of finishing outside the top 15. The effects of this will be felt next summer, ahead of the 2027/28 season.
Scotland’s European access points at the end of next season will become:
Grim as fuck.
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