Hearts are the only team who could win the Scottish Premiership tonight. A win at home to Falkirk coupled with a Celtic loss at Fir Park would bring an end to 40 years without a non-Old Firm winner of the top flight.
Falkirk occupy 6th position, five points behind Hibs. In order to move up to 5th and take the final European place that’s only available if Celtic win the Scottish Cup, Falkirk would have to beat Hearts and Rangers in their final two games. They’d then also need the Hibees to fail to win both of their final two fixtures. Unlikely, so it’s almost a dead rubber for the Bairns.
Furthermore, the Jambos will be up against a Falkirk side missing several key players including Scott Bain, Leon McCann, Filip Lissah, Lewis Neilson and Barney Stewart. With Hearts looking to complete their first season unbeaten at home in the top-flight since 1985/86, the game in Gorgie should be a formality. If Hearts score first, it could be a matter of “how many” - and we’ll get to the minutia detail of what each additional goal could mean come Saturday.
It does seem unlikely then that former Hearts coach John McGlynn, who spent more than a decade at Tynecastle, will be able to mastermind the downfall of Hearts tonight in front of an expectant crowd. But even if he does, it wouldn’t be curtains for Hearts yet, as Celtic can’t seal the title for themselves tonight. At worst for Hearts, it’s guaranteed to still be an achievable dream on the final day. I’ll go through all of the permutations, but first a discussion on whether this is ‘now or never’ for the boys in maroon.
Now or Never?
For many of those in the country that don’t follow a team in green and white, Hearts winning the league would be a refreshing change from the norm most have known all their lives. Celtic fans will be hoping that it’s business as usual of course, and that a squad full of players that win every year will be able to get it over the line, again. While for Hibs fans, a maroon trophy parade through Edinburgh would be a miserable way for their 150th anniversary season to end.
From my point of view, I believe a Hearts title win this week would great for Scottish football, but I think it’s more important that this type of season becomes the norm, with title races going down to the final week every year. The television deals with Sky, Premier and BBC all run until 2029 and so renegotiation discussions will probably start some time next year. If we consistently have genuine title challenges from three teams, forcing Sky into broadcasting more matches than ever before, this can only put the SPFL in a stronger negotiating position.
In March I spoke about how I didn’t believe this was ‘now or never for Hearts to win the league’, but instead it was probably ‘now or never for Hearts to win the league with fewer than 80 points’, given how poor both Celtic and Rangers had been this season.
It has been the worst season in decades - under numerous metrics - for both halves of Glasgow. It is a reasonable assumption that one, if not both, will improve next season and return to regularly reaching points tallies of 85+. However, the reason I don’t believe it’s now or never for Hearts is the recruitment process they will have in place thanks to their exclusive partnership with Tony Bloom’s Jamestown Analytics. I wrote back in May last year why I thought Bloom’s impending investment could genuinely see Hearts challenging for the title, given his track record of disrupting clubs with much greater budgets elsewhere.
If Hearts are on the same trajectory that Brighton or Union St. Gilloise were under Bloom, then there will be improvements at Tynecastle next year, too. And then the year after that. This can only be a positive thing for the Scottish game, and if we continue to see improvements at the likes of Motherwell, Hibs and Aberdeen over the coming years then it will be more than I suspect Sky Sports may not be the only broadcaster looking for a seat at the negotiating table.
Forgive me for one last act of self-acclamation, in an effort to demonstrate to new subscribers that I sometimes offer predictions of value - I point you to some basic stats I shared in October which indicated Hearts were in with a real chance of challenging for the title this season.
Even before that, I was on the Celtic Exchange Podcast with host Tino in August, and predicted that Hearts would finish second, with a coin toss needed to decide which of the Old Firm would take the title. Smarter men than me, namely Brighton fan and football finance expert Kieran Maguire and The Huddle Breakdown’s James Dailey have both spoken incredibly highly of Tony Bloom and the transformative effects he can have at a football club. For these people, I suspect it won’t be a shock if Hearts were win the title.
Let’s look at how this can happen this week.
Permutations for the title
Obviously for both Hearts and Celtic, if they win two games then they take the trophy. However as Hearts have a 1 point advantage going into tonight, they might not need to do that, and so all scenarios demonstrate what Hearts require to win the title.
Some of the permutations in the following graphic are simple. If Motherwell beat Celtic at Fir Park for the second time this season, Hearts are Champions tonight if they defeat Falkirk. If both teams win, then Hearts ‘only’ need to avoid defeat at Celtic Park on Saturday to become Champions.
